Will Dean previews this weekend's eagerly-anticipated UFC 287, which sees Jorge Masvidal take on Gilbert Burns.
MMA betting tips: UFC 287
2pts Kelvin Gastelum to win by decision at 13/8 (BetVictor)
1pt Alex Pereira to beat Israel Adesanya at 11/10 (General)
1pt Jorge Masvidal to beat Gilbert Burns at 7/2 (General)
UFC fans have been treated to a star studded schedule already in 2023, with seven title fights already taking place in the first quarter of the year. The most recent pay-per-view saw Birmingham’s Leon Edwards retain his title against former champion Kamaru Usman, and there is an argument to be made that that fight could foreshadow the outcome of UFC 287’s main event, where Alex Pereira defends his belt against Israel Adesanya.
All or Nothing for Adesanya
The circumstances for both rivalries are intriguingly similar – where both competitors have faced one another on multiple occasions in combat sports and, despite dominating their most recent encounter for over four rounds, the challenger tarnished the legacy of the champion with a come-from-behind knockout finish in the dying moments.
Last event’s winning tip on Edwards to win the trilogy fight was heavily influenced by the psychological challenges that Usman would have had to endure – but the mental hurdles that Adesanya will face against ALEX PEREIRA are even greater. The Last Stylebender has failed to defeat his Brazilian adversary in three combat sports meetings now, being finished via strikes on two occasions. Even in their most recent showdown at UFC 281, where Adesanya was demonstrating the perfect performance, he still fell short with just three minutes left.
With Edwards’ victory over Usman last month, the total number of fallen former champions that have successfully re-claimed their title in immediate rematches is just three from 15 attempts. In most instances, the previous result was initially considered an anomaly, and the former champion was expected to reclaim their belt as the betting favourite and resume normality within the division. In actuality, given the aforementioned record, that is rarely the case.
As with Usman recently, I can understand why the oddsmakers have chosen to once again deem Adesanya the favourite in Saturday night’s showdown, as the former champion was demonstrating his class and almost scored a finish of his own at the end of the first round. However, having spent more time in the cage with one another, it is fair to assume that both parties will have evolved their gameplans and approaches to the upcoming bout – implying we may see a contest that barely resembles the previous iteration.
The pressure is solely focused on Adesanya here, and with conversations about his longevity in the sport becoming increasingly more common, I think there is more than enough reason to place a wager on the man who has knocked him out twice. For me, ALEX PEREIRA TO WIN is a must bet at 11/10 this weekend.
Miami Vice
The rise and fall of fan favourite JORGE MASVIDAL has been one of the more interesting narratives in the UFC in recent years. Despite being a respected journeyman with a near 20 year MMA career, Gamrebred only became a household name in 2019 when he broke the record for the fastest ever UFC finish, landing a flying knee on Ben Askren in just five seconds.
The organisation did a good job in managing Masvidal’s ascent to stardom initially, creating the “BMF” title for a showdown with the equally popular Nate Diaz. The matchmakers took things too far when they granted Masvidal a short notice title fight against then-champion Kamaru Usman, where a one-sided decision loss reminded fans that perhaps Gamebred’s popularity had eclipsed his actual talent.
This didn’t stop the UFC from booking a second title fight, where Masvidal suffered his first ever knockout loss. With the aura of invincibility shattered, they capitalised on his friends-turned-foes narrative with Colby Covington and forced him to extend his losing streak to three.
When a popular fighter has a fall from grace, they suddenly turn from overrated to underrated – with Masvidal being no exception. He faces Gilbert Burns on Saturday night, with the Brazilian currently sat at the eye-watering price of 1/5. Given the current public perception of both fighters, I can understand the short odds on Burns, but stylistically this fight could play out much, much closer.
Burns has always been known as a highly talented grappler, but his evolution in recent years has seen him fall in love with his striking. Durinho did successfully find a quick submission in his most recent win over Neil Magny, but it was a refreshing and uncharacteristic approach from the Brazilian. With that dominant performance fresh in everyone’s minds, as well as Masvidal’s recent maulings at the hands of the division’s two best wrestlers, you could be forgiven in thinking this was a foregone conclusion.
The reality is that Masvidal has actually been a historically hard fighter to control on the mat, where even the likes of Covington and Usman struggled at times. Burns is nowhere near the calibre of either man in regards to his takedown threat, and there is reason to question whether or not he will even instigate the grappling in this bout.
We saw from Burns’ performance against the notorious Khamzat Chimaev that he has no problem throwing his gameplan out the window and giving the fans the slugfest that they are screaming for, and the Miami-based crowd will absolutely be vocal as they cheer on their hometown hero. With that in mind, I would have absolutely no problem in backing the 7/2 JORGE MASVIDAL TO WIN if this one descends into chaos.
Foot on the Gas
Former Middleweight title challenger KELVIN GASTELUM headlines the preliminary card, where he faces rising prospect Chris Curtis in an intriguing showdown. The bout looks to be one of the more competitive fights on the card, with oddsmakers shifting both fighters into odds-on territory at various points throughout the week.
Gastelum looks likely to remain as the slight favourite by the time the cage door closes, and I’m inclined to agree with that conclusion. A quick glance at his record reveals five losses in his last six, but the overall calibre of the 31-year-old’s competition during that time does give his recent struggles some pardon. Former champions Adesanya and Robert Whittaker, as well as former challengers Jared Cannonier and Darren Till make for an impressive strength of schedule, and a step down in competition against Curtis should serve Gastelum well.
Gastelum’s other loss during that stint came against Jack Hermansson, who also holds a victory over Curtis, and will likely have provided the blueprint to beating The Action Man. In their 15 minute contest at UFC London last year, the Norwegian grappler was able to frustrate Curtis and take advantage of his low volume striking approach, staying at range and preventing him from landing a knockout blow. Curtis’ most recent victory over fellow striker Joaquin Buckley looked to be heading down the same route, before a second round knockout for The Action Man changed everything.
The outcome for Saturday night’s preliminary headliner therefore seems quite binary: Either Curtis finds his fourth UFC knockout or Gastelum out-points him on the scorecards. The Mexican fighter may not quite be the fighter he once was, but he has always proven to be absurdly durable – having never been finished by strikes in his 25 fight career.
Therefore, I am siding with Gastelum to re-assert himself as a capable fighter at the lower half of the division’s top 15, using his veteran experience to gain the advantage over his hard-hitting opponent. Backing KELVIN GASTELUM TO WIN BY DECISION at 13/8 is the value side in this one.
Posted at 1555 GMT on 06/04/23
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