Will Dean previews this weekend's UFC 284, which is headlined by a potential classic between Alexander Volkanovski and Islam Makhachev.
MMA betting tips: UFC 284
3pts Islam Makhachev to win by TKO/KO or submission at 5/6 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Justin Tafa vs Parker Porter to go to decision at 13/8 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Parker Porter to win by decision at 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Alonzo Menifield to win by TKO/KO in round one at 6/1 (bet365)
UFC matchmakers have been treating their loyal fanbase recently, with a whole host of big-name fights already scheduled for 2023. Last week’s announcement that Conor McGregor will be returning to the Octagon will have certainly have caught all the headlines, but Pay-Per-Views featuring Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman, Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira and Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane should also have fight fans excited for the months ahead.
Despite such huge names waiting in the wings, no fight is big as Saturday night’s headliner at UFC 284, as the pound-for-pound #1 and #2 fighters square off in a rare champion vs champion bout.
Heavy is the crown
Alexander Volkanovski and ISLAM MAKHACHEV are undoubtedly two of the most talented MMA fighters ever to have set foot inside the Octagon.
With both men sporting winning streaks spanning 22 and 11 fights respectively, there aren’t many opponents left that present an adequate challenge for the UFC’s lower weight class champions. Therefore, as soon as Makhachev claimed the belt from Charles Oliveira last October, the organisation thought it right to immediately book a superfight with Volkanovski.
While the idea of pitting dominant champions against one another has always been romanticised in MMA, the reality is that it seldom materialises – and for good reason. With one fighter having to make the sacrifice of stepping up or down 10 or more pounds, they will undoubtedly find themselves at a significant disadvantage. In the case of Volkanovski, whose short and stocky frame is actually below average for Featherweight, competing 10lbs heavier at Lightweight will surely act as a handicap.
Stylistically, the difference is size also plays directly into Makhachev’s hands. The Dagestani’s game is all about physicality, and once he is able to ground Volkanovski this fight should play out as the odds indicate. The Australian can use his speed to stay away from Makhachev’s attempts to force the fight to the floor, but with no proven finishing ability it seems a tall order to expect the Featherweight champion to do so for 25 minutes.
Makhachev has become much more confident in his finishing abilities in recent years, and I expect him to want to demonstrate his dominance in similar fashion to his victory over Oliveira.
The TKO or submission may not present itself immediately to the Russian, but his physicality against a smaller opponent should eventually pay dividends. Backing MAKHACHEV TO WIN BY TKO/KO OR SUBMISSION at a shade of odds-on is therefore the best bet for UFC 284’s iconic main event.
Porter's perseverance
Despite recently releasing former Heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou over contract disputes, the UFC’s 265lbs division has never looked healthier and more full of promise in its top 15 rankings. With Jon Jones and Ciryl Gane set to fight for the belt in March, and the likes of Tom Aspinall, Sergei Pavlovich and Jailton Almeida racking up wins, the division looks set to deliver some exciting bouts in the near future.
Unfortunately, the gap in skill between the weight class's elite and its lower level is significant, with a large portion of the unranked roster having little to offer except early knockout power. The UFC’s infatuation with Heavyweights means that these types of fighters are consistently granted main card spots, but the same names often fail to deliver on a highlight reel finish, instead producing a tepid and lethargic, 15-minute striking display void of any significant action.
UFC 284’s main card features PARKER PORTER and Justin Tafa, who have both been guilty of failing to deliver knockouts in their UFC careers so far. The latter is clearly a heavy hitter, but his size and overall cardio are unable to consistently maintain power over the course of 15 minutes. Porter, on the other hand, favours volume over sheer force, and attempts to minimise risk by dragging his fights out over a longer period.
Parker Porter (@Parker_Porter) is ready to go toe-to-toe with Justin Tafa to entertain the fans of Australia at #UFC284.
— The AllStar Sports (@TheAllStarSport) February 9, 2023
Go make your pick on this fight and win prizes.
📲 https://t.co/FMK2IZyZeU pic.twitter.com/ZZTyak5HiV
With one fighter having a limited window and the other in no rush to score a stoppage, I struggle to see why the oddsmakers are so confident that this fight should not require the judges. Of their combined 10 UFC bouts, Porter and Tafa have managed to secure just two stoppage wins between them – both provided via knockouts from Tafa in under two minutes.
There will therefore be an element of risk involved in the early goings, but should this fight hit round two I expect the overall pace and potential for a finish to drastically diminish.
With that in mind, a bet on the FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE at 13/8 is certainly appealing. For an added wager, Porter has clear shown himself to be the more reliable fighter across a 15-minute bout, so backing PORTER TO WIN BY DECISION is also eye-catching at the odds.
Atomic Alonzo
The main card kicks off with an exciting clash of styles between Jimmy Crute and ALONZO MENIFIELD, two up-and-coming fighters in the Light Heavyweight division hoping to break into the top 10 with a decisive victory.
Crute will be fighting in front of a home crowd for the fourth time in his UFC career, and will be looking to snap a two-fight losing streak suffered at the hands of Anthony Smith and the new champion, Jamahal Hill.
In both fights, Crute seemed more than happy to strike with his opponents, abandoning the wrestling and grappling skillsets that had previously brought him so much success.
ATOMIC ALONZO WITH THE KO!!@AlonzoMenifield wasted NO time 👊 #UFCVegas62 pic.twitter.com/7oDgI6JEiu
— UFC (@ufc) October 15, 2022
It is commonly known in MMA that when a young fighter with a grappling background develops their striking skills, there is the potential for them to fall in love with the ‘sweet science’ and completely reinvent themselves, with most cases ending badly as a result.
Should Crute be walking a similar path, I think he could be in serious trouble against Menifield on Saturday night, as the American is a terrifying physical specimen with the power and accuracy to end the fight in the blink of an eye.
Menifield does however have flaws of his own, most notably in the cardio department. In a similar case to the aforementioned Tafa, Atomic is very front-loaded in his offence and struggles to put together a coherent performance across 15 minutes. He will initially have good takedown defence in the opening round, but the longer the fight goes, the more it favours his opponent.
This fight is therefore a confusing one to break down, as Crute is absolutely the better martial artist of the two, but Menifield seems to have the more realistic, albeit narrow, path to victory.
If the fight goes past the first round then the Australian is likely to perform to the level his betting line suggests, but Menifield is certainly in with a real chance of causing the upset if given time to strike early. A small flutter on MENIFIELD TO WIN IN ROUND ONE is the recommendation.
Posted at 1310 GMT on 09/02/23
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