UFC expert Will Dean previews Saturday's action, including a fascinating grudge match between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira.
UFC 281 betting tips: Saturday November 12
2pts Israel Adesanya v Alex Pereira under 4.5 rounds at 6/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Chris Gutierrez to win by TKO/KO at 11/5 (Unibet)
Thrilling Trilogy
Having won 12 UFC Middleweight fights in less than five years, Israel Adesanya has separated himself from the rest of the pack and cleared out the entire division. With serious star power and a unique personality, the UFC have always been enthusiastic to market The Last Stylebender, which explains the fast-tracking of his former kickboxing foe Alex Pereira to title contender status after just three fights within the organisation.
Poatan holds two victories over the New Zealander outside of MMA and remains the only man to have ever knocked him out. The UFC propaganda machine loves a grudge match, and this is not the first time they have signed a fighter whose record contains a win over another of the company’s stars. During Conor McGregor’s prime, fellow Irishman Joe Duffy was signed and marketed as a serious threat to Mystic Mac, having defeated him on the regional scene when both men were beginning their careers. A loss to none other than Dustin Poirier eventually derailed everyone’s hopes of cashing in on the all-Irish narrative, but the UFC brass are clearly returning for another roll of the dice with UFC 281’s main event.
Credit where it is due, Pereira has looked impressive in each of his three Octagon appearances so far, and Adesanya’s penchant for wearing his heart on his sleeve has certainly made the build-up to this fight more intriguing than many expected. The Middleweight champion seems much more emotionally invested in this bout, denouncing the importance of defending his belt and instead fighting for redemption – implying that fans might see a more exciting fight from the Nigerian than his most recent performance, a widely criticised decision victory over Jared Cannonier.
One would assume that rewatching the duo’s two kickboxing bouts would provide clear insight as to who will get the upper hand on Saturday night, but both contests were incredibly close affairs. Pereira may have emerged with the win on both occasions, but many disagree with the scoring of the first, and Adesanya was winning the rematch until the fateful knockout.
One aspect of this fight that does seem more likely is the increased tempo and higher potential for a finish. Pereira is one of the hardest hitters that Adesanya has faced so far, and the two fighters’ familiarity with one another should increase the chances of a fast-paced fight from the opening bell.
With Pereira likely needing a knockout to secure the win, as well as Adesanya’s prideful desire for redemption, backing the fight to last UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS is the bet to make at even-money.
Frustrating farewell for Frankie
The three fights at the top of the billing for UFC 281 have rightly stolen the majority of the excitement and headlines, but the main card starts off with two intriguing bouts that should not be overlooked. Firstly, Adesanya’s teammate and fellow countryman Dan Hooker looks to break a three-fight losing streak and bounce back from his disappointing performance at UFC London, before Frankie Edgar makes his last ever walk to the Octagon directly after.
Edgar is a legend of the sport and deserves to be inducted into the Hall of Fame as soon as he retires. Despite being consistently undersized for the weight class, The Answer fought his way to the top of the Lightweight division in 2010 and defended the belt three times, including two bouts against Gray Maynard that unfolded like scenes from a 'Rocky' film.
However, time unfortunately waits for no-one, and the now 41-year-old Edgar has looked a shell of his former self in his recent appearances. The Answer was always able to weaponise his superior speed and remain evasive in his younger years, but he now finds himself at his opponent’s mercy whenever fights remain on the feet.
The gameplan for the former Lightweight champion will clearly see him eagerly shooting for takedowns, but his opponent CHRIS GUTIERREZ is notorious for being one of the most lethal and effective leg kickers in the sport today.
El Guapo has been a very popular competitor for UFC fans that frequently watch the preliminaries, having gone undefeated across seven bouts in less than four years. His striking is incredibly unique as his focus is drawn predominantly towards damaging his opponents’ legs, where he has even finished fights in the past.
Leg kicks are hugely disruptive to a traditional wrestler like Edgar, who relies on the explosiveness of his lead leg to shoot for the takedowns he needs. If Gutierrez can land a few good calf kicks in the opening round of this fight, Edgar should be left immobilised and forced to fight on the feet. From there, El Guapo can start to vary his attacks as he looks for a finishing blow to the leg, body or head.
Edgar was famed for his grit, toughness and determination in the prime of his career, but having suffered a knockout in four of his las five losses, the writing seems to be on the wall. Many fans would love to see a dream ending to the career of a legend, but a few well-placed kicks from Gutierrez could turn Saturday night into a nightmare for Edgar.
The fan within me hates to suggest it, but backing GUTIERREZ TO WIN BY TKO/KO at 11/5 is one of the most appealing prop bets on the entire card.
Posted at 1325 GMT on 11/11/22
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