MMA betting tips: UFC 262 preview and tips, Saturday May 15

MMA betting tips: UFC 262, Saturday May 15

1pt Michael Chandler to win in rounds 1-3 at 23/10 (Paddy Power)

1.5pts Tony Ferguson to win at 6/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts Viviane Araujo to win at 6/5 (William Hill)

2.5pts Jacare Souza to win at 10/11 (bet365, BetVictor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

UFC 262 promises to answer some burning questions regarding the future of the Lightweight division, which has always been one of the most competitive in the entire sport. Things have really heated up since Khabib Nurmagomedov relinquished his title last October, with every fighter in the top 15 staking their claim to become king of the division. Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira were ultimately selected to compete for the throne, in what will be a hotly contested fight.

Before the main event, Beneil Dariush and Tony Ferguson will test their mettle against one another for the right to challenge next for the belt. Elsewhere, Viviane Araujo and Katlyn Chookagian square off in an intriguing bout in the Flyweight division, whilst Andre Muniz and Jacare Souza feature in a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu showdown of the highest level.

When is UFC 262?

Saturday, May 15 — although it'll be Sunday in the UK

How can I watch it on TV?

Coverage is live in the UK on BT Sport 1, from 0100 BST on Sunday May 16

Gold for Iron Mike

MICHAEL CHANDLER announced himself to UFC fans in explosive fashion with his first-round knockout of Dan Hooker in January, proving to many that there are other martial artists outside of the UFC who can claim victory against the organisation’s elite.

Many UFC fans will be excited to see Chandler face off against Charles Oliveira, who has had somewhat of a Cinderella story in his career so far. Do Bronx currently holds the record for most submission victories in UFC history, as well as being tied for the most finishes. The Brazilian has been slowly improving from fight to fight and excelled in his last bout against arguably the second best Lightweight of all time, Tony Ferguson.

While Oliveira’s striking has come on leaps and bounds since his UFC debut, his arsenal of submissions continue to be his greatest strength. Unfortunately for him, Chandler has never been submitted in his career, and his high-level wrestling and scrambling explosiveness have made him a hard fighter to control on the mat. The American may struggle to maintain this in the latter half of the fight, but the opening three rounds should see him stay relatively safe in the grappling department.

All attention will therefore turn to the striking exchanges between both fighters in the early goings, which is where I expect Chandler to take control of this fight. The biggest issue that has plagued Oliveira throughout his UFC career is his inability to deal with pressuring power punchers, which is exactly the style the American brings to the cage. Whenever Oliveira finds himself trapped against the fence, he is prone to absorbing big strikes that he reacts badly to. If Chandler can use good footwork to cut off the cage, then he has the potential to end the fight with a single shot, just as he did in his UFC debut against Hooker.

Although Chandler boasts good cardio for someone of his stature and physique, his explosiveness does not translate well in the championship rounds. For that reason, I believe his most likely win condition will revolve around finding the finish in the first few rounds, even more so against a fighter that struggles with menacing forward pressure.

There may be value in betting the American as a slight underdog, but considering 54 of their 65 combined fights have ended inside three rounds, I think backing CHANDLER TO WIN IN ROUNDS 1, 2 OR 3 at 23/10 is a great value bet for the main event.

El Cucuy to haunt again

UFC 262’s Co-Main event is a fascinating bout between two of the most violent and exciting fighters on the UFC’s roster. Beneil Dariush is currently riding a six-fight winning streak and has never looked better, winning by stoppage on four occasions. Conversely, TONY FERGUSON has suffered back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, having previously been undefeated for almost seven years, winning 12 fights in succession.

This is undoubtedly the most important fight of Ferguson's career, as a loss here would remove him from the title picture for good. Despite absorbing a lot of damage in the first loss to Justin Gaethje and then being outgrappled by Charles Olivieira, El Cucuy claims to have made the appropriate adjustments needed to return to his former glory, having worked with legendary boxing coach Freddie Roach in preparation for Saturday night’s showdown with Dariush.

The boxing skills of El Cucuy will be his greatest weapon if he is to win against the Iranian Dariush, as the latter has serious durability issues. MMA fans are often quick to forget, but many thought Dariush’s best days were behind him after suffering knockout losses to Edson Barbosa and Alexander Hernandez in quick succession. He has stayed conscious in his last six wins since then, but was rocked hard by Drew Dober and Drakkar Klose during this run. Ferguson is not the heaviest hitter, but he has nasty elbows and uppercuts that could certainly cause problems if he connects clean, as well as the ability to end fights in one knockout blow.

Ferguson has advantages in more than just the power department though, as his range management, speed and overall striking output should be superior to Dariush. El Cucuy can certainly snap his two-fight losing streak if he keeps this fight standing, something he will have to address against a skilled grappler in Dariush. Ferguson does have good takedown defence, scrambling ability and an aggressive guard, so he can achieve that goal and threaten off his back if he is back to his best.

The former interim champion will also have a significant advantage in terms of cardio, which will be vital in the third round of this fight. As Ferguson pours on the pressure, Dariush may shoot for a desperation takedown, which opens up the opportunity for El Cucuy’s patented D’Arce choke.

Ferguson can win this fight by knockout, submission or decision, as long as he can perform at his previous best. While it is evident that El Cucuy has lost a step or two since his one-sided loss to Gaethje, he still has the tools and stylistic advantages to look like a comfortable favourite in this bout, especially against an opponent with the frailties of Dariush. For me, this fight should be lined much closer, and the current 11/8 price available on FERGUSON WINNING is enticing enough to risk a small wager.

Three in a row for Araujo

As Valentina Shevchenko continues her dominant reign as queen of the Women’s Flyweight division, the UFC are looking for new opponents to challenge the Kyrgyzstani powerhouse. Whilst Katlyn Chookagian has already tried and failed to dethone Shevchenko, VIVIANE ARAUJO looks poised to be next in line.

Araujo has certainly impressed in her UFC stint so far, having won four of her five bouts. As a powerful striker with a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, she utilises evasive head movement, an accurate left hook and debilitating leg kicks to provide a tough test for any fighter in the 125lbs division.

Chookagian has maintained her spot in the top five of the division for some time now, but she has a tough stylistic matchup on her hands on Saturday night, similar to her most recent loss against Jessica Andrade. Despite that lasting less than a full round, we saw the Blonde Fighter face an arsenal of attacks that caused her problems, such as a thunderous leg kick against her lead-leg heavy stance. Araujo is a dedicated leg kicker and will look to slow down the evasive Chookagian by impeding her footwork and lateral movement in the later rounds.

Much like the Andrade fight, Chookagian will have a significant height and reach advantage in this. While this is usually seen as a detriment, it will serve Araujo well to know she has to close the distance and chase down her American opponent, as she works best at boxing range. From this distance, she can rip her hooks to the body and sap the cardio of Chookagian, or find a finish like Andrade did.

This fight will be a classic matchup of power against volume, as Chookagian’s strengths lie in her aggressive jab and overall striking volume. Whilst the Blonde Fighter is favoured to win by decision, I believe the judges will be swayed by the more eye-catching and damaging strikes of Araujo, who is also the more likely fighter to find a finish.

Vivi can win this fight on the scorecards, or by a variety of knockout methods, so I believe the wrong fighter has been priced as the favourite. With that in mind, backing ARAUJO TO WIN at odds of 6/5 seems like a shrewd choice.

Veteran experience

At this stage in his fighting life, JACARE SOUZA has fought almost every notable opponent on the planet available at Middleweight. The Brazilian legend is reaching the tail end of a career that has spanned 35 professional fights, but has still remained competitive against the elite of the division, having never been submitted.

This is a key statistic going into Saturday night’s bout against Andre Muniz, a high level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grappler in his own right. UFC matchmakers would be hard pressed to find an opponent that matches the grappling acumen of Sergipano, but Souza certainly fits the bill.

Unlike many combat sports, BJJ has as much of a focus on the defensive aspects as well as the offensive, meaning that a contest between two elite grapplers will likely end in a stalemate. For that reason, the striking and wrestling credentials of both fighters should be the pivotal attributes in this bout.

Despite being 10 years older than his opponent, I believe Jacare is the superior fighter in both disciplines. As well as having faced a much stronger level of competition in his career, he has developed his wrestling and striking fundamentals to be a danger on the feet and in the clinch, whereas Muniz has relied solely on his grappling abilities so far. If this fight does contain grappling, I believe the wrestling ability of Souza should result in him having more time in the dominant position, helping him win rounds on the judges’ scorecards.

The betting line for this fight seems largely influenced by the result of Souza’s last bout, where he suffered a rare knockout loss while on top of his opponent, Kevin Holland. Considering how little power can truly be generated from the bottom, many believe that Souza’s durability is compromised beyond repair, and that he cannot compete in the UFC with such defensive frailty.

While Souza will certainly have to remain defensively aware, he recently went five whole rounds with the Light Heavyweight champion of the world, Jan Blachowicz, who is widely considered one of the hardest hitters in the sport. It seems unlikely that Souza has suddenly lost all durability in a year, and a matchup against an opponent with just four knockout wins from 24 appearances seems like a favourable bout to dispel these concerns.

If Jacare can survive an unlikely knockout loss to Muniz, then I believe he will let his veteran experience guide him to victory. If Souza had never lost to Holland in such confusing fashion, he would likely be a very significant favourite in this fight. There may be some concerns backing the Brazilian at this stage in his career, but I believe that the current 10/11 price could look wildly inaccurate after this fight to it's SOUZA TO WIN at the odds.

Posted at 1200 BST on 13/05/21

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