Tour de France preview and betting tips: Best bets for cycling classic

Cycling betting tips: Tour de France, July 1-24

1pt e.w. Aleksandr Vlasov to win the Tour de France at 20/1 (Sky Bet, Coral 1/4 1,2,3)

2pts e.w Primoz Roglic to win the Tour de France at 9/2 (bet365, William Hill 1/4 1,2,3)

1pt Fabio Jakobsen to win the green jersey at 6/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Last year’s Tour de France was all a bit meh.

Sure in the UK it will be remembered for Mark Cavendish’s stunning green jersey win, equalling Eddie Mercx’s record for most stage wins, but in terms of the fight for the general classification, it never really got going.

Tadej Pogacar obliterated his injury-plagued competition from the off to ride to the yellow, white and polka dot jerseys seemingly unopposed.

The Slovenian is best-priced at 8/11 with Sky Bet to win his third consecutive Tour de France title. Right now the 23-year-old looks unbeatable, winning the UAE Tour and Tirreno-Adriatico already this year.

But this is Le Tour, where anything is possible and hopes and dreams can be dashed in an instant.

Tour de France route brutal and different

A 21-stage race contains so many twists and turns that, tempting though it may be, there is very little value in backing the favourite while he is odds-on.

That’s not to say I don’t think Pogacar will be the first rider to win three in a row since Chris Froome in 2017. Indeed, I believe the bookies have priced up his favouritism just about right. It is simply that this year’s course is built for pure chaos.

Le grand depart takes place in Copenhagen, Denmark this year with Belgium and Switzerland also featured to make this a four-nation tour for the first time since Froome's hat-trick five years ago.

There are six mountain stages, including five summit finishes (La Super Planche des Belles Filles, Col du Granon, Alpe d’Huez, Peyragudes and the Hautacam), while only 33 miles of time trialling have been installed, possibly an attempt by the route planners to curb one of Pogacar’s biggest strengths.

Stage five seems particularly dicey, seeing a return of cobbles with 11 sectors of the Hell of the North included on a day that will be compulsory viewing for all cycling fans.

Pogacar’s fourth-place finish at this year’s Tour of Flanders – one of the two cobbled classics – suggests he’ll be fine with this brutal day, however. And his 100% winning record of every stage event he has competed in since last year’s tour win proves his scary dominance.

Everyone else might just be playing for podium places. Luckily for us, that’s where the value is.

Back rising star Vlasov

ALEKSANDR VLASOV was already showing great potential at Astana, but since his move to Bora-Hansgrohe at the start of this season, he has excelled.

Racing under a neutral flag, the Russian, who denounced the Ukraine invasion within a week of it happening, stormed to the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana stage race title in February with a blistering ride up the Atenas del Maigmo climb to beat the likes of Remo Evenpoel, Enric Mas and Matej Mohoric.

• CLICK HERE to back Vlasov with Sky Bet

The 26-year-old then repeated the trick, winning the prestigious Tour de Romandie in May and was leading the Tour de Suisse ahead of eventual winner Geraint Thomas when a positive Covid-19 test forced him to pull out of the race before the start of stage six.

Welshman Thomas is 14/1 to win the Tour, but Vlasov rates the better bet at 20/1 with a podium finish well within his capabiliies.

Bora-Hansgrohe are going all in with their GC ambitions and Vlasov looks value to at the very least threaten a top three, and potentially be the one to capitalise should the favourite falter.

Will Roglic finally come good?

PRIMOZ ROGLIC was my tip for last year’s tour but he sadly crashed on stage three after a strong start. His race was over a week later.

I am backing him again after winning a third Vuelta a Espana in the Autumn, and storming to the Criterium du Dauphine title in June.

He may not have as many wins as Pogocar this season, but he has the superior team at his disposal.

• CLICK HERE to back Roglic with Sky Bet

His mountain lieutenants include 2019 third-place finisher Steven Kruijswijk, the ludicrously talented Wout van Aert, Grand Tour stage winner Sepp Kuss, and last year’s runner-up Jonas Vingegaard.

Dane Vingegaard is actually shorter than Roglic with some bookies, but given Roglic was the team leader in the Criterium – the tour’s traditional warm-up race – he is certain to be the main man in July.

Go with Roglic to win each-way at 9/2 with William Hill and bet365. He was unstoppable at Paris-Nice this spring and if he can continue his form, he will canter to a podium spot.

No Cav no problem for Quick-Step

There will be no Mark Cavendish at this year’s tour with Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl Team fully focusing on Dutch sprinter FABIO JAKOBSEN. It means Cavendish, who won four stages and the green jersey in last year’s race, and is currently tied on 34 with the most Tour de France wins, will have to wait until next year to take the outright record from Eddie Mercx.

Jakobsen must be pretty good then if his tour debut comes at the expense of the race’s greatest ever sprinter.

The 25-year-old won five stages and the points jersey at the Vuelta a Espana last year and has already collected 10 wins on the pro tour this season.

Jakobsen to win the green jersey at 6/1 with Betfair and VBet makes appeal. Any half-decent sprinter who can rely on the brutal lead out train of Michael Morkov, Kasper Asgreen and Yves Lampaert should be considered at those odds.

• CLICK HERE to back Jakobsen with Sky Bet

Once upon a time the points classification seemed like a cycle in the park for seven-time winner Peter Sagan. But ever since the Slovenian’s final green jersey in 2019 he has looked off the pace and should not be considered at 5/1.

That leaves only 8/11 favourite Wout van Aert shorter than Jakobsen in the betting. The Belgian all-rounder won an incredible treble of one mountain stage, one time-trial and one insane bunch sprint on the Champs-Elysees at last year’s tour.

But with podium-chasing Roglic part of jack-of-all-trades van Aert’s Jumbo-Visma team, I cannot see the 27-year-old being given the free reign to get in breaks and collect enough green jersey points in the mountains to overcome a pure sprinter like Jakobsen on the flat.

Cycling tactics suggest the points classification could be Jakobsen’s to lose.

Posted at 1050 BST on 30/06/22

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