Saturday's Bets of the Day: Selections for horse racing, football, tennis, greyhounds, boxing and UFC

RACING

Matt Brocklebank

• Eastern Sheriff – 2.25 York

The one that stands out as being potentially over-priced in Saturday’s Sky Bet Melrose Stakes is EASTERN SHERIFF.

Seemingly all dressed up with nowhere to go two and a half furlongs out at Ayr last time, he eventually got some running room and stayed on powerfully for Kevin Stott to nail front-runner Sociologist late on, a performance that resulted in him going up 8lb in the weights.

That might appear harsh given the beaten horses haven’t done a mass amount to frank the form subsequently, but Eastern Sheriff was the best horse in the race by miles.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that he’s progressing into a really smart colt – he’s a full brother to the St Leger winner Harbour Law, while his half-brother Moheet ran in Golden Horn’s Derby.

Palmer is also on record back in the spring suggesting he hopes he can become an “international stayer” for the yard in the future – and that stable tour was reported after Eastern Sheriff had had just the one run as a juvenile, when beating four subsequent winners in a Kempton novice in November.

So he’s always been considered a class act in the making, he’s going to handle the conditions whatever the weather, and he looks absolutely made for a race where he can arrive late off a strong gallop.

Ben Linfoot

• Tell Me All – 2.05 Sandown

Sir Mark Prescott’s TELL ME ALL could be the answer to the tricky-looking Betway Handicap at Sandown on Saturday (2.05).

The son of Lope De Vega has been running over a mile in 0-100 races but he drops in class here to a 0-90 and the step back up to 10 furlongs should see him in a better light.

He’s been getting outpaced over a mile but is unexposed at this trip having tried it just once when he was too free on his seasonal reappearance.

That run is worth forgiving and on his next start he suggested his return to the winners’ enclosure wasn’t too far away when he was second to Overwrite by a length at Windsor.

Only 6lb higher than his last winning mark, he still has more to offer and Sandown could well be the place where he can put it altogether.

His dam, Confidential Lady, won a Listed race here and Prescott has a tremendous record in Sandown handicaps, winning 21 from 61 runners at 34.43% with 71.36% of rivals beaten.

With the yard in great form after four winners last week, Tell Me All could take advantage of the drop in class and is worth chancing at decent odds (14/1 at the time of writing).

FOOTBALL

Tom Carnduff

• Leon Goretzka to score from outside the area

The 22/1 on LEON GORETZKA netting from outside the area is the bold play for the Champions League final but one that looks somewhat overpriced based on what we've seen in recent showings.

Goretzka has found a home in a deeper midfield position, usually alongside Joshua Kimmich but it's Thiago throughout the Champions League campaign with Kimmich asked to fill in at right-back. Despite a more defensive role, the Germany international is seeing efforts on goal.

His last two appearances saw a combined nine total shots. Four of those came from outside the area against Lyon, of which two looked a real threat but his own man got in the way, while there were also two from range in the hammering of Barcelona. It's worth noting that a scrambling Lyon keeper kept him from scoring in their semi-final.

We have seen Goretzka score goals by arriving late into the box and converting from set-pieces and crosses but that is restricted when he is in the current midfield set-up. He's starting to adapt his attacking chances to that, which means more shots coming from distance.

The midfield battle could actually be key in this game and teams, such as Tottenham, have learned the hard way when you allow this Bayern team the space in the middle to attack. Goretzka will see a few shots on goal again in this game, especially if PSG sit a bit deeper, and there's every chance he can add to the eight goals on his tally this season.

TENNIS

Andy Schooler

• Daniil Medvedev to win the Western and Southern Open

DANIIL MEDVEDEV ticks plenty of boxes ahead of the ATP Tour's return in the Western and Southern Open.

While he has been absent from the top exhibition events of the past few months, the Russian is a renowned fast-starter.

He’s regularly produced the goods at the start of a season. In 2017 his big breakthrough at tour level came when he finished runner-up in Chennai. The following January he won the title in Sydney and in 2019 he began his campaign by reaching the Brisbane final.

This season he flew out of the blocks, posting a 4-1 win-loss record at the ATP Cup, his one defeat coming 6-4 in a deciding set against world number one Novak Djokovic.

Medvedev also returns to New York with plenty of happy memories from his last visit.

He made the final of last year’s US Open, only losing in a fifth set to Nadal – the culmination of a superb run on the North American hardcourts which saw him win this very title, albeit in Cincinnati.

Medvedev has been drawn into a decent-looking quarter – Roberto Bautista Agut is the other top-eight seed in the section – although the problem could be Djokovic, who is also in the top half.

That said, as well as pushing the Serb the distance in Australia in January, Medvedev won two of their three meetings in 2019, including on the Cincinnati hardcourts, and the 24-year-old’s awkward game style is more than capable of causing the top seed problems.

Djokovic is admittedly a worthy favourite – he won all 18 matches he played on the tour before lockdown.

But significantly he’s since had COVID-19, a result of his ill-fated Adria Tour. And remember this is a player who has had breathing issues in the past.

I’m clearly not a virologist but I have major concerns about backing any player who has contracted this virus, especially when they are odds-on with most firms.

BOXING

Chris Oliver

• Dillian Whyte to win in rounds 7-12

Both men in Saturday's big fight have gone the distance in four of their last six bouts, and DILLIAN WHYTE picking up another decision at 13/8 is clearly a big player. However, there were clear signs that Father Time was catching up with Povetkin in the desert and he could be ripe for a stoppage (7/5) if the Brixton man brings his 'A' game.

Despite stepping up from cruiserweight and not being noted as a puncher, Hunter hurt Povetkin plenty of times and he looked ready to go at times, so the heavier-handed Whyte certainly looks capable of matching Joshua and halting the former Olympic gold medallist.

He also fought in spurts and seemed to be struggling with the pace at times, suggesting his once solid engine possibly has too many miles on the clock now.

AJ did it in the second half of the fight and that rates the value play here at 3/1, with Whyte breaking down the tough underdog and forcing the referee to intervene between rounds 7 and 12.

GREYHOUNDS

Joe Nordoff

• Waltham Magic (T6) in 8.17 Monmore

Earlier in the year WALTHAM MAGIC (Trap 6, TF 126) appeared to be levelling out as an A2-3 grader at Newcastle, yet Angela Harrison’s charge has proved an all-round improved model post lockdown, quickly climbing the ranks and confirming herself an open-race bitch of some merit in landing the Angel of the North Oaks Final on home soil.

A daughter of star marathon performer of yesteryear Roxholme Magic, it has come as no surprise to see her make an immediate impact over the longer trip, her early pace looking a potent weapon when successful in her Summer Classic heat last Saturday. This is undoubtedly her toughest assignment to date, particularly with kennelmate Droopys Catch (Trap 3 TF122) and Regency winner Zascandil (Trap 5, TF129) in opposition, yet Waltham Magic’s improvement may not have finished yet and with obvious claims of going clear once more and the potential for scrimmaging on the inner, she’s fancied to be soon making the best of her way home from the striped jacket.

UFC

Will Gordon

• Carlton Minus to win

This should be a competitive fight between two hungry debutants but while CARLTON MINUS and Matthew Semelsberger are both relatively inexperienced, the former has fought the much tougher competition, and appears to have more of a process to his fighting style.

Minus’ approach to striking is best described as sensible and disciplined. Primarily favouring straight combinations as the basis of his output, he manages distance superbly. Across his last three wins on the regional scene (all of which came by decision) he was able to consistently pick apart his opponents and pepper them with a relentless barrage of jabs and straights, all while barely being hit himself.

Semelsberger’s approach to MMA could not be more contrasting. He likes to charge forward, get in his opponent’s face, and make fights ugly. This has served him fairly well in his career so far, but he struggles in fights where he cannot force his opponents into brawls.

I trust the composure of Minus to continuously circle around the cage and keep Semelsberger at range. Clutch has been known to focus on leg kicks, which will be a useful weapon to immobilise Semelsberger if he invests in it early.

Kieran Cobley

• Pedro Munhoz to win in rounds 1-5 at 4/5

PEDRO MUNHOZ is the overwhelming favourite coming into Saturday’s main event against Frankie Edgar, but the value lies in backing the favourite to win inside the distamce.

The Young Punisher has 13 finishes in his 18 wins, showing that he is a very dangerous opponent for any fighter within the bantamweight division. He has heavy hands, as demonstrated with knockout wins over the likes of Cody Garbrandt, while he can also string together deadly combinations such as against Bryan Caraway.

Where Munhoz really stands out though is on the mat. He holds eight wins via submission, and his Guillotine Choke is the most feared submission in the bantamweight division.

This is what makes Edgar the underdog. Not only is he taking on such a dangerous opponent, but he is taking him on in his first outing at bantamweight. Edgar’s best chance of winning is to use his wrestling to hold Munhoz against the cage for as long as possible, but this still puts him in danger of being finished.

When closing the distance to get his hands on Munhoz there is every chance he will get caught by his opponent's striking. If Munhoz can shrug off any attempt by Edgar to hold him against the cage as well, it could end up in a grappling exchange on the mat, which is where the selection is at his most dangerous.

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