Get selections for the racing at Newbury, plus Man City's Champions League clash with Lyon, UFC, and greyhounds, in Saturday's Bets of the Day.
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RACING
ORBAAN has been a little in-and-out in his three starts for David O'Meara, though the quick ground was presumably a fair excuse at Newmarket, while last time wasn’t too much of a backward step having won at 25/1 at York on July 9.
He was put up 4lb for that victory over subsequent Glorious Goodwood winner Muraad and wasn’t alone in just struggling to cope with well-treated three-year-old Hartswood late on.
Orbaan moved like the classiest horse in that race and I’d be amazed if he wasn’t able to genuinely compete at Group level before the year’s out - he just took a little while to engage top gear for some reason.
A return to softer ground will play to his strengths here and he looks well worth another chance off an unchanged mark of 104 before having his sights raised again.
HMS PRESIDENT should appreciate what amounts to a drop in class in the Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap.
Tom Queally's mount ran a solid fourth behind Highland Chief and Tritonic in that hot handicap at Royal Ascot before taking third behind Zabeel Champion at Newmarket's July Festival.
Both of those races were at Class 2 level and, while HMS President now takes on older horses, this race is a Class 4 and the opposition looks weaker.
FOOTBALL
It's worth investigating the possibility of RAHEEM STERLING again peppering the target at around the 9/2 mark when Manchester City take on Lyon.
It's clear that the Champions League is the competition that Sterling enjoys the most in an attacking sense. His average shots on target figure per 90 minutes stands at 1.3 in the Premier League yet it shoots up to 2.3 in Europe's elite club competition.
He is also more clinic with his opportunities in this competition. That 1.3 figure came from a total shots per 90 of 3.4. In the Champions League, his total shots average is 3.7 and the on target number is much better.
It's why he's netted six goals in eight appearances. It's worth noting that this Lyon side concede the joint-most shots per game (13.1 with Barcelona) of any side remaining in the competition this season.
Against a side in the top-five for shots per game in the Champions League (16), we should expect plenty of opportunities for Sterling to strike and boost his shots on target figure again.
GREYHOUNDS
One hound who undoubtedly deserved his effort marking up in the All England Cup final at Newcastle last month was KNOCKBOY JET (Trap 1, TF 122). Not only inconvenienced on the run to the bend that day, he encountered serious trouble at the first bend, thus leaving him with an uphill task. However, he kept on in vein pursuit to take a very meritorious third.
Similarly, in his Gold Cup Trial Stake seven days ago he never got the rub of the green, handy around bends one and two his chance of victory was effectively gone when he encountered crowding. His expected Timeform sectional suggests he’ll be in the vanguard early doors from a good make on the rails and a big run looks likely at 7.18, with another who wasn’t seen to very best effect last week, Billies Tea (Trap 4, TF 120) next best.
UFC
With a 13-2 record, Livia Souza is ready to break into the Strawweight top 15. The Brazilian Gangsta comes forward with a real aggression, throwing powerful shots as she looks to get the fight to the ground and secure a submission.
Ashley Yoder likes to get in close and lands most of her shots in the clinch. Against a prolific Judo practitioner like Souza, who has demonstrated an impressive variety of trips and hip throws across her career, this could be a recipe for disaster.
In truth, it is quite difficult to see exactly where Yoder wins this fight over the course of 15 minutes. Souza may end up on her back on a few occasions, but we can see her clearly winning this fight by KO, submission or decision.
Merab Dvalishvili against John Dodson is one of the most intriguing bouts on this main card.
Dvalishvili set the record for most takedowns in a single fight in his last outing, landing 13 in three rounds. This shows just how brilliant his game plan is. If he can take the fight to the floor it puts the bout in his court. You also have to look at the fact that this fight is in a smaller cage due to being at the Apex centre. This gives Dodson less room to move, and shortens the distance between him and Dvalishvili, making it easier to shoot for takedowns.
Dvalishvili should have no issues in this fight as long as he can utilise his wrestling and doesn’t allow himself to be drawn into a striking battle by Dodson.
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