NBA Conference finals assessed: Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks

After a hugely exhilarating Sunday of game sevens, the conference finals are now set.

Thanks to a huge upset in game seven, the Dallas Mavericks were able to blow out the number one seeded Phoenix Suns in the west, while in the east, the Boston Celtics did the same to knock out the reigning NBA champions, the Milwaukee Bucks.

That means the western conference final sees the Golden State Warriors (3 seed) take on the Dallas Mavericks (5) and the eastern conference final pitting the Miami Heat (1) against the Boston Celtics (2).

The winner of both match-ups, which are a best of seven series with the higher seeded team getting a game seven decider (if required) at home, will face off in the NBA finals.

Western Conference - Golden State (3) v Dallas (5)

The Western Conference finals has brought us a very unlikely match-up.

Not many expected this Dallas Mavericks team to beat the number one seed Phoenix Suns, particularly in the emphatic manner they did in a road game seven – by a cool 33 points.

With the play-off machine Luka Doncic showing up yet again on the big stage – he scored 35 points, contributed 10 rebounds and four assists in that game seven – he again highlighted why he should be in the MVP conversation every season.

The Slovenian will be looking to get the better of two-time league MVP and three-point sharp-shooter Steph Curry in these finals.

Doncic will be the main focus for the Warriors, who need to find a way to slow him down as much as possible. If they can do that, it puts a lot of pressure on his teammates to fire the Mavs to a win, but during the regular season, that tactic didn't work, as the Warriors threw everybody they could at Luka in four meetings but Dallas took three of the games. Doncic racked up 26, 25, 34 and 41 points along the way.

He is a problem, and seems un-guardable at times, so the Warriors may have to get creative on defence, or just focus on clamping down the role players rather than focusing all of their efforts on the young star.

Golden State will also have to find their shooting form if they are to advance to the NBA finals.

During the regular season 'the Dubs' shot 36.4% from beyond the arc as a team, and were on fire in the first round play-off series win over the Denver Nuggets, shooting 42.2%. That dropped to 34.2% in their series against the Memphis Grizzlies.

They are a team that live and die by the three-point shot, taking nearly 40 per game. If they have a hot game, no team can match them, but if they are cold from three-point range, things become a struggle.

Luka and Steph are the main attractions in this match-up, but again, the supporting cast will be immensely important for both teams, especially Dallas.

The Warriors have Curry's 'splash-brother' Klay Thompson back fit and firing, along with Draymond Green, meaning they have plenty of experienced players who have been all the way and won championships. Dallas don't.

But, along with the three Warriors already mentioned, Jordan Poole could be the ace in the pack. Coming off the bench this season, Poole has averaged 19.3 points in 31 minutes, and he offers Golden State something a bit different – as well as shooting the three-ball well, Poole can get to the basket with ease.

The Mavericks will be looking at any one of a handful of players to step up and give superstar Doncic the help he is desperately going to need. Despite Spencer Dinwiddie’s all-star performance in game seven against the Suns (30 points), it’s Doncic backcourt teammate Jalen Brunson who will be the Robin to Luka's Batman.

His numbers don’t lie in these play-offs. Brunson has averaged 22.9 points per game on shot 46.7% from the field. His most remarkable stat is his +/- which is currently at an eye-watering +50 in these play-offs. He could well be the difference maker for this Mavericks team.

Golden State Warriors v Dallas Mavericks Series betting (via Sky Bet)

• 3/1 - Golden State 4-1
• 10/3 - Golden State 4-3
• 11/2 - Golden State 4-2
• 11/2 - Dallas Mavericks 4-2
• 7/1 - Golden State 4-0
• 7/1 - Dallas Mavericks 4-3
• 11/1 - Dallas Mavericks 4-1
• 20/1 - Dallas Mavericks 4-0

Odds correct at 1100 (17/05/22)

Golden State are heavily fancied to win the Western Conference finals, priced around 2/5 (71.4%) with the Mavericks at 2/1 (33.3%) for the upset.

It is not surprising that Steve Kerr's side are strong favourites – after all, they are the bookies' favourite to win the NBA Championship this season, with a deep and talented roster alongside the championship-winning experience meaning they have a great blend in their ranks.

I think this one will be a short series and the Warriors to win in five games seems likely, even if the Mavs did win the regular season series 3-1.

When it comes to this stage of the season, experience and knowhow counts for a lot, and the Warriors have that in abundance, along with incredible shooting talent.

The Dallas Mavericks are going to have to play out of their skin to prolong this series, which could be tough given they have come through a gruelling seven-game series against Phoenix whereas the Warriors have had a few extra days' rest and preparation time.

It will be very difficult for Dallas to take games on the road, with the Warriors boasting the second best regular season record in front of their own fans (31 wins 10 losses), while the Mavs were only just above .500 on the road (23 wins 18 losses).

Expect high-scoring games between these two due to the offensive talent on show, but the higher the scoring the more you have to favour the Warriors to win the series.

Score prediction - Golden State Warriors 4-1 Dallas Mavericks

Eastern Conference - Miami (1) v Boston (2)

In the East, we have a thrilling final on our hands, as not only do we get to see the two best teams in the conference going head-to-head (according to seedings), but we get to witness a match-up of two of the best defensive units in the NBA.

Boston ranked as the best defensive team in the regular season in terms of points per game allowed (104.5), with the Heat fourth best (105.6), while in the post-season Miami has taken their defensive game to another level and leads the way with 97.5 – Boston sit third with 101.8 which is impressive having faced Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets as well as Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks.

We don’t just have a matchup between two very strong defensive units, but as is always the case with such a star-studded league like the NBA, we have two team-leading superstars in Jimmy Butler (Miami) and Jayson Tatum (Celtic) going head-to-head.

Both Butler and Tatum are renowned for their two-way ability, being able to play to an excellent standard in both offence and defence.

Jimmy 'Buckets', as he is known, has been the leader of the Heat for a couple of seasons now, with his aggressive style at both ends of the court making him a nightmare to deal with, as shown by his per-game stats in the play-offs so far (28.7 points, 5.4 assists, 7.6 rebounds).

Tatum just continues to get better and better, with the 24-year-old playing beyond his years especially in these play-offs. He came up huge for the Celtics in game six of their series with the Bucks, scoring 46 of their 108 points to help them take the series to a decider.

Those are the two leading lights of the Eastern Conference finalists, but given the incredible levels the pair produce so regularly, we know what we are going to get from them, and they could well cancel each other out, meaning the series could be won and lost by which role players can provide elite performances when it matters most.

The Heat will be looking towards their young star, and Sixth Man of the Year (an award for the best performing player coming off the bench), Tyler Herro for a spark.

Herro has struggled in these playoffs so far, contributing just 13.8 points in his 27.6 minutes per game, shooting an abnormally low 27.3% from three-point range. During the regular season he was averaging 20.7 points per game and posting an impressive three-point shooting percentage of 39.9% so his levels have dipped at the wrong time.

Is the play-off spotlight too bright for the young American? In this post-season he has a shockingly poor plus-minus of -23. Plus-minus (or +/-) simply keeps track of the net changes in the score when a given player is either on or off the court. Anything negative is a problem.

So a -23 means that when Herro is on the court, the Heat are down 23 points in these playoffs. It doesn't appear to be a one-off either, as last season, admittedly in just one play-off series that ended in a whitewash 4-0 loss, Herro's +/- was -36.

If Herro can’t figure it out and turn things around, then I worry for the Miami Heat.

As for the Celtics, their X factor is Marcus Smart, the Defensive Player of the Year this season, and for good reason. He was a key contributor the Celtics finishing second in the East and posting league-leading defensive ratings, as well as helping them allow the fewest points per game (104.5).

Smart has taken this form into the post-season, having the opposite effect to Miami's Herro in terms impact. He has averaged 15 points in 36.6 minutes with a three-point percentage of 35.4, but his overall influence is underlined through his +/-, which stands at +26. He is proving to be pivotal to the Celtics success.

Miami Heat v Boston Celtics Series betting (via Sky Bet)

• 10/3 - Boston Celtics 4-2
• 4/1 - Miami Heat 4-3
• 5/1 - Boston Celtics 4-1
• 5/1 - Boston Celtics 4-3
• 13/2 - Miami Heat 4-1
• 8/1 - Boston Celtics 4-0
• 8/1 - Miami Heat 4-2
• 14/1 - Miami Heat 4-0

Odds correct at 1100 (17/05/22)

The Heat, regardless of having home court advantage, are priced up as 6/4 (40.0%) underdogs by the bookmakers to win the Easter Conference Final, with the Celtics the 1/2 (66.7%) favourites.

I think this series will be closer than those odds suggest, with very little between these two great defensive teams. The pair split their regular season meetings 2-2, with the four games averaging 203 points, which means it wouldn't be surprising to see low-scoring games throughout this series.

Picking one team to win the East and advance, I'll take the Boston Celtics. There is little value in backing them to do so, but the extra offensive firepower the C's have over the Heat should see them over the line.

Add to that the fact they appear to have no issues playing on the road in this post-season – they have won four of their five games away from Boston in the play-offs – and the Celtics get the vote.

In terms of series betting, the Celtics to win in six (4-2) appeals at 10/3 and is rightly the favourite. For this to happen they would need to split the opening two games in Miami and win their three home games – losing game five in Miami – which seems a real possibility.

Score prediction - Miami Heat 2-4 Boston Celtics

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.