It was a profitable September for Will Dean and our MMA expert returns to begin October with two selections for UFC Vegas 61.
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 61
2pts Mackenzie Dern to win by submission in rounds 1, 2 or 3 at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
2pts Mike Davis & Maxim Grishin both to win at 1.46/1 (bet365, Betfred)
Dern's turn?
MACKENZIE DERN’s evolution as a fighter has been fascinating to watch over the last few years, as she entered the UFC as one of the most decorated and feared Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grapplers on the planet. With such confidence in her ability to threaten a finish on the mat, the 29-year-old has been able to dedicate most of her time in the gym to improving her striking ability, which has come on leaps and bounds since her debut in 2018.
With a much more well-rounded skillset at her disposal, Dern looks to be well on her way to competing for the title in the near future. Standing in her way on Saturday night will be Xiaonan Yan, a technical and ferocious striker that won her first six UFC bouts with absolute ease. Nine has since suffered back-to-back losses against now-champion Carla Esparza and future challenger Marina Rodriguez, but there is no denying the Chinese fighter firmly belongs in the division’s top 10.
Dern presents a challenging stylistic puzzle for all of her opponents, but the grappling ace is fortunate to be able to approach every fight with a similar gameplan as a result. It doesn’t really matter who her opponent is, the prerogative must always be to ground them and spend as little time striking as possible. Dern has had a great amount of success at executing such a gameplan across her nine UFC bouts – the difference has been in whether or not her opponents have been able to survive the round.
Xiaonan’s 2021 loss to Carla Esparza provides all the evidence needed to be confident in Dern’s ability to find a stoppage on Saturday night, as the Chinese fighter’s defensive grappling left a lot to be desired. Esparza is certainly one of the division’s best ever wrestlers, but she had never demonstrated much of an ability to inflict damage or seamlessly move to dominant positions before – until Xiaonan’s inferior defence led to her first TKO victory in nine years.
It seems as though Dern can win this fight very quickly after it hits the mat, but her ability to do so will certainly dwindle as the fight goes on. With that in mind, a bet on DERN TO WIN BY SUBMISSION IN ROUNDS 1, 2 OR 3 appeals at 11/10.
Two for the price of one
With very few prop bets available at alluring price tags, there is still a lot of confidence to be had in both MIKE DAVIS and MAXIM GRISHIN this weekend. Both men are the much more well-rounded and reliable fighters compared to their opponents and, should they perform at their best, their betting lines could look severely discounted in hindsight.
On the main card, Mike Davis makes his return after an 18-month absence. Dedicated UFC fans had earmarked Beast Boy as a future top 15 fighter when he initially signed to the UFC and, after a spirited effort on short notice against Gilbert Burns, he quickly began to demonstrate why many were so excited by his potential.
Viacheslav Borshchev’s introduction to MMA fans was much more explosive, as the 6-2 fighter burst onto the scene with quick knockout finishes on both the Contender Series and in his UFC debut - followed by an iconic post-victory celebration dance. Slava Claus was beginning to look like a marketing dream for the UFC, until he was soundly beaten by Doncaster’s Marc Diakiese earlier this year. The Englishman used a dedicated wrestling gameplan to nullify the explosive Russian knockout artist, who seemed to have no answer on the mat.
Davis is a competent enough striker to best Borshchev on the feet, but he can also be relied on to mix in takedowns when necessary. If Beast Boy can take the path of least resistance set out by Diakiese, he should be able to claim a victory with relative ease, making MIKE DAVIS TO WIN a perfect first leg of a double.
POV: You're about to face @MikeDavisMMA at #UFCVegas61 👊 pic.twitter.com/IZ4HKgQp1n
— UFC (@ufc) September 28, 2022
In the preliminaries, Grishin looks to win his third UFC bout after a frustrating and challenging few years. He may currently hold a 2-2 record within the company, but a 30lb weight disadvantage in his debut and a controversial decision loss soon after mean that both losses come with somewhat of an asterisk. However, in both of Grishin’s victories, he has looked dominant and dangerous from the opening bell and has shown real glimpses of being a challenging fighter to beat.
Philipe Lins, Grishin’s opponent on Saturday night, has had less success in his three UFC appearances. Many fans were excited to see the Brazilian sign for the UFC in 2020 after his previous successes in the PFL, but lacklustre performances in losses to Andrei Arlovksi and Tanner Boser have quickly quelled any real intrigue into the now 37-year-old’s potential.
Simply put, Grishin is the better fighter in almost every facet of MMA. The Russian has proven himself to be a much more intelligent, faster, powerful and technical striker than Lins, and his defensive grappling should be more than enough to prevent the Brazilian from any significant time spent on top. Whether he finds a knockout or cruises to a decision on the scorecards, adding MAXIM GRISHIN TO WIN should be a relatively stress-free second leg to round out a double at just shy of 6/4.
Posted at 1610 BST on 29/09/22
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