MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 58 preview and best bets

MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 58

2pts Rafael dos Anjos to win at 19/10 (William Hill)

2pts Tresean Gore to win by TKO/KO at 3/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Rafael Rivals

With five consecutive UFC victories to his name, electric Muay Thai striker Rafael Fiziev is set for his first main event fight. The 29-year-old Kyrgyzstani’s ascent up the rankings has impressed many a hardcore MMA fan, with his unique, Matrix-like evasiveness frequently trending on social media.

Whilst some believe he is destined for a future at the top of the Lightweight division, Fiziev must first get past a stiff test in RAFAEL DOS ANJOS, a former champion of the division. At 37-years-old, Dos Anjos has been matched up against almost every notable name possible in the last decade, yet appears to show no signs of slowing down.

Narratives play a huge part in the fans’ enjoyment of combat sports, but it is often easy to get carried away with them. On paper, this looks like the perfect opportunity for a well-known but declining former champion to pass the torch to a marketable prospect, but the reality should make for a very close fight.

Dos Anjos may have lost five of his last seven bouts, but all of these losses came against formidable grapplers at 170lbs, a division that the 5’8” Brazilian frankly had no business fighting in. Both wins on the other hand, came against Lightweight fighters, where RDA put on flawless performances across five rounds.

With a key advantage in experience, dos Anjos is more likely to be the fresher fighter in the third, fourth and fifth rounds of Saturday’s main event. In all three of Fiziev’s 15-minute fights, he has seemingly slowed down in the third round, ultimately losing the round in the eyes of at least one judge. Given that dos Anjos has become much more reliant on his grappling ability in recent wins, Fiziev’s cardio is certainly going to be questioned if this fight goes into the latter stages.

Fiziev is undeniably the more dangerous finisher on the feet, but RDA has only been knocked out twice in 44 professional bouts. As long as the Brazilian can stay defensively aware, then I believe he can utilise his key advantages in experience, endurance and grappling to pull off the upset here.

At 19/10, RAFAEL DOS ANJOS TO WIN is an underdog bet I am very intrigued by.

• CLICK HERE to back DOS ANJOS with Sky Bet

Gore for Glory

TRESEAN GORE’s impressive stint on the 28th season of The Ultimate Fighter may have ended with a frustrating injury, but viewers were unanimous in earmarking Mr Vicious as a competitor with UFC level potential. His raw power and physicality make him a challenging opponent for any up and coming fighter, especially a dedicated wrestler like Saturday night’s opponent, Cody Brundage.

On the subject of potential, Brundage has failed to impress in his three appearances under the UFC banner so far. After suffering a knockout loss on the Contender Series in 2020, he returned a year later as a short notice replacement for his UFC debut, losing unanimously.

The UFC granted him another opportunity to repay the favour, where he faced Dalcha Lungiambula in a memorable one-round brawl. From the opening bell, Lungiambula’s size and strength was clearly too much for Brundage. After halting all of the wrestler’s takedown attempts, Lungiambula had his opponent hurt with a barrage of strikes and looked to be declared the winner at any second. However, in a split-second lapse of judgement, he inexplicably shot for a takedown on Brundage, found himself in an opportunistic Guillotine choke, and promptly tapped out.

A moment of sheer brilliance will have undoubtedly earned Brundage some new fans, but it does not diminish the fact that his overall performance was concerning. Against Gore, Brundage faces a very similar stylistic challenge, but Mr Vicious may actually hit harder.

Unless Brundage has made some serious improvements, I think it is likely he gets stung yet again by a powerful strike here. I’m putting faith in Mr Vicious having good enough decision making to learn from Lungiambula’s mistakes, so backing Gore to win by TKO/KO is an appealing play at 3/1.

• CLICK HERE to back GORE to win by TKO/KO with Sky Bet

Posted at 1625 BST on 08/07/22

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