Gabe Green can justify favouritism on Saturday according to MMA expert Will Dean, who previews UFC Vegas 53.
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 53
1pt Jake Collier to win by decision at 3/1 (Unibet, BetVictor)
2pts Gerald Meerschaert to win (Decision No Bet) at evens (Paddy Power, Betfair)
3pts Gabe Green to win at 8/11 (General)
Points for The Prototype
Andrei Arlovski’s MMA journey has been nothing short of incredible. After making his debut in 1999, the Belarusian was the UFC’s Heavyweight champion just six years later. The Pitbull travelled the world and fought for a variety of promotions in his illustrious career, until eventually returning to the UFC for a second stint. Many believed his career was over in 2017, after suffering three brutal knockout losses in a string of five consecutive defeats. Arlovski responded to the naysayers by going the distance in 13 of his next 15 bouts, emerging victorious from eight of them.
The UFC have aided Arlovski’s resurgence in recent years, firmly cementing him as a gatekeeper and scheduling him in winnable fights against the lowest level the organisation can offer. The Belarusian presents a challenging puzzle to these inexperienced Heavyweights, but almost every fight he has been in in recent years has been competitive. The scorecards paint the same picture, as Arlovski has won 29-28 in each of his last four victories.
With all that said, JAKE COLLIER certainly has the style required to best The Pitbull over the course of 15 minutes. The Protype has demonstrated impressive striking volume since moving to the Heavyweight division, landing over 100 punches on two separate occasions. Collier also showed a decent wrestling ability in his most recent win which, despite Arlovski’s superb grappling defence, could help him to control where the fight takes place.
Arlovski’s modern style is almost hypnotic to his opponents, but Collier has what it takes to win a decision if he dictates the pace and fights as he normally does. It’s hard to know exactly who wins this fight, but they are likely to do so via a judges’ decision. With that in mind, COLLIER TO WIN BY DECISION at 3/1 is a very tempting price tag for what should be a competitive encounter.
Stoppage or Safety
With a combined total of 76 professional bouts to their names, it is hard to believe that GERALD MEERSCHAERT and Krzysztof Jotko will be competing against one another for the first time on Saturday night.
Meercshaert has always been known as one of the most opportunistic fighters on the UFC’s roster, currently boasting the joint-second most finishes in UFC Middleweight history. This is mostly due to his prolific submission offence, which can see GM3 voluntarily accept the inferior grappling position as a means to an end. As a consequence, the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt is often on the losing end of a scorecard if he cannot find a finish in 15 minutes.
Conversely, Jotko is a master of point scoring and round winning, having won 16 of his 18 bouts that have gone the distance. In fact, the Polish fighter’s style is so decision-heavy that his last stoppage victory came in 2016, 10 fights ago.
This fight is therefore the perfect opportunity to back MEERSCHAERT at evens in the 'Decision No Bet' market, which will see your stake returned if the fight goes the distance. GM3 has won via a stoppage in 94% of his victories and can always find a finish, while Jotko is reliable to void the bet with a victory via the scorecards.
Go with Gifted Gabe
Yohan Lainesse shocked the MMA fanbase last year with a first-round knockout over a highly touted prospect on Dana White’s Contender Series. That victory earned the Canadian a UFC contract, but questions remain over whether or not he is truly ready for a step up in competition.
Similar questions were pitched to GABE GREEN when he entered the organisation as a late notice replacement in 2020, but impressive outings against Daniel Rodriguez and Phil Rowe have proven that Gifted Gabe belongs amongst the UFC’s roster. He demonstrated technical striking, debilitating leg kicks and reliable cardio in both of those bouts, which will all be key factors in helping him secure a victory over Lainesse.
The Canadian is an erratic and wild striker who looks for the knockout strike as early as possible. White Lion has had great success in achieving this, but his performances in rounds two and three have looked less convincing. Against Green, he faces a well-rounded competitor that will throw a variety of offence for 15 hard minutes, including a thunderous leg kick that will impede Lainesse’s movement as the fight goes on.
If White Lion cannot find the finish in the opening round, then the tide should turn in his opponent’s favour for the remainder of the fight. Backing GREEN TO WIN at 8/11 is therefore an easy choice to make, as his short-notice debut against a dangerous striker like Rodriguez gives me every confidence that he can survive Lainesse’s early onslaught, and his superior shot selection could see him win all three rounds anyway.
Posted at 2210 GMT on 22/04/22
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