MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 41 preview and best bets
Will Dean has two selections for UFC Vegas 41, where Marvin Vettori can have his opponent in a spin.
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 41
2pts Marvin Vettori to win in rounds 4, 5 or by decision at 7/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Jai Herbert to win by KO or submission at 11/10 (William Hill, bet365)
How to watch UFC Vegas 40
- The action is live on BT Sport from 1900-0030 BST on Saturday October 23
Bronze Medal for Vettori
Both fighters in Saturday night’s main event are returning from losses to champion Israel Adesanya, so a victory for either man comes with a chance to solidify their place as third best at 185lbs.
Paulo Costa came into his title fight as a feared knockout artist with power and athleticism, but Adesanya proved his striking to be far superior; using footwork and feints to confuse the Brazilian and render him gun-shy. MARVIN VETTORI’s efforts were arguably more spirited, as he landed numerous takedowns but ultimately lost every round on the judges’ scorecards.
With both men clearly disheartened by how soundly they were beaten, it will be interesting to see which fighter has been able to dust themselves off and find the necessary motivation to continue training at such a high level. Vettori has spoken in the media about how he feels he is still a better fighter than Adesanya, while Costa has blamed his lacklustre performance on a few glasses of wine consumed the night before.
Regardless of the validity or seriousness of Costa’s excuses, Vettori appears to have more hunger and desire than The Eraser, who will also be making his first appearance since being knocked out. On some occasions, this can have a lasting effect on the psychology of a fighter, who may lose their confidence and fear a similar outcome if they do not approach things differently. Costa has also been speaking candidly about how badly his weight cut is going, which brings into question how seriously he has been training in recent weeks.
If both fighters appear at their best for this contest, then it should be an interesting stylistic battle. The deciding factor however should come from Vettori’s durability. The Italian Dream has never been finished, and has never been concerned or rocked by any strike he has absorbed in the UFC so far. Vettori has also fought comfortably for 40 minutes against Adesanya, which should give him the confidence he needs to survive against Costa.
Make no mistake, the Brazilian is one of the division’s most dangerous fighters in the opening two rounds, but his condition in the third round against Yoel Romero was a telling sign that Costa is somewhat of a front-runner. He still fought competently, but his punches seemed laboured and lacked the sheer force that they wield in the early goings. Vettori is not much of a finisher himself, and has made a career out of hustling harder than his opponents.
Vettori will have to face a challenging two rounds in the cage, but the tide should certainly turn in his favour by the third stanza. The Italian will then be able to mix in takedowns and assert his dominance, leading to a victory on the judges’ scorecards or even a late finish against a fatigued Costa. Backing VETTORI TO WIN IN ROUNDS 4, 5 OR BY DECISION covers a high portion of his win condition, so doing so at 7/5 seems the smartest way to bet on the favourite this weekend.
Herbert to destroy the Death Star
Despite losing both of his UFC bouts, JAI HERBERT seems to have impressed fans and matchmakers alike with his performances inside the cage. The Black Country Banger was unlucky to lose his debut to Francisco Trinaldo, dominating the striking until a well-timed shot knocked him unconscious (resulting in a spat between ex-commentator Dan Hardy and referee Herb Dean that went viral). In his sophomore appearance, he was clearly the better striker and forced Renato Moicano to grapple relentlessly in order to get the win.
Thankfully for Herbert, Saturday night’s opponent should have no interest in shooting for takedowns. Khama Worthy is a striker with a similar frame, but has struggled with his durability throughout his career, losing by stoppage in each of his eight defeats. The Death Star pulled off upsets in his first two UFC appearances, but recent back-to-back knockout losses in under two minutes have recalibrated opinions on his overall potential.
Both men are capable of scoring a finish in this fight, but the lack of defensive awareness from Worthy is enough to warrant his underdog status yet again. The 5’11 striker throws leg kicks at too close a range, often keeping his hands low and leaving himself vulnerable to counters. Herbert can certainly capitalise on this, and has shown himself to be an efficient counter-striker with a lightning-fast right hand. If Herbert can catch his foe in a lapse moment, the end could be in sight.
Herbert still has so much promise against lower level competition in the Lightweight division, and his debut performance against Trinaldo would likely have been a flawless knockout win, were it not for the Brazilian’s insane durability (suffering just one knockout in 34 professional appearances).
Against Worthy, the Englishman will have the opportunity to show off his striking yet again, taking on a much more fragile opponent. Backing HERBERT TO WIN BY KO OR SUBMISSION at 11/10 is certainly appealing, with The Black Country Banger announcing himself to UFC fans around the world as another UK prospect to keep an eye on.
Posted at 1735 BST on 21/10/21
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