Will Dean delivers his take on Saturday's UFC Orlando, where Jack Hermansson has landed an ideal stylistic match-up.
UFC Orlando tips: Saturday December 3
2pts Jack Hermansson to win by decision at 11/8 (General)
2pts Amanda Ribas to win by Submission or Decision at 11/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
As the Romans do
JACK HERMANSSON’s dominant performance in July at UFC London was a real statement regarding his position in the Middleweight division.
Hermansson has had a successful six years with the organisation but seems to have grown a reputation for being a gatekeeper at 185lbs – easily dispatching those on the rise but struggling to compete against the division’s elite. His clear win over Chris Curtis reinforced his superiority over those outside the top 15, and Hermansson was subsequently booked against the fifth-ranked Middleweight in the UFC, Derek Brunson.
Unfortunately for the Swede, Brunson was forced to withdraw from the bout after suffering an injury just last week, prompting Hermansson to accept a replacement fight against Georgia’s Roman Dolidze. Some have questioned why The Joker was so keen to risk his spot in the rankings against yet another up-and-comer, but having already been through a full fight camp in preparation for Brunson, as well holding a variety of stylistic advantages against his new foe, this could be light work for him.
Dolidze is a true finisher, with a highly credentialed Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background and fight-ending power in both hands, but he has come unstuck when forced to fight for 15 minutes. The Caucasian is overzealous in his pursuit of the finish that he finds himself fatigued in the third round, usually without a solid game plan to outpoint his opponent.
Dolidze’s success on Saturday night will largely depend on his ability to finish The Joker – something that only four of his 30 career opponents have been able to do. Hermansson is impressively durable against strikes and has always demonstrated a high level of grappling, minimising his opponent’s window of opportunity.
Instead, Hermansson can use his intelligent ring craft, veteran savvy and superior wrestling to nullify Dolidze’s threats of a finish, likely cruising to his second consecutive victory on the scorecards.
The oddsmakers have made Hermansson the same sized favourite against both Dolidze and Brunson which, considering the latter is a much more complicated matchup for the Swede, appears generous here. Backing HERMANSSON TO WIN BY DECISION is therefore the bet to make at 11/8.
Resilient Ribas
Tracy Cortez has long been earmarked by UFC fans as one of the most exciting prospects in the women’s divisions.
With five decision victories in a row under the organisation’s banner, the time has finally come for the 28-year-old to take a significant step up in calibre and demonstrate her evolving abilities against one of the division’s most well-rounded competitors.
AMANDA RIBAS currently sits in the rankings of both the Strawweight and Flyweight divisions, having won five UFC fights against the likes of Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. With excellent point-striking capabilities and impressive grappling in her arsenal, the Brazilian is a stylistic nightmare for any opponent.
Cortez has been a work in progress throughout her UFC tenure, but her reliance on wrestling and top position grappling have been the only clear demonstration of any superior talent. The 28-year-old has looked unimpressive in the standup, and has yet to convincingly win a round where she hasn’t looked to force things to the floor.
Against Ribas, she faces an opponent with an 88% takedown defence rate, who can also make life uncomfortable for her on the mat should she find herself on her back.
Simply put, there is a chance that Cortez does not actually hold an advantage anywhere in this fight. Ribas should be the superior striker of the two, and her activity as she hunts for submissions on bottom could sway the judges to award her rounds even when she is taken down.
For Cortez to win on Saturday night, she is likely going to hunt relentlessly for the takedown, then stall in position to run down the clock. MMA judges are finally evolving towards favouring the competitor that is actively trying to finish the fight, which leads me to believe that backing RIBAS TO WIN BY SUBMISSION OR DECISION at 11/10 is the correct play for Saturday Night’s preliminary bout.
Posted at 1555 GMT on 01/12/22
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