Will Dean picks out his best bets for the latest MMA action, UFC on ABC 3, which takes place earlier than usual this Saturday.
MMA betting tips: UFC on ABC 3
1pt Brian Ortega to win by Submission at 11/4 (General)
1pt Amanda Lemos to win in Round 1 or Round 2 at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Su Mudaerji to win by KO or Submission at 5/4 (bet365)
Mexican standoff
BRIAN ORTEGA’s UFC career has been one of the most fascinating in recent memory. Since his debut in 2014, T-City has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat on numerous occasions, relying on his opportunistic submission ability to lock up front chokes and triangles.
His luck ran out in 2018 when a title bout against Max Holloway resulted in one of the most one-sided main events in UFC history, but Ortega took this as an opportunity to completely reinvent his skillset after a lengthy hiatus. Just when UFC fans thought they knew exactly where his ceiling was, he returned to demonstrate a completely new and refined striking arsenal.
Ortega’s improved striking fundamentals will be key against Yair Rodriguez, a flashy striker with an equal ability to produce impressive finishes from out of nowhere. The Mexican fighter won the 2018 Knockout of the Year with a rare back elbow in the last second of a 25-minute war, and has proven on numerous occasions that he can produce similar moments of brilliance.
However, La Pantera’s unorthodox techniques often present the opportunity for opponents to grapple him, as he finds himself off balance from throwing a highlight-reel kick or spinning attack. If Ortega can stay safe from his opponent’s unpredictable style, he will find openings to lock up a submission or at least force a scramble.
Saturday night’s main event should be an exciting one, with plenty of chaotic moments from both fast-thinking fighters to keep fans on the edge of their seats. In the end, Ortega’s durability and defensive striking improvements should keep him safe from a flash knockout, and can he will find his opponent’s neck and secure a choke.
Backing ORTEGA TO WIN BY SUBMISSION at 11/4 is the best way to capitalise on the chaos.
Light workout for Lemos
After a disappointing end to her first main event, AMANDA LEMOS returns to the Octagon in what feels suspiciously like a tune up fight for the Brazilian. Michelle Waterson’s recent UFC schedule clearly shows that the organisation are looking to capitalise off her name value, and a win for Lemos would be the perfect way for the Brazilian prospect to regain the momentum needed to ascend the rankings.
To make matters worse for Waterson, she suffered a bad injury in March and is unlikely to have many years left in her 27-fight career. The Karate Hottie has not looked impressive in her last few performances, losing three of her last four and claiming her only victory by a controversial and narrow margin.
Intangibles aside, Lemos has shown herself to be one of the most skilled fighters that the Women’s Strawweight division has to offer. In fact, were Lemos competing against Waterson in the prime of her career, the current 2/7 betting odds available would not be too far from accurate. Instead, she meats a version of Waterson which is well past that.
The difference in power should simply be too much for Waterson to handle in this fight. She has always relied on her speed and elusive style to help her win rounds, but with the judges clearly favouring damage over volume in 2022, it is hard to see how the American wins this fight.
Lemos’ finishing ability has been a breath of fresh air to Women’s MMA, having found a first-round stoppage stoppage in three of her five UFC wins. With uncertainties surrounding Waterson’s overall longevity within the sport, this feels like an opportunity for the Brazilian to bounce back in a huge way. LEMOS TO WIN IN ROUND ONE OR TWO is worth a wager at 3/1.
Short work for Su
SU MUDAERJI is one of the most exciting Asian prospects that MMA has seen in some time. The 16-4 striker has the perfect blend of speed and power, and only looks to be getting better with each walk he makes to the Octagon.
Matt Schnell provides a significant step up in competition for the Tibetan fighter, but it is a challenge he can certainly overcome. The American is certainly the more well-rounded fighter of the two, but his durability seems past the point of no return. Danger has been knocked out in six of his eight losses and seems to get hurt with a significant strike in almost every fight.
Schnell has always relied on a speed advantage to assist with his striking, but it doesn’t appear he has one here. With his striking defence a serious liability, Su should have plenty of opportunity to land cleanly on his opponent. Backing SU TO WIN BY KO OR SUBMISSION at 5/4 feels like a steal at odds-against.
Posted at 2040 BST on 14/07/22
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