Will Dean is backing Chris Gutierrez to survive an early onslaught and win at UFC Fight Night: Columbus on Saturday.
MMA betting tips: UFC Columbus
2pts Chris Gutierrez to win at 6/5 (General)
1pt Ilir Latifi to win by decision at 12/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Aliaskhab Khizriev to win by KO/TKO at 10/3 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Sara McMann to win at 15/8 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
Swinging the Hammer
Two Heavyweight grapplers face off on the main card as Sweden’s ILIR LATIFI takes on a dangerous submission threat in Aleksei Oleinik. The former’s recent move up to the Heavyweight division has been a successful one so far, defeating Tanner Boser and losing a very close bout with fifth-ranked Derrick Lewis, both by decision.
Recent fortunes have not been kind to Oleinik who, at 44 years old, is on a three-fight losing streak to decreasing levels of competition. The Boa Constrictor is respected as one of MMA’s most successful submission artists, but a lack of athleticism has seen him struggle to compete in other areas of the sport.
Latifi’s last win and Oleinik’s last loss provide good insight when projecting what this fight should look like. The Swede spent most of his victory in top control, safely sitting in Boser’s guard and letting the clock run down. Oleinik, by comparison, found himself pinned to the mat and defending a variety of submission attempts. Saturday night’s contest should look similar, with The Sledgehammer wrestling his way to the advantageous position and taking a conservative approach from there.
Oleinik has been knocked out numerous times in his career, but Latifi’s Heavyweight venture has seen him prioritise his cardio and ultimately lower his striking output significantly. After a few precarious minutes of lacklustre punching, this fight should settle into a tepid grappling pace. Both men may unsuccessfully search for submissions, but Latifi’s skillset as the better wrestler should see him emerge on top in both the fight itself and the judges’ scorecards. At 12/5, backing LATIFI TO WIN BY DECISION is an appealing play in an otherwise unappealing fight.
Kick up a Storm
CHRIS GUTIERREZ has always been one of the more intriguing fighters to watch on the UFC’s roster, due to his unique kicking offence. El Guapo fires kicks to the head, body and (most successfully) legs of his opponents, rendering their defences useless as they try and fail to predict where the next blow will land.
Batgerel Danaa has bounced back from a disappointing result in his 2019 UFC debut, reeling off three first-round finishes since then. Storm fights with an intense and aggressive pressure, always looking to close the distance and swing hooks at his opponent. Against an evasive striker like Gutierrez, fans should expect a bull-and-matador type of fight.
El Guapo is a master at range management and, inside the bigger cage at UFC Columbus, he will have every opportunity to circle away from his opponent and continue firing off kicks. Across seven UFC bouts, Gutierrez has managed a 62% striking defence, maintaining a 59% accuracy return of his own, highlighting his efficiency and awareness of danger.
Danaa’s previous UFC fights also indicate that Gutierrez’s chances of winning should improve the longer this one lasts. In the Mongolian’s three-minute knockout victory against Guido Cannetti in 2020, he absorbed eight southpaw leg-kicks that buckled him on numerous occasions. Furthermore, in his UFC debut, he slowed down significantly in round three.
If Gutierrez can survive a dangerous first round while simultaneously investing in his leg kicks, then this fight should be his for the taking in the second and third. The Texan has never been finished via strikes in 22 professional bouts, which makes me think this could be a stylistically advantageous fight for him. Backing GUTIERREZ TO WIN at 6/5 could be the best underdog bet on the card.
Arriving in style
ALIASKHAB KHIZRIEV finally makes his long-awaited UFC debut in Columbus, having had four prior fights cancelled for various reasons. Denis Tiuliulin thankfully steps in on short notice to make this an all-Russian affair, but the gap in skill should look astronomical.
Khizriev is an absolute buzzsaw from the opening bell, with a plethora of dangerous weapons at his disposal. Whether he is ripping vicious shots to the body and head or, perhaps most impressively, threatening with strikes and submissions on the mat, any fighter locked in the cage with him is at risk of being finished from the get-go.
Tiuliulin’s 10-5 professional record paints an accurate picture of his overall skillset, with the combined records of the opponents he has beaten accumulating to 25-29 (including five debutants). A low level of competition is usually very telling for a short-notice debutant, and it seems the UFC were willing to bring in just about anyone as a sacrificial lamb to kickstart Khizriev’s hype train.
I am fully expecting The Black Wolf to obliterate his fellow debutant within minutes of the opening bell, most likely in highlight reel fashion. Khizriev opened as a 2/7 favourite, but even that was seen as a value price by the betting public. Now an eye-watering 1/7, many will instead be shopping in the prop markets for an alternative.
Given the pace Khizriev sets, along with the huge step up in competition for Tiuliulin, I’d be surprised if this fight went to the judges’ scorecards. While he showed off his impressive grappling on Dana White’s Contender Series, Khizriev actually has more victories by knockout in his career.
Whether he catches Tiuliulin on the feet or forces a TKO victory on the mat, KHIZRIEV TO WIN BY KO/TKO is too big a price at 100/30.
Testing the waters
Karol Rosa’s preliminary bout with SARA MCMANN should give UFC fans and matchmakers a clear understanding of the Brazilian’s potential as a prospect, given that she is yet to face a significant grappling threat in the organisation.
McMann is one of the most prolific wrestlers in Women’s MMA and has proven a test for many Bantamweights over the years. Across 16 UFC bouts, the wrestler has successfully taken down 14 of her opponents (failing in very quick losses to both Ronda Rousey and Amanda Nunes), proving that she is reliable to chase the path of least resistance.
With Rosa’s grappling an unknown quantity, the value looks to be all over the underdog at the current price. The Brazilian has proven herself to be an impressive volume-based decision winner, but that will mean nothing if she spends extended periods of the fight on her back.
The unknown factors in this fight mean that either competitor could look like a significant favourite in hindsight. With that being the case, having a small wager on MCMANN TO WIN at 15/8 is an essential wager to make for this card.
Posted at 1310 GMT on 24/03/22
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