Paddy Pimblett is the star attraction at UFC 282 on Saturday night, but Will Dean is backing Jared Gordon to pull off an upset victory.
UFC 282 tips: Saturday December 10
1pt Jared Gordon to Win by Decision at 5/1 (William Hill)
0.5pts Billy Quarantillo to Win in Round 3 at 14/1 (BetVictor)
2pts Edmen Shahbazyan to Win by TKO/KO or Submission at 21/20 (Betway)
0.5pts Edmen Shahbazyan to Win by Submission at 8/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred)
Liverpool’s Paddy Pimblett features in his first UFC Pay-Per-View on Saturday night, starring on the card’s Co-Main Event. The confident Scouser faces one of the company’s veterans in JARED GORDON, a man who has shared the Octagon with the likes of Charles Oliveira, Carlos Diego Ferreira and Grant Dawson.
There is no doubt that this fight’s high profile is all due to Pimblett and his ever-rising stardom in MMA, as Gordon has been a consistent preliminary fighter that has never really impressed UFC fans with his performances so far. That being said, this is still an appropriate challenge for The Baddy, and one that he must take seriously if he is hoping to continue his ascension up the Lightweight rankings.
As is often the case when an MMA fighter’s popularity transcends the sport, the betting lines have swollen disproportionately in Pimblett’s favour. The Liverpudlian may have gone undefeated in his first three UFC bouts, but it has not all been smooth sailing inside the cage.
On his debut he was clearly hurt by the striking of Luigi Vendramini, he was arguably knocked down by Kaszula Vargas, and Jordan Leavitt was competitive in the opening round of their most recent bout. To Pimblett’s credit, none of the aforementioned fighters have been able to truly capitalise on these moments, but The Baddy’s performances inside the Octagon have been far from perfect so far.
Gordon is a well-rounded competitor who rarely gets outclassed by his opponents, but his ability to win wrestling exchanges is what makes him a challenge for anyone with a grappling-based offense.
To have success from top position and threaten with the majority of dangerous submissions, a fighter first has to secure their opponent on the mat – something that Pimblett should struggle to achieve in this fight. Instead, Gordon should easily be able to do the same to the Liverpudlian, where he can coast on top and win rounds.
Of course, Pimblett is the much more potent finisher of the two and can win this fight with one moment of brilliance, as his last three bouts have shown. It is impossible to ignore that, but were Paddy Pimblett a soft-spoken and introverted American with no real popularity behind him, this fight would be close to a pick’em on the betting line.
Therefore, backing JARED GORDON TO WIN BY DECISION, as he has done in six of his seven UFC wins, is the controversial yet value play at 5/1.
Better late than never
Both Alexander Hernandez and BILLY QUARANTILLO have been involved in a number of exciting preliminary bouts over the last few years.
Hernandez was initially the more successful of the two, scoring an upset knock out of Beneil Dariush (the now number four ranked Lightweight) in a 42-second debut, but has failed to deliver on the UFC’s investment in him in subsequent years. Conversely, Quarantillo has risen to prominence by partaking in fan-friendly brawls, winning four of his six UFC bouts as a result.
While both men appear evenly matched on paper, the difference in pacing and endurance should likely decide the winner on Saturday night. Hernandez has shown clear cardio issues throughout his UFC tenure, relying heavily on early knockout wins to prevent his weaknesses from showing. Quarantillo is instead a fighter who grows into the action, and his volume and tenacity remains at an equally smothering tempo across all three rounds.
The balance is therefore likely to swing at some point in the second round, where Billy Q should take over and provide a dominant performance in the latter half – likely earning him the victory in the process.
Made my @ufc debut 3 years ago today!!! What a ride it has been. Pumped for this Saturday 😏 #ufc282 pic.twitter.com/yZuUXcn0tV
— Billy Quarantillo (@BillyQMMA) December 8, 2022
The 33-year-old has registered eight of his 12 stoppage victories in the second half of the fight, with four of these coming in the third round. Given Hernandez’s clear cardio concerns, Billy Q has a real chance at adding to that total. At 13/1, backing BILLY QUARANTILLO TO WIN IN ROUND 3 looks to be a great value bet.
Golden Boy Still Gleaming
Despite both fighters entering the Octagon on three-fight losing streaks, the public’s perception of both EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN and Dalcha Lungiambula could not be more contrasting.
The former was once regarded as one of the most exciting up and coming talents in the UFC, most likely due to his young age and affiliation with Ronda Rousey and Glendale Fighting Club where they both trained.
Ironically, as soon as the weaknesses and losses started to emerge for Shahbazyan, people were quick to identify that the very same allegiances that had helped catapult him into stardom were also responsible for holding him back.
In the last 18 months, The Golden Boy has finally switched up his training camps, initially working with Khabib and his fellow Dagestanis at the American Kickboxing Academy before moving to Xtreme Couture and the UFC’s Performance Institute in Las Vegas. Such moves can only produce good things for the now 25-year-old, who will be looking to breathe new life into his revivable MMA career.
It very much seems that the UFC’s hope here is that Shahbazyan can return to winning ways, and that the investments they have already made in his career can still amount to something due to his young age. The Golden Boy’s struggles inside the Octagon have been largely endurance related, as his eagerness to secure a finish in the early exchanges has often left him exposed – so the UFC have kindly matched him up with an opponent with similar issues.
Skill for skill, Shahbazyan appears the better fighter than Lungiambula across all facets of MMA and, with his biggest weakness seemingly not at play here, he should be in the clear to put on a dominant display and re-announce himself to the Middleweight division.
The Golden Boy has always been a reliable finisher so, given that Lungiambula has also been stopped in four of his five professional losses, backing SHAHBAZYAN TO WIN BY TKO/KO OR SUBMISSION at 21/20 is a confident play.
For an added wager, SHAHBAZYAN TO WIN BY SUBMISSION also appeals at 8/1. Having spent time training with the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev in recent months, a grappling approach could be on the cards for the Armenian fighter.
Having seen his aggressive grappling style on full display in a 72 second submission win over Jack Marshman in 2019, Shahbazyan certainly has what it takes to force the tap out should he opt for the path of least resistance.
Posted at 1205 GMT on 09/12/22
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