Will Dean previews UFC 278, where Paolo Costa and Miranda Maverick both feature in his staking plan.
MMA betting tips: UFC 278
2pts Paulo Costa to win in rounds 1 or 2 at 5/6 (Paddy Power)
1pt Paulo Costa to win by TKO/KO in round 1 at 11/5 (Paddy Power)
2pts Miranda Maverick to win inside the distance at 7/5 (Betway)
1pt Miranda Maverick to win by Submission at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
PAULO COSTA’s career has suffered greatly in the last year as an underwhelming performance in his 2020 title fight against Israel Adesanya, as well as a subsequent loss to Marvin Vettori, caused many MMA fans to forget just how devastating and exciting a prospect the Brazilian really is.
Prior to those losses, Borrachinha boasted a 13-0 record, with 12 consecutive stoppages and a decision victory over Yoel Romero. He was thought of as one of the UFC’s most dangerous power punchers and was expected to give Adesanya a tough challenge. While the champion has since proven himself to be a cut above the entire division, Costa should still be firmly considered a frontrunner amongst the rest.
At UFC 278, Costa faces Luke Rockhold - a former champion returning after a near three year lay-off. The American recently took time away from the sport after suffering back-to-back knockout losses, but injuries have prolonged his absence from the Octagon.
Soon to be reaching 38 years old, the odds certainly seem stacked against Rockhold in this fight. Time is truly undefeated in MMA, where careers almost always end with a whimper, rather than a bang. The sheer reliance on speed and durability will always favour youth and, when coupled with Rockhold’s durability issues, the stage seems set for yet another devastating highlight-reel knockout from Costa.
Such a narrative is of course hardly surprising and, judging by the current betting, most are expecting the Brazilian to find an eventual stoppage in this fight. To compensate for this, a bet on COSTA TO WIN IN ROUNDS 1 OR 2 certainly appeals at 5/6, as his pressure-heavy style often depletes his cardio in the later rounds, and all 12 of his career stoppage victories have come in the opening two stanzas.
Given Rockhold’s precarious situation with age and durability, a further bet on COSTA TO WIN BY KO/TKO IN ROUND 1 is also worth a bet at 11/5.
Maverick can play her cards right
MIRANDA MAVERICK makes her sixth trip to the Octagon as she looks to rebuild the excitement around her young and promising career. The 25-year-old was thought by many to be a future title contender, but consecutive losses in 2021 seem to have plunged her into obscurity.
Maverick returned to winning ways in March this year, securing a second-round submission victory over Sabina Mazo. The young grappler fought with a new sense of urgency on the mat, aggressively advancing position and hunting more swiftly for submissions. It is widely known that the best way for a fighter to generate more excitement around their career is to produce finishes, so perhaps Maverick is intending to compensate for last year’s setbacks from here on.
She has the perfect opportunity to secure another stoppage against Shanna Young on Saturday, having already submitted The Shanimal in a 2019 amateur fight. From the opening bell of that bout, Maverick showed her grappling superiority, securing a Rear Naked Choke in under three minutes and barely breaking sweat. Almost three years have passed since, but Young does not appear to have made any major defensive improvements to suggest she will have any greater a chance of survival this weekend.
Due to the result of their first encounter, Maverick currently sits as a 1/6 favourite - the shortest priced fighter on the UFC 278 prelims. However, with Women’s MMA typically containing fewer finishes, there is clear value to be found in backing MAVERICK TO WIN INSIDE THE DISTANCE at 7/5. For a more specific yet appealing wager, backing MAVERICK TO WIN BY SUBMISSION at 15/8 is also recommended for a portion of the stake.
Posted at 0945 BST on 11/08/22
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