MMA betting tips: UFC 275 preview and best bets
Will Dean picks out his best bets for the latest UFC action and fancies Brendan Allen to get the better of Jacob Malkoun.
MMA betting tips: UFC 275
4pts Teixeira & Prochazka to last under 2.5 rounds & Brendan Allen to win at 23/20 (BetVictor)
1pt Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win by Decision at 9/4 (bet365)
The UFC’s Light Heavyweight division is still ruing the absence of dominant champion Jon Jones. Since relinquishing the belt two years ago, the 205lbs weight class has been overseen by those that lived in Bones’ shadow during his reign, diminishing the overall validity of their successes and seemingly leaving the division in a limbo until Jones commences his career elsewhere.
Glover Teixeira has been one of the key beneficiaries of Jones’ hiatus, stringing together six consecutive wins and capturing the title at 42 years old. The Brazilian Pit Bull has been counted out time and time again by MMA fans due to his age, but his high level grappling will always make for a great equaliser.
Teixeira’s ascent to the top of the division has been a real MMA fairytale, but a victory for the challenger, Jiri Prochazka, would perhaps be what the Light Heavyweight division really needs. The Czech powerhouse is the frontrunner in a wave of post-Jones 205ers, with Denisa actually making his debut a month after the former champion had relinquished the gold. Were Prochazka to be victorious in the main event, it would feel as if a new era had begun.
The perfect pairing
Getting past Teixeira will be no easy task for Prochazka, with the Brazilian having a distinct advantage on the mat. Should the champion manage to force the fight to the floor with his savvy veteran experience, a stoppage should be soon to follow. Six of Teixeira’s last seven victories have come on the mat, and another seems likely if he can secure a takedown or two in the early goings.
However, all fights commence on the feet and Prochazka will have significant advantages in power and speed when striking. Prolonged exchanges at distance would be disastrous for Teixeira, who has been consistently knocked down by opponents over the years.
Both men therefore wield advantages in the area that their opponent is weakest, strongly increasing the chances of this fight finding a stoppage. Teixeira’s frailty on the feet should force this fight to commence at a fast pace, and with 57 of their 72 combined professional bouts lasting UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS, there is no better selection in the main event to form the first half of a double.
Advantage Allen
Before the main card action kicks off, BRENDAN ALLEN faces Jacob Malkoun in the preliminary headliner. Despite both fighters being the same age, All In has more than three times the experience of his opponent, and has also faced a much tougher level of competition in the UFC so far.
Allen came to the UFC as a highly skilled submission grappler and demonstrated his talent in impressive wins over Kevin Holland and Kyle Daukaus. Since then, he has massively improved his striking and has grown into a well-rounded fighter. Against Malkoun, Allen might just be the better combatant in every aspect of martial arts.
Malkoun, a training partner of UFC fan favourite and former champion Robert Whittaker, made his UFC debut in 2020 when his record sat at just 4-0. Despite entering the cage as an underdog in each of his three subsequent UFC appearances, he was victorious in his last two.
Whilst it’s been impressive seeing the Australian defy the odds against more experienced opposition, he has benefitted from facing the exact same archetype on each occasion. Mamba has been able to survive against one-punch knockout artists and grapple his way to a decision once their cardio abandons them.
Should Malkoun look to grapple against Allen, an opponent who can fight for 15 minutes, he will be putting himself in danger against the American’s unique submission offence. Alternatively, if he opts to stand and trade with All In, he is unlikely to get the better of the superior striker via that route either.
Outside of an unexpected knockout for Malkoun, it is hard to see exactly how Allen loses this fight. The oddsmakers seem to agree, deeming him one of the stronger favourites on the card - but honestly I think he should still be a steeper price. Combining ALLEN TO WIN with UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS in the main event looks to be a relatively safe bet, with the double totalling at 23/20 at some books.
Singapore sequel
JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK’s first showdown with Weili Zhang was widely regarded as the 2020 Fight Of The Year, with many arguing that the 25-minute brawl stands out as the best Women’s MMA fight of all time.
Both women rose to the occasion on that night in March, with over 350 significant strikes landed and damage inflicted on both sides. Zhang emerged as the eventual winner, but the judges’ scorecards were so indecisive that it could so easily have gone the other way. In fact, only one of the five rounds was scored unanimously in one fighter’s favour - Jedrzejczyk in round three.
Given how close the first encounter was, I am struggling to see how Jedrzejczyk has been deemed a 13/8 underdog in the rematch. She may have taken some time off since that fight, but the evolution we have seen from Zhang may actually make the rematch more favourable for the Polish former champion.
Since moving to the USA to train with Henry Cejudo, Zhang has shown much more of an interest in grappling her opponents. Becoming a more well-rounded martial artist is never a bad thing, but Magnum has not looked as impressive on the feet in her last two fights as a result. Furthermore, Jedrzejczyk has always had phenomenal takedown defence, and should be able to stifle the grappling attempts from her opponent with relative ease and win those exchanges.
Overall, this fight seems as close of a matchup as you could ever hope to find in the UFC, which should certainly be reflected in the betting odds. When both fighters should realistically be around even money, there is definitely value on Jedrzejczyk at this price. The last fight clearly demonstrated the durability of both women, so backing Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win by Decision at 9/4 is the best way to squeeze as much value out of the betting line as possible.
Posted at 1025 BST on 09/06/22
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