Our profitable MMA tipster Will Dean takes a look at UFC 272, where Colby Covington and Nick Hardy are tipped to win in contrasting ways.
MMA betting tips: UFC 272
3pts Colby Covington to win by decision at evens (Betfred)
1pt Greg Hardy to win by KO/TKO at 100/30 (BoyleSports)
0.5pt Greg Hardy to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Controlled Chaos
Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal’s feud is well-documented, as the two Welterweights are former best friends, roommates and sparring partners. While both men have detailed a contrasting sequence of events that led them to the UFC 272 main event, they are at least in agreement over their eagerness to inflict damage on one another.
Covington has long been recognised as the division’s second-best competitor behind reigning champion Kamaru Usman, but a wide gulf in ability separates them from the rest of the pack. The wrestler’s smothering pressure and crisp boxing has made him a nightmare matchup for many, and only the division’s champion has been able to solve the puzzle.
Masvidal, on the other hand, sits at sixth in the rankings and has profited from a surge in popularity in recent years. After two viral knockouts of Darren Till and Ben Askren, as well as a subsequent victory over the notorious Nate Diaz, Gamebred was presented with back-to-back title fights against Usman, losing badly on both occasions.
Popularity can only carry a fighter so far in the UFC, and the gap in skill between these two will become apparent once the cage door closes. Covington’s higher output and wrestling ability should see him win rounds convincingly, with Masvidal having to rely on an explosive moment of brilliance to secure him the victory.
The betting line for this fight accurately conveys Chaos's superiority, with the All-American priced as a heavy favourite on Saturday night. That said, Covington has never been able to turn his dominance into finishing ability, with five of his last six victories coming via decision (and the only outlier due to injury).
Conversely, Masvidal has been incredibly difficult to finish, losing inside the distance just four times in a 50-fight career. Usman was able to score a shock knockout in Gamebred’s last fight, but Covington has nowhere near the stopping power of the champion. All signs point to a dominant victory on the scorecards for Chaos, so backing COVINGTON TO WIN BY DECISION at evens seems the logical choice for Saturday night’s main event.
Hardy Break a Sweat
Heavyweights collide in the opening bout of the main card, as Greg Hardy and Sergey Spivak lock horns in an interesting clash of styles.
Hardy, a former NFL defensive end, clearly wields the power advantage and will be hoping to score an early knockout against his wrestling-based opponent. Spivak will hold the upper hand in cardio and grappling if he is able to drag this fight to the floor, but the Moldovan will have to walk through fire to get there.
This is a regular puzzle that The Polar Bear is required to solve, as the threat of a round one knockout loss was extremely prominent in his bouts against Walt Harris, Tai Tuivasa and Tom Aspinall. Spivak was unable to survive in two of these fights - lasting just 50 seconds in his debut against Harris and under three minutes most recently against Aspinall. Considering how reliant he is on his grappling, Spivak is patient in timing his takedown attempts, something that could cost him on Saturday night.
Were this fight taking place in a lower weight class, I would understand the oddsmakers deeming Spivak a moderate favourite. The Moldovan is clearly the more well-rounded fighter who will comfortably win over a longer duration, but Heavyweight power is worth much more than it is being given credit for here. Hardy only really has one clear path to victory, but that route is actively available to him as soon as the fight starts.
This bout is going to descend into chaos at some point, but figuring out who will emerge victorious really does feel like a coin flip. With that in mind, I would much rather be backing the 100/30 on HARDY TO WIN BY KO/TKO, than any of the shorter prices on Spivak’s side. For an added wager, backing The Prince of War to score a KO IN ROUND ONE at 13/2 is even more appealing.
- CLICK HERE to back Hardy by KO/TKO with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Hardy to win in Round 1 with Sky Bet
Posted at 1615 GMT on 03/03/22
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
