Will Dean returns with his look ahead to UFC 271, where fireworks are expected from Jared Cannonier.
MMA betting tips: UFC 271
2pts Adesanya vs Whittaker to end inside the distance at evens (William Hill)
2pts Jared Cannonier to win by KO or submission at 6/5 (bet365)
1pt Casey O’Neill to win by KO/TKO at 4/1 (Betfred)
Izzy Does It
Despite Israel Adesanya’s decisive title unification victory over Robert Whittaker in October 2019, there was never any doubt that the two would meet yet again at the summit of the Middleweight division. The Last StyleBender has enjoyed a dominant reign in the last two years, but Whittaker has certainly made life easier for the champion.
The Reaper rebounded from the loss to Adesanya by reeling off three dominant decision victories over the best the division has to offer - firmly cementing himself and the champion as a cut above the rest and leaving no worthy contender.
The ever-confident Adesanya was more than happy to oblige, with his dominant second round knockout of Whittaker still fresh in the mind. The Nigerian-born striker could have ended things sooner, scoring a knockdown in the final seconds of the opening round before the buzzer kept his opponent’s hopes alive. Whittaker continued pressing the action and looked to have found his feet again, until a left hook connected in the pocket and sent The Reaper to the canvas.
Adesanya’s 7-inch reach advantage was a huge factor in the first fight, as it forced Whittaker to come crashing forward to close the distance. Many were confused by The Reaper’s gameplan that night, but it is hard to imagine him winning a standup battle any other way. Adesanya is the far superior fighter at kickboxing range and will happily counter-strike his way to a 25 minute decision victory, leaving Whittaker no choice but to force the boxing exchanges in close or attempt a takedown.
Their first fight started off at a frantic pace because of this, and I expect the same heart-in-mouth moments to feature heavily in the rematch. Adesanya showed his power in the first fight, but things could have very easily turned out in The Reaper’s favour had he landed a clean strike on the way in.
Considering the first fight was an all-action affair with numerous fight-ending sequences, it is a surprise to see oddsmakers expecting the fight to go the distance. As long as Whittaker bites down on the mouthpiece and commits to closing the distance, then a finish will never be too far away. Backing the FIGHT TO FINISH EARLY at evens is a must-bet.
King Casey to call Checkmate
After an 18 year professional career, Roxanne Modafferi has decided to hang up her gloves. Despite never holding a major title, many regard The Happy Warrior as a pioneer of Women’s MMA, competing around the world as one of the first professional female Mixed Martial Artists.
Combat sports is an incredibly unforgiving game, where older fighters go out with a whimper and not a bang. The UFC knows this, and with Modafferi confirming her retirement plans before her bout with Casey O’Neill was scheduled, the company immediately moved to utilise her in the most businesslike manner - using her name as a veteran to bolster the record of an up-and-coming prospect.
Context aside, this is a nightmare matchup for Modafferi. The Happy Warrior has been taken down 14 times in her last four fights and O’Neill will almost certainly add to this. King Casey’s topside grappling is aggressive and mean, raining down an abundance of punches and slicing elbows as soon as she gets things to the mat.
Modafferi has been hard to finish in her career but very few fighters in the division consistently get stoppage victories like O’Neill. The Scottish-born Australian’s activity on top will be too much for The Happy Warrior, who could once again prove that there are no fairytale endings in MMA. O'NEILL TO WIN BY KO/TKO is a great price at 4/1.
Cannon-Ball
Derek Brunson has been on a tear in the Middleweight division in the last few years. Since losing by knockout to event-headliner Israel Adesanya, he has racked up an impressive five-fight win streak against increasingly superior competition. The betting lines across these five bouts paint an accurate picture, as seriously questions over Brunson’s durability saw him the betting underdog on all but one occasion (which was only a coin-flip itself).
Realistically, Brunson has been given the best string of opponents he could ask for. Each of these opponents have possessed a significant weakness that he has been able to exploit. Whether it was rudimentary striking, inferior cardio, or the inability to stop a takedown, Brunson has beaten the odds on every occasion and proven himself a savvy fighter.
Brunson enters the cage as an underdog once again on Saturday night, but this time it just might be warranted. JARED CANNONIER is a hard hitter without a glaringly obvious flaw to exploit. The Killa Gorilla is going to be the much stronger fighter in the cage, and has the cardio and takedown defence to keep the fight standing for 15 whole minutes. If Brunson gets stuck in the striking realm with Cannonier, expect a knockout to follow soon after.
Cannonier, a former Heavyweight, has won five of his six UFC victories via knockout. The most impressive of these was against last week’s main-eventer, Jack Hermansson, who is ridiculously durable and difficult to finish. Given the power that Cannonier seemingly possesses, it is hard to see Brunson, who has been knocked out on five occasions himself, survive to see the judges’ scorecards.
Adesanya has always spoken highly of Cannonier, labelling him a future threat to his title. The Killa Gorilla is in a prime position to make a statement on the same card as the Champion with an emphatic win here, and Brunson is the perfect sacrificial lamb. Backing Cannonier to win by KO or Submission at 6/5 is a great value spot here.
Posted at 1340 GMT on 12/02/22
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