MMA betting tips: UFC 269 preview and best bets including Oliveira v Poirier

MMA betting tips: UFC 269

2pts Charles Oliveira to win at 11/8 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

1pts Kai Kara-France to win by KO or submission at 11/4 (General)

3pts Bruno Silva to win in round 1 or round 2 at 10/11 (PaddyPower, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

How to watch UFC 269

• The action is live on BT Sport 2 from 0100 GMT on Sunday November 12

CHARLES OLIVEIRA’s rise to the top of the Lightweight division is a real fairytale story. Having plied his trade at the lower half of the rankings for over 11 years, the Brazilian was sharpening his skills and biding his time before surging through the top 15 during the pandemic. His title-winning bout against Michael Chandler in May was especially significant, as many criticised Oliveira’s ability to survive adversity in his career. He was extremely close to being finished in the first round, before regaining his composure on the stool and snatching victory from the jaws of defeat just seconds later.

Now boasting a nine-fight winning streak, Do Bronx can cement his place in Lightweight history with a win on Saturday night. His opponent, Dustin Poirier, was originally scheduled to compete for the title when it was relinquished by Khaibib Nurmagomedov at the start of the year, but a huge payday against Conor McGregor was simply too enticing for The Diamond to ignore. Many fans have always felt that Poirier is the second best fighter at Lightweight behind the Russian, and Oliveira is once again deemed the underdog.

Do Bronx has been severely underrated for his whole career and, despite numerous standout performances arguing the contrary, people still believe his time as champion is limited. Throughout his winning streak, his striking skills have improved tremendously, with snapping kicks and a competent jab fortifying his arsenal. As the record holder for most submission wins in UFC history, the Brazilian’s ground game is feared by many and ability to get fights to the floor is also a sight to behold.

Overall, Oliveira may prove to be just too much for Poirier to handle. The Diamond has competed against a whole host of strikers over the last four years (with the exception of Nurmagomedov) and faces a very different stylistic matchup to any since his ascent to the top. Despite this, Poirier has still shown some weaknesses with his grappling defence, being taken down four times by Dan Hooker and seven by Khabib. If Oliveira is crafty with his entries, there is a chance he can go back to his roots with a submission threat.

To Poirier’s credit, he is a difficult fighter to beat across the distance, so Oliveira should be looking to find the finish as quickly as possible. The Brazilian’s improvement seemingly knows no bounds, so backing the ever underrated OLIVEIRA TO WIN at 11/8 could be a steal.

• CLICK HERE to back Oliveira with Sky Bet

Don’t Blink

Cody Garbrandt’s UFC career looks to be at a crossroads, as a string of knockout losses seems to have affected his confidence. As a result, the former Bantamweight champion is dropping 10lbs and making his debut in the Flyweight division on Saturday night against Kai Kara-France.

Changing weight-classes is relatively common in MMA, but not in a division this small. We saw how difficult the situation became when Garbrandt’s former rival TJ Dillashaw made the drop; using a banned substance to help his body cope, looking incredibly frail in the build up to the fight, and subsequently losing by knockout inside a minute.

The cautionary tale has already been written here, yet Garbrandt still insists on making the move down. It is well documented that cutting an unadvised amount of weight worsens your overall durability which, coupled with Garbrandt’s already lapse striking defence, makes for a high probability that he meets the same fate that Dillashaw did.

Even without the cut, Garbrandt’s opponent Kai Kara-France would provide a stiff test. The New Zealander is one of the most entertaining fighters on the roster, eager to get involved in scrappy affairs and test his mettle in a battle of grit and durability.

Don’t Blink will be getting precisely what he is looking for on Saturday night, as Garbrandt has always struggled to keep his emotions in check and has abandoned his game plan in favour of swinging wild hooks on countless occasions.

If Kara-France can lure No Love into a brawl, then the durability absolutely sides with the New Zealander. Backing KARA-FRANCE TO WIN BY KO OR SUBMISSION at 11/4 is therefore the play in a fight that almost guarantees chaos.

• CLICK HERE to back Kara-France by KO or submission with Sky Bet

Gold for Silva

As one of the biggest favourites on the card, Bruno Silva is expected to make quick work of Jordan Wright in the preliminaries. The Brazilian has been a trailblazer since making his UFC debut in June, collecting two knockout victories in emphatic fashion.

Wright has been a polarising figure in MMA for a few years now, with many questioning his intentions after his first nine wins came against a combined record of 9-41 (with four being debutants). For his 10th professional bout, he fought a now-UFC fighter on the Contender Series, suffering a knockout in just 40 seconds.

The Beverly Hills Ninja has gone on to win and lose two bouts in the UFC, but there is a clear sense that Wright is only comfortable being the hammer and not the nail. Against Blindado on Saturday night, the sheer difference in intensity and brute force should be apparent as soon as Wright realises the Brazilian will not back down after his first clean punch.

When Wright realises he cannot match the Brazilian’s power, he will start to panic and back up in a straight line. From here, Silva will begin stalking his prey and likely finds a quick finish soon after. 18 of Silva’s wins have come via knockout, with 16 of these coming in rounds one or two.

Considering that, win or lose, Wright has never been to a third round in his career, backing BRUNO SILVA TO WIN IN ROUND 1 OR ROUND 2 is a great way to play the justifiably heavy favourite.

Posted at 1430 GMT on 10/12/21

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.