MMA betting tips: UFC 267
3pts Albert Duraev to win by KO or Submission at 5/6 (bet365)
2pts Amanda Ribas to win by Decision at 13/10 (bet365)
2pts Alexander Volkov to win by KO/TKO at 7/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
How to watch UFC 267
- The action is live on BT Sport 2 HD from 1700 BST.
Russian Roulette
UFC 267 showcases some of the organisation’s most promising Russian talent, with one preliminary bout seeing two countrymen face off against one another. The debuting Albert Duraev actually has more professional MMA experience than the returning Roman Kopylov, whose UFC debut ended in a shock submission loss to kickboxer Karl Roberson.
Roberson is notorious for his lacklustre grappling skills, so the loss was an embarrassing one for Kopylov. Either side of that result, he withdrew from three different scheduled bouts against favourable opponents, and it seems the UFC’s patience has worn thin. Matchmakers can be ruthless, and the decision to pit Kopylov against recent Contender Series standout Duraev will certainly have been intentional; aiming to build another potential prospect at the expense of someone with a limited future in the company.
Credit where it's due, Duraev looks a promising talent. Machete brings an aggressive and suffocating grappling style to the cage, with comparisons to Khabib Nurmagomedov naturally being made. A dozen of his 14 victories have come inside the distance, with nine by submission and a further three due to strikes.
The small glimpses of poor defensive grappling seen from Kopylov suggest that Duraev is going to run straight through him, with a suffocating pace that will see the former pinned to the mat for the majority of the fight. Kopylov does have a puncher’s chance, but the majority of his knockout victories have been via accumulation in the latter rounds.
Duraev will likely not give him the chance to land anything meaningful, instead wasting little time finding a finish of his own.
I expect an impressive debut from the Russian, with DURAEV WINNING BY KO OR SUBMISSION in the first or second rounds. At 5/6, this could be one of the best bets of the entire Russian-dominated card.
Brazilian Showdown
Amanda Ribas looks to bounce back from January’s disappointing knockout defeat to Marina Rodriguez. The Brazilian is still one of the most well-rounded women in the division, with good striking fundamentals and impressive grappling and submission ability.
Many believe she is still capable of potentially challenging for the belt one day, and a victory on Saturday night against Virna Jandiroba would be the perfect place to rebuild a winning streak.
Ribas’ most impressive UFC performance came against Mackenzie Dern, a dangerous submission threat. In their fight, Dern struggled to land takedowns and found herself soundly beaten on the feet in a 15-minute striking fight.
Dern plays a key part in dissecting this weekend’s bout, as she bears a strong resemblance to Jandiroba in both strengths and weaknesses. Jandiroba is arguably the second-best submission grappler in the division behind Dern, but she too struggles to compete in the striking department when she cannot get her opponent to the mat.
Furthermore, Dern and Jandiroba actually fought in late 2020. In that bout, both women’s grappling credentials cancelled each other out, with Dern comfortably emerging as the superior striker and overall winner.
On most occasions, MMA is much more complex than simply comparing results against common opponents, but if Dern’s striking was clearly superior to Jandiroba’s, then Ribas should have absolutely no problem winning rounds in a striking battle on Saturday night.
Jandiroba is certainly a dangerous fighter if given the opportunity to hunt for a submission, but Ribas is by far the more complete martial artist across 15 minutes and has shown good Jiu-Jitsu skills and takedown defence in her own right.
While Ribas should be relatively dominant on the feet, she does not possess much power in her hands. She is also unlikely to find a submission of her own against an elite grappler like Jandiroba, so backing RIBAS TO WIN BY DECISION at 13/10 is the best way to play this fight.
Dominant Drago
Having made a combined 44 appearances within the same MMA organisations in their careers, it surprises many that ALEXANDER VOLKOV and Marcin Tybura have never crossed paths before.
Both men have unique styles and always deliver entertaining fights, with Volkov testing himself against the division’s best in recent years. Tybura has managed a five-fight winning streak in the preliminaries himself, and takes a well-earned step up in competition against the Russian on Saturday night.
Tybura may be the more skilled fighter overall, but his lack of durability in the Heavyweight division has continued to hold him back. With four of his six professional losses coming by knockout, the gameplan for Tybura often seems clear: survive the early assault and drag a fatigued opponent to the mat.
The takedown defensive of Volkov will make this more challenging than in other recent fights, as the only person to have any real success against the Russian was the division’s most prolific wrestler, Curtis Blaydes.
Volkov also has much better cardio than the average power-punching heavyweight, instead opting for a high-volume striking approach. Drago most recently went 25 minutes with now interim champion, Ciryl Gane, in his last bout, proving that he has the endurance to fight hard for extended periods.
On Saturday night, Tybura will be facing a completely different type of fighter to the ones he has recently beaten, and it seems the step up in competition will see him come unstuck once again.
Given the Polish fighter’s frailty when absorbing strikes, I cannot see him surviving 15 minutes with Volkov, once the Russian proves he won’t wilt.
VOLKOV TO WIN BY KO at 7/4 seems like a very generous price for the 1/3 favourite, and is a far more likely outcome than the odds indicate.
Published at 1040 BST on 28/10/21
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