Giro d'Italia betting tips: Preview and best bets for cycling Classic
Cycling expert Nathan Jackson looks ahead to the Giro d'Italia, with three selections at a range of prices.
Cycling betting tips: Giro d'Italia
3pts Michael Storer to win a stage at 5/2 (Unibet)
3pts Thymen Arenseman in the Young Rider Classification at 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt e.w. Laurence Pithie in the Points Classification at 25/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3)
The 107th edition of the Giro d’Italia and first Grand Tour of the year kicks off on Saturday, with 192 riders across 24 teams aiming to complete 3345.6 kilometres over 21 stages.
The riders face two individual time trials equating to 71.6 kilometres, seven hilly stages, five mountain-top finishes coupled with a tough mountain stage, and six flat stages for the sprinters.
All eyes will be on Slovenian phenomenon Tadej Pogacar as he attempts to win the Giro d’Italia at the first time of asking. The two-time Tour de France winner looks unbeatable in his current form, opening 2024 with a blistering 80k solo win at Strade Bianche, followed by a podium place at Milano-San Remo before winning four stages at Volta Catalunya on his way to overall victory before another dominant win at Liege-Bastonge-Liege.
It’s hard to look past the Slovenian, who should take this with ease, but that's reflected in the odds and he's just 3/10.
INEOS Grenadiers are sending a strong supporting roster in the hope of last year’s runner up, Geraint Thomas, achieving one place better.
Looking after Thomas on the flat and hilly stages will be trusted domestiques Ben Swift, Connor Swift and Time Trial specialist Filippo Ganna. For the mountains he’ll be joined by 2024 Tour of the Alps stage winner Tobias Foss and right-hand man, Thymen Arenseman.
The 2018 Tour de France winner will look to take as much time as he can in the in the two individual time trials, forcing his opponents to work come the mountain stages. With experience on his side, Thomas can play a big part in this Giro d'Italia again although it will take something special to beat Pogacar.
Frenchman Romain Bardet will look to complete a Grand Tour trilogy of stage wins, having landed stages in the Tour de France and Vuelta a Espana already. He arrives at the Giro d’Italia in good form after finishing second behind Pogacar at Liege-Bastonge-Liege and fifth overall at the Tour of the Alps. The accomplished Team dsm-firmenich PostNL rider will be in the mix for the podium spot if not losing too much in the Time Trials.
Decathlon-AG2R rider Ben O’Connor is another rider in the mix for a podium finish. The Australian has looked stronger this year, winning one-day race Vuelta Ciclista a la Region de Murcia and gaining a stage win at UAE Tour, however he was unable to capitalise on this win in the General Classification by losing out to Lennert van Eetvelt which is a concern. A second place followed at the Tour of the Alps, but he might just come up short of the top three.
With Pogacar in a league of his own and Thomas having much more experience than the rest of the field, the battle for the final podium spot is wide open, but as far as value goes we're better of searching the sub-markets.
Pithie in the points
Groupama-FDJ rider LAURENCE PITHIE is having a breakout campaign so far. The 21-year-old New Zealander, dubbed as a sprinter at the start of the year, has quickly demonstrated that he is much more than that.
During the spring classics he showed that he’s not afraid to get amongst the biggest names in cycling in Gent-Wevelgem and Tour of Flanders before rounding the season off with a well-deserved seventh place at Paris-Roubaix.
I fully expect the Groupama-FDJ puncheur to be in the thick of the action for a stage win alongside fighting for the Points Classification jersey. Pithie can make up the points difference with his ability to climb on the hillier and mountain stages, where I anticipate the team may send him up the road to collect points making him good each-way value.
Arensman a star to follow
Last year’s sixth THYMEN ARENSMAN looks set to record another strong performance in the Giro d’Italia.
The INEOS Grenadiers rider will be Geraint Thomas’s right-hand man for the mountains and in this weaker field outside of Pogacar, Arensman should be able to make it count.
With strong previous performances in this race, finishing sixth last year in General Classification and two second place stage finishes during the 2022 renewal, one being a Time Trial, this is set up for him to take the Young Rider Classification.
Thymen’s two main rivals for the jersey, Antonio Tiberi and Cian Uijtdebroeks, are competing in the Giro for the first time and neither rider fully convinces me that they can go as deep as Thymen can in the third week of the race.
It is also a contract year for Arensman so he’ll have a point to prove to his team and potential suitors, making him my favourite for the Young Rider Classification.
Stage set for Storer
Australian climber MICHAEL STORER will be aiming to become Tudor Pro Cycling first ever Grand Tour stage winner.
As a two-time Grand Tour stage winner in La Vuelta a Espana and King of the Mountains winner in the same year, Storer can pick up a stage win in one of the six mountain stages for his Swiss team.
It feels like Storer has had a slow build-up to the Giro, although he’s been in the thick of the action during key mountains stages at UAE Tour, Paris-Nice and Tour of the Alps recording top 10 finishes in all three key stages including a second place at the Tour of the Alps.
With this slow build-up, Storer could go under the radar and sneak away to gain Tudor Pro Cycling their first ever Grand Tour stage victory.
Posted at 1015 BST on 03/05/24
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