MMA betting tips: UFC 265 preview and best bets
Will Dean looks ahead to UFC 265, where Ciryl Gane and Michael Chiesa feature among his staking plan on what's sure to be an enthralling card.
MMA betting tips: UFC 265, Saturday August 7
1pt Ciryl Gane to win by TKO/KO in rounds 3-5 at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
3pts Michael Chiesa to win by submission or decision at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
2pts Johnny Munoz to win by KO or submission at 13/10 (bet365)
1pt Johnny Munoz to win by submission at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
Eyebrows were raised when the UFC announced that Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane would compete in an interim Heavyweight title bout at UFC 265, considering reigning champion Francis Ngannou had captured the gold just five months prior and is currently injury-free.
The facts of the matter remain unknown, but both Lewis and Gane are worthy of title opportunities in their own right, with the former also fighting in his hometown on Saturday night. It would appear that the promotion did not want to lose the opportunity to have Lewis headlining the event, and billing the winner’s subsequent fight with Ngannou as a champion v champion affair would add more flavour to the build-up.
This card contains a real variety of fighters, from exciting up-and-comers to returning veterans. Every scheduled bout seems to have some sort of narrative or caveat attached that adds slightly more anticipation, making the entire event a compelling one to watch in its entirety. Aside from a fascinating main event, the fight between Vicente Luque and Michael Chiesa is certainly noteworthy, as well as the opening bout of the night, where Johnny Munoz takes on Jamey Simmons.
Gane for gold
Derrick Lewis is an enigma. The Houston-born knockout artist’s 16-5 UFC record is one of the most impressive in UFC history when considering his abilities and how one-dimensional he is. The Black Beast is not athletically gifted or technically methodical in a particular area of martial arts, but he possesses absurd knockout power in a single punch and can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in a split second.
The climate of the UFC’s Heavyweight division has been partly responsible for Lewis's success, as its livelihood has depended on fighters who remain over-confident in their capacity to absorb damage and also inflict it. Compare the technique, game-planning and overall abilities of a Heavyweight martial artist to that of a Flyweight (a division where one-punch knockout power is more rare), and they seem decades apart in evolution.
CIRYL GANE is a rare exception to the 265lbs blueprint, which explains why UFC fans marked him as a contender from the moment he debuted for the company. In just three years, the Frenchman has gone from starting his MMA journey to fighting for an interim UFC title, because of his patient and efficient approach. Of course, Gane is a physical specimen with an extensive Muay Thai background, but Bon Gamin fights like he belongs in the lower weight classes; carefully measuring distance, utilising good footwork to stay out of range and, most importantly, being varied in his offensive approach.
Lewis has defied the odds on so many occasions in his UFC career, but it seems Gane’s style is tailor-made to best him. Gane has built his success around respecting the natural power that the Heavyweight division brings, and Lewis may be the most threatening of them all. With a striking defence rate of 63%, Gane is a fighter you can trust to employ patience and hesitancy against a knockout artist, while peppering them with leg kicks and straight shots of his own.
Gane’s stylistic advantages have earned him a steep 2/7 price tag with the bookmakers, so Sky Bet’s Request-A-Bet markets look the place to turn to. GANE TO WIN BY KO/TKO IN ROUNDS 3-5 is a combination that appeals at 5/1, as the Frenchman’s cautious approach has seen four of his five UFC bouts reach the third round. Eventually, he will turn up the pressure on a tired Lewis, who has never fought for 25 minutes in his career.
Maverick to cruise to victory
Since moving up to the Welterweight division, MICHAEL CHIESA has looked phenomenal. A combination of high-level wrestling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is a dangerous one for any grappler to have, and Maverick wields both in abundance. Across his four fights at 170lbs (spanning an hour in total) he has controlled his opponent for 41 minutes, proving that he has the tenacity to pin his opponent to the mat and keep them there.
A controlled approach will be essential against a dangerous opponent like Vicente Luque, as the Brazilian will surely find the finish if this fight stays on the feet for an extended period. That may dissuade some, but the same narrative seems to befit every fight Chiesa has competed in in his UFC career. Things could not be more different for Luque, who has been given exciting matchups against fellow wild strikers in an attempt to capitalise on his fan-friendly style. The Brazilian has been involved in some classics over the years, but there are valid questions about how he will deal with a grappler like Maverick’s approach for the first time in half a decade.
Stylistically, Chiesa will have a few blessings on his side in the standup, namely due to his southpaw stance. Luque’s debilitating calf kicks are vital in slowing down his opponents and creating a stationary target, but they will not have quite the desired effect against the opposite lead leg. Coupling this with the fact Luque will have to therefore come barrelling forward to catch his defensive opponent, a well-timed takedown can turn The Silent Assassin’s momentum against him.
Considering how good Chiesa has looked in recent fights, I am surprised to see Luque as the favourite on Saturday night - another instance in which he appears underrated, as he has in his last two fights. If Chiesa is able to successfully implement his wrestling, then Luque’s fight ending potential will be largely diminished. The Brazilian has a great chin, and Maverick’s dominance on top is aided by his hesitancy to throw strikes, so backing CHIESA TO WIN BY SUBMISSION OR DECISION seems like a solid bet at 6/5.
Mighty Munoz
The opening bout of the night features two fighters looking to rebound from losses, as Johnny Munoz Jr faces Jamey Simmons. Munoz certainly had the better showing in his debut, losing a very close decision that could have gone either way, while Simmons was knocked out in under four minutes by Giga Chikadze in his introduction to UFC fans.
Credit where it's due, Simmons made his appearance on short notice and acted as somewhat of a sacrificial lamb to a legitimate prospect, but the UFC knew exactly what they were doing when they signed him. The Afro Samurai’s performances on the regional scene did little to convince anyone that he was ready to compete on the sport’s biggest stage, and a rib injury in March will have impeded any potential progress in between these bouts.
If Simmons resembles the same fighter on Saturday night, then Munoz should have him covered in all areas. Kid Kvenbo’s striking appears to be coming together nicely, but his grappling is on another level. Once he gets fights to the floor, he is aggressive in advancing position and always looks to be setting up a finishing sequence, whether by strikes or submission.
Simmons’ style seems to rely on his wrestling credentials, but dragging the fight to the mat would bring him into Munoz’s world. The latter is a BJJ black belt and has some impressive submissions and sweeps off his back, so it seems Simmons would simply be out of his depth if he chose to grapple.
All three of Simmons’ professional losses have come inside the distance, and Munoz has finished his opponent in eight of his ten wins. Six of these have come by submission, but Kid Kvenbo is more than happy to land heavy strikes on the ground once he establishes position. Splitting the stake across both MUNOZ TO WIN BY KO OR SUBMISSION at 13/10, as well as MUNOZ TO WIN BY SUBMISSION at 5/2, seems the best way to capitalise on what could be a mismatch.
Posted at 1700 BST on 06/08/21
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