Cycling betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Tour de France 2026

Cycling betting tips: Tour de France

2pts Isaac Del Toro to win Young Rider’s Classification at 2/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts Jasper Philipsen to win Points Classification at 2/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

1.5pts Tom Pidcock to win a stage at evens (Sky Bet)

1.5pts Ben Healy to win a stage at evens (Sky Bet)

1pt Richard Carapaz to win King of The Mountains at 4/1 (Betway, William Hill)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

The 2026 Tour de France looks set to be one of the most demanding and tactically intriguing editions in recent years, with a combination of route design, rule changes and the sheer depth of talent involved ensuring there should be little room for error across the three weeks.

One of the major talking points ahead of the race is the introduction of the new team time trial rules for Stage 1 that will see every rider receive their own individual time for the general classification. That opens the door for teams to force a fierce tempo for as long as possible before allowing their strongest riders, particularly those with yellow jersey ambitions, to go all out on the finishing climb to Montjuïc. The expectation is more aggressive racing and could create meaningful gaps between the leading contenders before the race has even reached the mountains.

The route itself then appears designed to ask questions throughout. An early trip to the Pyrenees means the contenders will be tested long before the race has a chance to properly settle, while the inclusion of the Galibier, Alpe d’Huez and Tourmalet in the same edition for only the eighth time in the race’s storied history another layer of difficulty to an already gruelling route.

With climbing opportunities spread throughout the race and recovery stages at a premium, getting the balance right between aggression and energy conservation will be a fine line to tread, particularly as the race enters its decisive third week. Stages 19 and 20 both finish atop Alpe d’Huez, with Stage 19 likely to favour the more explosive climbers, whilst Stage 20 shapes as a brutal test of endurance and altitude that could prove decisive after three weeks of racing. These are the sort of stages where legends are made and legacies cemented, and they should ensure this year’s renewal builds towards an epic conclusion.

Defending champion hard to beat

The odds-on favourite for overall victory is Tadej Pogačar, already firmly entrenched among cycling’s all-time greats, and he lines up a thoroughly deserving market leader on the back of yet another remarkable campaign that has somehow seen him raise the bar once more. Victory in the Tour de Suisse should have put him spot on for his bid to claim a fifth Tour de France and his third in succession.

As ever, his chief threat is the only man to have interrupted his dominance in this race, Jonas Vingegaard, winner in both 2022 and 2023 and runner-up to Pogačar in each of the last two renewals. The Dane arrives fresh from a stunning Giro d’Italia success that saw him become the first of the pair to complete the full set of Grand Tour victories. He arrives with team full of top-tier support, though a recent injury to Wout Van Aert robs him of a truly elite and important lieutenant.

What are the best bets?

The hugely talented Remco Evenepoel, the new hope of French cycling Paul Seixas, and recent Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes winner ISAAC DEL TORO headline one of the most decorated line-ups in recent history. But in all honesty, it will take something seismic to happen to the first two in the betting for any of them to arrive in Paris wearing yellow.

That said, there are other jerseys to fight for, and both Seixas and Del Toro will surely have the Young Rider classification firmly on their radar.

Outside of the dominant duo, there may not be a rider in the peloton carrying as much expectation on his shoulders as Paul Seixas. As a Frenchman representing a French-owned team, he holds the hearts of a nation in his hands, and the hype is justified. His runner-up finishes at Strade Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, along with victories at the Ardèche Classic and La Flèche Wallonne this year, underline his immense talent.

However, he was a little disappointing behind Del Toro at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and for all his innate potential, he has yet to prove himself over the course of a three-week race.

The same cannot be said of Del Toro, who was a revelation at last year’s Giro d’Italia, a race that slipped through his fingers only at the very end. He has continued to progress this year and, though it is worth noting that he will have to play a secondary role to Pogačar at times, the disparity between him and Seixas in the betting looks too wide.

The points classification has also seen a change this year, with the rules adjusted to favour pure sprinters. That plays very much into the hands of JASPER PHILIPSEN, a 10-time stage winner at the race and the current market leader for the Green Jersey.

Competition will be fierce, with Tim Merlier, Olav Kooij, Mads Pedersen and Biniam Girmay all having the pedigree to challenge for this year’s title. However, what sets Philipsen apart from most is that he will line up with a proper sprint train, one that arguably includes the best lead-out man in the business in Mathieu van der Poel.

The only other sprinter likely to have a near-full team at his disposal is 2024 Green jersey winner, Biniam Girmay. While the others are elite riders, most notably the lightning-fast Tim Merlier, the overall structure driving Philipsen towards sprint success is likely to prove too much for his rivals. He rates a worthy favourite.

The King of the Mountains classification is always fraught with danger for punters, with the threat of GC contenders, particularly Pogačar and Vingegaard, mopping up enough points as a byproduct of their personal battle going right to the wire. There is also the added threat of riders originally targeting a top-five or top-10 finish changing their goals halfway through the race, hanging over the competition like the sword of Damocles.

Carapaz can be King of the Mountains

That said, for all their dominance of this race in recent times, current short-priced favourite for this classification Pogačar and his great Danish rival have only managed to wear the polka-dot jersey alongside the maillot jaune in Paris once between them. That means there is still some value in siding with those openly targeting the KOM jersey, and the duo of most interest in that regard are RICHARD CARAPAZ and Lenny Martinez.

Carapaz is a past Grand Tour winner, won this jersey in 2024, and perhaps more pertinently, has publicly stated that he will be targeting this competition. As a proven GC rider and breakaway specialist who tends to get stronger as the race goes on, often peaking in the final week, the Ecuadorian is sure to aggressively chase mountain points long into the tour.

The young Frenchman Martinez is a pure climber, was third in this classification in 2025 and looks sure to make a bold bid if granted the same freedom as Carapaz, though with his team also harbouring top-10 GC aspirations, this may not always be the case.

British and Irish interest in the jersey competitions is likely to be fleeting, but with both Tom Pidcock and Ben Healy lining up then stage a stage win should be firmly on the agenda.

Few riders have the natural talent of TOM PIDCOCK, who remains the headline act of British cycling and, after his breakout Grand Tour podium when finishing third at the 2025 Vuelta, can now be considered a genuine top-10 threat should that be his aim. However, aggressive stage hunting, especially on hilly or technical mountain days and descents, is where he truly excels, as emphasised by his spectacular solo victory on Alpe d’Huez in 2022. This year’s route is sure to provide him with several opportunities to add to that success.

BEN HEALY's attacking instincts and climbing ability make him a threat in mountain stage breakaways and, with his teammate Carapaz focusing on the KOM competition, he should be given the freedom to contest stage wins and light up the race on tough days in the Massif Central, Jura or Alps, much as he did in last year’s race, when he won a stage, wore the yellow jersey for several days and took home the overall combativity award.

In summary, the GC once again looks a shootout between the pair at the head of the betting. While it could be argued that Vingegaard represents a bit of value given the disparity between the pair in the market, it is away from the main classification that the most appealing betting opportunities present themselves. With that in mind, the best angles appear to come in the points, young rider and mountains classifications, as well as the stage-win markets.

Posted at 15:05 BST on 02/07/26

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