Will Dean has three selections for Saturday's UFC Vegas 33 card, where Bryan Barberena gets the vote to end his fight early.
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 33, Saturday July 31
3pts Bryan Barberena to win inside the distance at 21/20 (Betway)
1pt Bryan Barberena to win by KO at 6/4 (Betway)
2pts Kang v Yahya to go to decision at 9/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
UFC Vegas 33 features an intriguing battle of volume against power in the Middleweight division, with the surging Sean Strickland testing his unique boxing style against the ever-explosive knockout artist in Uriah Hall. The latter has always been viewed as a fighter with raw potential, but many question if the mental aspect of fighting holds him back. Strickland is exactly the opposite as a hard-nosed striker who refuses to take a backwards step, sometimes verbally taunting his opponents inside the cage as he lands strikes at will.
While Strickland is a worthy favourite with occasional glimpses of finishing ability, Hall can end the fight in an instant. With so much at stake for both fighters and plenty of unpredictability, I have looked towards two other fights on the main card for betting opportunities. Bryan Barberena kicks things off against Jason Witt, and Kyung Ho Kang later grapples with prolific submission artist Rani Yahya.
Barbarena to land killer blow
BRYAN BARBERENA's return to competition is a welcome sight, after life-threatening internal complications forced him to undergo emergency surgery last November. Bam Bam remains one the most exciting fighters to watch in the Middleweight division, with his 2019 war with Vicente Luque still regarded as one of the most thrilling UFC fights of all time. The American has 10 knockouts from 15 career wins, so fans know exactly what to expect from him: heavy hands and a never-ending pursuit of a finish.
Saturday night’s opponent, Jason Witt, has had many ups and downs in his MMA career, with an 18-7 record plagued with knockout losses. After plying his trade on the regional scene for seven years, The Vanilla Gorilla’s UFC journey started in the worst way possible, being knocked out in under a minute. He bounced back with a decent, wrestling-heavy win in his second fight, but was stopped with strikes again in just 16 seconds in his third.
With such durability issues, Witt will need to get his opponent to the mat like his UFC career depends on it. Barberena’s takedown defence rate currently sits at a reasonable 60%, but Bam Bam’s ability to get back to his feet is one of his most underrated assets. Rewatching his fights against current title contenders Leon Edwards and Colby Covington, as well as his most recent bout against Anthony Ivy, Barberena was taken down on three, 12 and five occasions respectively, but got back to his feet within seconds on almost every occasion, proving that a fighter needs more than just grappling to best him.
Witt is a decent wrestler in his own right, but I would be surprised if he had the abilities necessary to do what the other three men could not. If The Vanilla Gorilla is forced to fight on the feet for extended periods, I do not like his chances of staying conscious. Barberena has played the role of the executioner at numerous points in his career against older fighters with durability issues, and Witt could very well be his next victim.
Of course, there is always the chance of an opportunistic submission once Bam Bam has his opponent hurt, so backing BARBERENA TO WIN INSIDE THE DISTANCE at 21/20 seems the sensible option to cover both stoppage outcomes. For added value, a smaller wager on a KNOCKOUT WIN at 6/4 would maximise the potential profit.
Grappling stalemate
Later on the main card, Rani Yahya and Kyung Ho Kang will compete in a contest of high-level grapplers at 135lbs. With 21 and 11 respective submission wins on their records, both have survived in the UFC without significant striking abilities, instead utilising takedowns and ending fights via tap out on the floor.
It seems that once Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grapplers reach the highest levels of the sport, the idea of catching them in a submission seems unfathomable. Time and time again when we see two fighters of such BJJ calibre face off, neither really comes away looking the more dominant in their discipline, and it is the striking and wrestling skill sets that actually make the difference. In Saturday night’s co-main event, this should also be the case.
Each has suffered just one career loss by submission, highlighting that their grappling defence is as good as their offence. Furthermore, Kang has finished just two of his 17 professional wins by knockout, and Yahya has yet to win via strikes, despite getting his hand raised on 27 occasions. Neither man has ever viewed their striking as more than a formality inside the Octagon, so a knockout victory for either seems highly unlikely.
I am backing their complete grappling skillsets to cancel each other out, and for this FIGHT TO GO TO A DECISION. In similar stylistic matchups, some fighters even opt to avoid taking the fight to the mat, removing their opponent’s greatest strength and taking their chances on plan B. However this fight plays out, I think the chances of the judges deciding the winner is much more likely than the odds available.
Posted at 1100 BST on 30/07/21
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