In a season that looked unlikely from the start, the Super Bowl is finally here! Matt Temple-Marsh has been finding value touchdown scorers all season long, and has four more value selections ahead of the big dance that you need to keep an eye on.
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The Bucs need to stop Tyreek Hill. When these teams met in Week 12, Hill put up video game numbers – 13 receptions, 269 yards and three touchdowns. Their priority will be doubling Tyreek, in an attempt to stop the embarrassment again. With Hill set to see frequent double teams, Hardman will see open looks, and let’s not forget he’s arguably just as fast as Tyreek.
Hardman is a threat in the passing game (fresh off a touchdown last week), the rushing game (check out his 50-yard rush against the Bills) and on specials teams. In the NFC Championship game, the Bucs’ secondary was roasted by Marquez Valdes-Scantling, so just imagine what Hardman’s speed will do against their DBs. This is a plus matchup & great situation for Hardman, expect him to find the end zone.
Mahomes is truly a generational talent, his arm may be the best the NFL, but he also wields under-the-radar athleticism. He has three rushing touchdowns in his last four playoff games, including his crucial rushing TD in last year’s Super Bowl.
This Bucs’ defence is the best in the league at silencing running backs – they were the only team in the league to not allow over 1,000 rushing yards during the regular season. Tampa will be able to keep Edwards-Helaire & Williams in check, and Mahomes will take the game into his own hands by scrambling to move the chains.
We saw Taylor Heinicke score a rushing TD against this Bucs defence, showing they can be beaten. This defence is used to facing pocket QBs – during the regular season QBs attempted just 51 rushes, the third fewest in the league. Expect Mahomes to produce again, against a defence that isn’t prepared to stop rushing QBs.
This is a tight end matchup for the ages. Kelce is fresh off one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen from a TE, and Gronk may go down as the best to ever suit up at the position. The Mahomes/Kelce connection is arguably the most dangerous in football, with Kelce almost guaranteed to get 10+ targets at least – there’s a reason he’s the odds-on favourite to score a touchdown.
We may not have seen the stat lines we’d expect from Gronk, but you can guarantee he’s been waiting for this game. Whatever Gronk has left in the tank will be for the Super Bowl, and it’s actually a plus matchup for both TEs – both Tampa & Kansas rank as the fifth-worst defence in the league to tight ends, and we’ve seen an abundance of targets go to the position throughout the playoffs.
Cameron Brate is struggling with a back injury and may not be at full fitness come Sunday, so expect more targets coming Gronk’s way. Both players are in a plus matchup, and we can expect a classic tight end duel come Sunday.
The Kansas City Chiefs will be without three of their starting five offensive linemen, including both of their star tackles, Mitchell Schwartz & Eric Fisher. The Buccaneers boast one of the most menacing front seven’s in football, and Shaq Barett & Jason Pierre-Paul are fresh off monster games (they combined for five sacks against the Packers).
Throughout the last five games Mahomes has thrown four interceptions and dropped three fumbles – he hasn’t been nearly as secure as you’d expect the reigning Super Bowl MVP to be. The Bucs defence has forced seven defensive turnovers throughout the playoffs this season (including an interception in every game), and they will feast against this weakened offensive line unit. Their defence represents good value to go for six.
Odds correct at 1730 GMT (05/02/21)
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.