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Thanksgiving Day NFL tips: Thursday Night Football best bets, predictions, picks and preview
NFL betting tips: Thursday Night Football
1pt Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ touchdowns in Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jahmyr Gibbs over 75 rushing yards in Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions at 9/2 (bet365)
1pt CeeDee Lamb 100+ receiving yards & to score a touchdown in Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders at 10/3 (bet365)
2pts San Francisco 49ers to beat Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:20 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Spread: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at 10/11
- Total: Over 43.5 at 10/11
Going into this game, the health of two of Seattle’s most important offensive players is in question. Geno Smith suffered an elbow injury on his throwing arm that saw him exit the game for three drives – Smith himself said “we’ll see how it goes” on if he’ll play on Thursday, while coach Pete Carroll said “I don’t have any idea if he’ll play” – which will have a major impact on the competitiveness of this contest. Running back Kenneth Walker also left the game in the first quarter with an oblique injury and will likely miss Thursday’s game.
In Smith’s absence, Drew Lock came in for relief. The backup went 2/6 for 3 yards, with an interception. Facing the 49ers will be an immense challenge for Lock on a short week – since their Bye week the 49ers defence has accumulated nine sacks, three fumbles and three interceptions (in two games). This unit is playing as good as any team in the NFL, even with Geno Smith at QB the 49ers will be able to stifle their offence. The 49ers have beaten the Seahawks in the last three duels between these NFC West sides – with an aggregate score of 89-43. In those three games Smith was sacked eight times and threw two interceptions.
Brock Purdy is quite literally perfect at the moment – with a 158.3 passer rating last time out. The 49ers are at their very best and this should be business as usual against a banged-up Seahawks team. Six of the 49ers’ seven wins have been by 10+ points and they boast a +122 points differential on the season. Back them to dominate again on Thanksgiving.
Prediction: 49ers 31-14 Seahawks
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
- Kick-off time: Thursday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Spread: Detroit Lions (-7.5) at 10/11
- Total: Over 47.5 at 10/11
After an impressive come from behind victory, the Detroit Lions are 8-2 and in firm control of the NFC North. They now face the Green Bay Packers, who rose to 4-6 after beating the up-and-down Los Angeles Chargers. These teams met back in Week 4, where the Lions dominated the Packers 34-20. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit are 4-1 against the Packers, and they now come into this game favoured by more than a touchdown – it’s been some turn around by Detroit under Campbell.
The Lions rank as the sixth best offence in the league with 27.2 points scored per game, while their defence is conceding 313 yards per game, ranking as the ninth best. For Green Bay, they rank as the 21st offence & their defence is conceding the 17th most yards per game – this is going to be a mismatch on Thursday, particularly when focussing on the ground game.
Green Bay have allowed the seventh most rushing yards in the NFL this season with 1,347 total yards, while Detroit have the sixth best rushing attack – with 1,366 rushing yards. When these teams met back in Week 4, David Montgomery ran wild – for 121 yards and three touchdowns.
While Montgomery is still a big threat, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is starting to lead the way. Gibbs has five touchdowns in his last four games, with eleven red zone touches in that span – to start the season Montgomery was the goal line back, yet over the past four games he’s seen just seven touches in the RZ. Expect a monster game from the rookie, and I’d target a brace and the overs on his rushing line.
While Jordan Love has started to gradually pick up his game, the Lions are too dominant, and this should be business as usual for Dan Campbell’s men. They will lean heavily into the ground attack and grind out this win.
Prediction: Lions 31-17 Packers
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
- Kick-off time: Thursday, 21:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at 10/11
- Total: Over 48.5 at 10/11
The Washington Commanders have conceded more yards this season than any other team in the NFL. They are one of the most confusing teams in the league, being able to put up points at will one week, then losing to the Tommy DeVito Giants the week after. They now face the Dallas Cowboys, who are coming off a two-game streak of beating up on bad teams, and this should make it three in a row.
We saw them trounce the Giants 49-17, and then followed this up with a 33-10 win over the Panthers. Their defence over those two games racked up 12 sacks, one forced fumble, two interceptions and one touchdown. This could be a long game for Sam Howell, who has thrown six picks in his last five games – with three of those coming last time out – alongside taking 17 sacks.
One particular player to watch is CeeDee Lamb, who has been flying. Over the past four games he has 40 catches, 538 yards and five touchdowns. This matchup against the Commanders is as easy as it comes – they have conceded more yards and touchdowns to WRs than any other team in the league. In Lamb’s last two games against Washington, he has 11 catches, 149 yards and two touchdowns. Expect more of the same come Thanksgiving, as the Cowboys beat up on Washington.
Prediction: Cowboys 34-17 Commanders
Preview posted at 1120 GMT on 22/11/23
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