NFL betting tips: Thursday Night Football
3pts DeAndre Hopkins - Over 50.5 receiving yards at 5/6 (bet365, Sky Bet)
3pts Jaylen Warren - Over 18.5 receiving yards at 10/11 (bet365)
2pts Derrick Henry - Over 72.5 rushing yards at 10/11 (bet365)
1pt Titans to win at 7/5 (General)
1pt DeAndre Hopkins 75+ receiving yards at 13/5 (bet365)
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Titans +2.5 at 21/20
- Total: Over 36.5 at 10/11
Week 8 kicks off with the Tennessee Titans travelling to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers, in a game where we may see two back-up quarterbacks.
Will Levis came in for the injured Ryan Tannehill & disappointing Malik Willis last Sunday, to the tune of four touchdowns in one of the best rookie quarterback debuts ever.
The offence was clicking as they dismantled a strong Atlanta defence 28-23 – and Levis is set to take the reigns once more against the Steelers – where another strong performance may see him keep the starting job.
Pittsburgh suffered a 20-10 loss against the Jaguars, in a game where Kenny Pickett had to exit due to a rib injury. There had been calls for backup Mitchell Trubisky to come in due to Pickett’s performances, yet Trubisky didn’t fare much better – throwing two interceptions in the loss.
Quite the debut for @will_levis 🔥 pic.twitter.com/b51pbIzcKC
— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2023
This is a tough spot for Levis to come into on a short week – but the Titans moneyline appeals.
Pittsburgh’s offence has been more than a tough watch – averaging 16 points per game – 30th in the NFL. The Titans defence ranks second in red zone efficiency, only allowing a touchdown on 34.6% of opponent trips.
Their secondary has only conceded seven passing touchdowns this season – and the defence is allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.
Pickett has told his teammates he’ll play on Thursday, so we’ll be seeing a player at less than 100% (as he plays through his rib injury) – which shapes up to be a recipe for disaster.
Levis has injected some much-needed juice into this offence, and veterans Derrick Henry & DeAndre Hopkins will be at the front of their attack. Things are starting to click for the Titans – this is a great spot for them to impress in primetime.
Derrick Henry Top Plays of the 2022 Season 👑
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) January 24, 2023
Vote @KingHenry_2 for @FedEx Ground Player of the Year 📨: https://t.co/KjdWOE2s8o pic.twitter.com/VbO7VXvV5o
Speaking of Derrick Henry – we can expect him to clear his rushing line, set at 72.5.
Henry has cleared that number in three out of his last four games, and faces a weak Steelers run defence.
They sit 24th in yards allowed per rush attempt and have only held one team to under 100 rushing yards this season. Travis Etienne racked up 79 yards last week – and with Levis coming in off a short week, we can expect their offence to run through Henry to help the rookie settle in.
For Pittsburgh, Jaylen Warren’s receiving line is worth paying attention to – he’s cleared the 18.5-yard mark in all but two games this season.
The Titans are stout against the run, but they have shown weakness through the air. They rank 25th in pass defence DVOA & 16th in pass defence DVOA to running backs.
Specifically, they are 31st in DVOA on short passes – where Warren will see his targets – and rank 27th in completion percentage allowed. Warren has had 4+ targets in all but two games this season, we can expect more volume in a plus spot for the running back.
Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is starting to show up – last week he caught four of his six targets (the most on the team) for 128 yards and three touchdowns, and two weeks before that he had an 8 catch 140-yard performance.
His line is set at a very low 50.5 yards for Thursday, I’d be looking more towards 75+ yards at 13/5 – even 100+ at 7/1.
The Steelers have allowed the 8th most yards in the league to wide receivers – that’s even with them playing a whole game less than other teams thanks to their bye.
They have allowed a 100-yard receiver in 4/7 games this season and conceded nearly 300 yards last week to Trevor Lawrence.
Score prediction: Titans 24-17 Steelers
Preview posted at 2225 BST on 31/10/23
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