Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best player prop bets for the Super Bowl, as the Pats and the Seahawks go head-to-head.
Super Bowl betting tips: Player props
1pt Drake Maye 218.5+ passing yards & Sam Darnold 229.5+ passing yards at 2/1 (bet365)
1pt Rashid Shaheed 19.5+ receiving yards, Hunter Henry 38.5+ receiving yards & George Holani 9.5+ receiving yards at 11/2 (bet365)
1pt Rhamondre Stevenson 50.5+ rushing yards & TreVeyon Henderson under 18.5 rushing yards at 12/5 (bet365)
1pt Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker & Hunter Henry all to score touchdowns at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots
Drake Maye 218.5+ passing yards & Sam Darnold 229.5+ passing yards
Throughout the regular season Maye averaged 258.4 passing yards per game – don’t let a snowstorm cloud your judgement. He’s played at an MVP level all year long and the Seahawks defence has allowed big games recently, with 374 and 457 yard games to Stafford plus 277 to Brock Purdy.
For Darnold, we saw just how good he can be last time out with 346 yards against a very good Rams defence. The Pats’ recent passing metrics may look strong, but they have often played in poor weather against a below par quarterback lineup including Jarret Stidham, Brady Cook and Quinn Ewers. Their rush defence has been a huge strength, and their plan will be to force Sam Darnold into passing situations – so we can expect more volume from the Seattle QB.
Rashid Shaheed 19.5+ receiving yards
Shaheed has been a revelation for Seattle since the trade – but primarily in special teams. This matchup presents a great opportunity for him to see success in the passing attack. Since the trade Shaheed has faced only zone-heavy defences, whereas his speed is much more suited to shredding man coverage. The Patriots have the sixth-highest man coverage usage rate in the NFL and allow over 40 yards per game to WR3s.
Hunter Henry 38.5+ receiving yards
The Seattle front is fantastic at generating pressure – and with the way that the Patriots offensive line has been playing as of late, this could spell danger for Maye. Henry is his pressure release in short yardage situations, while also thriving against zone coverage, which Seattle runs at the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Seahawks have given up the fifth most targets and receptions to tight ends and rank sixth in yards after catch allowed. Watch out for Henry.
George Holani 9.5+ receiving yards
With Charbonnet out, Holani stepped up as the RB2 against the Rams and drew four targets for three receptions and 27 yards in the NFC title game. We’ve seen all season long how Seattle like to rotate their backs – Holani has now got two weeks to acclimate himself to the starting offence and claim a bigger role as the third down back. New England has allowed the seventh-most targets and fifth-most receptions to RBs this season.
Rhamondre Stevenson 50.5+ rushing yards & TreVeyon Henderson under 18.5 rushing yards
The Patriots RB has cleared this line in every playoff game thus far, in matchups against three elite defences (the Chargers, Texans, Broncos). He’s asserted himself as the clear RB1, claiming a 90% load last time out and leaving very little for promising rookie Henderson, who has struggled in pass protection, hence the lack of usage.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker & Hunter Henry to all score a touchdown
JSN has delivered in the playoffs with a touchdown in both games, alongside a monster 153-yard game against the Rams last time out. The Patriots have conceded 19 TDs through the season to WRs – the fifth most in the NFL.
Walker has scored four touchdowns in his last two games and sets the pace for Seattle. We can expect to see plenty of him in this game and while their rush defence looks strong against opposing RBs, their schedule sweetens the pot. In December the Pats faced the Bills and Ravens in back-to-back weeks, where they conceded a 107-yard, two-touchdown game to James Cook and then a 128-yard, two-touchdown game to Derrick Henry. Walker is absolutely playing to the level of those two great running backs.
Henry is in a good spot as aforementioned by facing the Seahawks defence who have surrendered the fifth most receptions to tight ends. Henry has seen 22 red zone targets this season – the sixth most in the NFL.
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When is the Super Bowl?
Super Bowl XL takes place on Sunday February 8, and is scheduled to begin at 23:30 GMT.
It takes place at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
How can I watch the Super Bowl?
UK viewers can tune into Channel 5, where Dermot O'Leary and Sam Quek are hosting live coverage from 22:30 GMT.
Sky Sports also have coverage via their Main Event and NFL channels and NOW TV, while DAZN are broadcasting the Super Bowl with their NFL Game Pass.
Who is performing the Super Bowl opening show?
Green Day are performing at a special anniversary ceremony before Charlie Puth sings the national anthem.
Who is performing the half-time show?
Bad Bunny is this year's half-time act, the Puerto Rican rapper scheduled to perform at around 13:00 GMT.
Posted at 13:00 GMT on 05/02/26
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