Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best bets for the NFC Championship game, with the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the San Francisco 49ers.
NFL betting tips: AFC Championship
2.5pts Haason Reddick 1+ sack at 8/13 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer at 5/4 (General)
1pt Philadelphia Eagles HT/San Francisco 49ers FT at 8/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
When: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
TV: Sky Sports NFL
Brock Purdy may be the greatest story the NFL has ever seen.
The rookie quarterback was the final pick of the 2022 draft – as he formerly became the latest Mr. Irrelevant.
As the title may suggest, the final pick of the draft has never amounted to much – Purdy’s first ever pass was the first time that a “Mr. Irrelevant” had completed a forward pass in the NFL!
But Purdy has done so much more than that – the Iowa State QB came in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo (who came in for the injured Trey Lance) and he hasn’t missed a beat – in fact the 49ers offence has become even better, with their points scored per game increasing from 24ppg to 31ppg.
The 49ers are 8-0 since Purdy took over, and here’s a look at his stats:
- 66.0 QBR (5th in the league)
- 68.3% completion percentage (5th)
- 218 passing yards per game (12th)
- 8.12 yards per attempt (2nd)
- 13 touchdown passes (Joint 1st)
- 3 interceptions (tied for 4th fewest)
And obviously in a large part, it’s thanks to his supporting cast. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and of course Kyle Shanahan scheming up the plays.
But make no mistake, Purdy has been brilliant – he’s calm under pressure and incredibly efficient, but his hardest task yet awaits, the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles lead the NFL in sacks, have allowed the fewest passing yards/game (179) and concede just 20 points/game.
Their offence is just as good too – with Jalen Hurts putting together an MVP worthy season. Philadelphia score 28.1 points per game (3rd most in the NFL) – but they too have a mountain to climb: the 49ers defence.
This is quite literally the best two defences in the NFL squaring off – which is why the under 46.5 points appeals to me at 10/11. These are two of the highest frequency rushing teams in the league – and that will only chip away at the clock.
Speaking of rushing, we have Jalen Hurts - possibly the best dual-threat QB in the league – with 14 rushing TDs this season.
The Eagles RPO (run-pass option) approach has been tremendous, but the 9ers rush defence is just as good – they haven’t allowed an individual 70+ yard rusher this season. HURTS TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN does stand out to me.
The 9ers allowed big rushing games to QBs Marcus Mariota & Justin Fields – and the last time these two sides played Hurts managed 82 yards & a score.
Adding to the under 46.5 points, Purdy’s last two games saw very slow starts – the 9ers trailed to the Seahawks at half in the wild card round and were lucky to lead the Cowboys at the break – with just 9 points scored.
This also plays into the DOUBLE RESULT – with the Eagles leading at half. Philly have scored the most first half points in the NFL (18/game) and have led at half in 14 games this season. But I believe San Francisco can turn it round, all thanks to Kyle Shanahan.
Whilst these are two great defences – Philadelphia’s run defence is the weakest unit by some way across both teams (121.6 rushing yards conceded/game compared to 49ers 77.7).
This game comes down to Kyle Shanahan vs Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon.
Shanahan is the best play caller in the NFL, and to dodge the Eagle’s vaunted defensive line we can expect a flurry of rushes, quick passes, screens and more – to fire up the YAC monsters.
The 9ers create confusion using pre-snap motion at the highest rate in the NFL. But it’s the commitment to the run from their skill players that sets them apart – Kyle Juszczyk, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and more – the willingness to block sets the team apart.
And of course, CMC is going to be crucial, (whilst he was a DNP at practice, he has confirmed he will suit up on Sunday).
The RB has been the best offensive player in the league since joining San Francisco – and has 9 touchdowns in his last 8 games. The Eagles have allowed 15 TDs to running backs on the year, and McCaffrey is going to be pivotal in leading the 49ers attack.
Whilst I expect the 9ers to get rid of the ball quickly, a bet I do like is HAASON REDDICK 1+ SACK, as he takes advantage of a mismatch against right tackle Mike McGlinchey.
The former first round pick has been the weakest link of the offensive line – McGlinchey ranks as the 34th best tackle in the league according to PFF.
Plus, we saw Micah Parsons embarrass McGlinchey last time out, as he tossed him aside with ease. Reddick is arguably the best free agency signing of the season – and only trails Nick Bosa in sacks – this is a matchup to watch.
This is going to be a dogged, bruising game, with brilliant defence on both sides. The 49ers rush attack will come out on top, as Purdy continues the greatest story in the NFL and advances to the Super Bowl.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles best bets
- 2.5pts Haason Reddick 1+ sack at 8/13 (Sky Bet)
- 1.5pts Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer at 5/4 (General)
- 1pt Philadelphia Eagles HT/San Francisco 49ers FT at 8/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Odds correct at 1415 GMT (28/01/23)
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