NFL season previews: AFC East betting preview with predictions, preview and best bets
As the NFL season approaches we look at the fortunes of the teams in the AFC East as the Bills, Dolphins & Jets continue to chase the New England Patriots.
Predicted AFC East finish:
- New England Patriots
- Miami Dolphins
- Buffalo Bills
- New York Jets
Exact finishing order is 5/1 with Sky Bet
Best Backed: Miami Dolphins (65% of stakes)
New England Patriots
Last season: 13-3
Coach: Bill Belichick
Super Bowl odds: 4/1 | Division odds: 1/8
It’s a copy-and-paste job from last season but it seems only Father Time can stop the Patriots from taking the division again. Tom Brady is 41 but shows no signs of slowing down and, once again, the combination of him and coach Bill Belichick will help to paper over any other cracks in the team.
Eight Super Bowls together, with five wins, since the turn of the century is a remarkable achievement and Brady, if anything, has looked better than ever when getting to the big game three of the last four years.
They’ve had their usual turnover at receiver and running back but that rarely matters. The loss of defensive coordinator Matt Patricia may prove problematic as he’s not been officially replaced, but they’ve beefed up pass rush with Adrian Claybourn.
Miami Dolphins
Last season: 6-10
Coach: Adam Gase
Super Bowl odds: 100/1 | Division odds: 16/1
The only team to stop the Patriots winning the division in the last 15 years, they’re the best backed team in the division with punters taking a punt on them benefitting from the return of quarterback Ryan Tannehill – or Tannehill 2.0 as he’s called himself.
Who knows how Tannehill will perform, he’s certainly an upgrade on Jay Cutler, but he’ll be without star wideout Jarvis Landry, who’s been replaced with Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson – while rookie tight end Mike Gesicki could see a lot of throws coming his way.
It’s Gase’s third year at the helm so it’s time for him to make an impact on this division. He’ll do it without Ndamukong Suh but Robert Quinn will form a fearsome edge rushing partnership with Cam Wake.
Buffalo Bills
Last season: 9-7
Coach: Sean McDermott
Super Bowl odds: 100/1 | Division odds: 12/1
The Bills ended their 18-year play-off drought last year, basically on the back of beating the Miami Dolphins twice in the last three weeks of the season, but it ended in disappointing fashion in a drab 10-3 loss at Jacksonville.
They have a real quandary at QB about whether to throw rookie Josh Allen, drafted seventh overall, straight into the action or risk second-year man Nathan Peterman, who largely had a stinker last season. AJ McCarron may have been the safe option to start the season but he’s struggling with a shoulder injury.
Despite the new faces, the formula for the Bills will be the same as last year. They made the play-offs through solid defence, playmaker LeSean McCoy, and a stroke of luck in the final game – it’ll take all three of those ingredients again to get them back into the post-season.
New York Jets
Last season: 5-11
Coach: Todd Bowles
Super Bowl odds: 200/1 | Division odds: 12/1
The Jets used the third overall pick at the draft for QB Sam Darnold as their man for the future, but he may not be the man for right now as they’re actually doing well under centre – Josh McCown is a better-than-you-thought starter and Teddy Bridgewater is a top-half QB if he can find his best after injury.
For whoever ends up throwing the ball there’s the sneaky-good Robby Anderson at receiver, who scored seven TDs and had three 100-yard games last season – more consistency from him could result in a big year. Plus they’ve added Terrelle Pryor and Jermaine Kearse who have both shown glimpses of talent in their careers – this receiving unit could surprise a few this season.
A young-ish defence will need to step up a bit from last year, while adding Isaiah Crowell and Thomas Rawls to Bilal Powell at running back hardly inspires. There’s talent here and there may be the green shoots of recovery in sight but it may take another year or so yet.
Verdict:
The Patriots have won nine straight division titles and are the biggest favourites in the entire NFL to make that a decade of dominance. They’ve topped the standings 14 times in 15 years and that one miss came with Tom Brady’s injury – his fitness again looks to be the only barrier between them and a tenth straight title. You can go on about who they’ve signed and who they’ve lost, but they’ve still got Brady and coach Bill Belichick and more often than not that results in at least a divisional crown.
The Bills and Dolphins were mainly separated by their two games against each other late on in the season, but Miami can reverse that form this year with Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback after his long injury lay-off, to pip them to second place. The New York Jets are assembling some decent pieces and they may surprise a few, but they still look the bottom of the pile here even though they do look on the up.
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