NFL betting tips: Week 9
Monday Night
3pts Garrett Wilson (Jets) Over 4.5 Receptions at 5/8 (bet365)
Sunday Night
2pts Josh Allen (Bills) & Joe Burrow (Bengals) 2+ Passing Touchdowns Each at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
2pts Dallas Goedert (Eagles) Over 42.5 Receiving Yards at 5/6 (General)
1pt Dallas Goedert (Eagles) anytime touchdown at 13/5 (General)
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Jets
- 01:15 GMT, Tuesday
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
Through seven games of the season, the Los Angeles Chargers have a major, major problem.
The LA defence just simply cannot stop the pass. They’ve conceded 297 yards per game so far, over 30 yards more than the Jaguars, who own the NFL’s second-worst pass defence.
It’s a genuine achilles heel and something the Jets would be foolish to not exploit on Monday night, particularly as they will have to stay aggressive to keep up with Justin Herbert.
Enter GARRETT WILSON.
The Jets’ #1 receiver has a line set at 4.5 RECEPTIONS on Monday and I can see him smashing the over with relative ease.
Wilson’s had at least five catches in five of his last seven games this season and he’s been targeted a whopping 25 times in the last two weeks alone.
He’s become a firm favourite in the Jets’ passing game and – unless there’s a huge uplift in the Chargers’ pass defence – he may well back up his first 100-yard game of the season last Sunday with another huge performance.
He’s been targeted at least five times in every single NFL game this season, so the opportunity will certainly be there.
If Wilson can showcase the soft hands that have become a staple of his recent form, he’s set to go off against the NFL’s softest pass defence.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
- 21:25 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
I’m all-in on Dallas when the Eagles take on the Cowboys this weekend, but not quite in the way you’re expecting.
DALLAS GOEDERT looks set for a big day against Philly’s NFC East rivals and he has a couple of player props that look very tempting at the early prices.
With good reason, attention will be away from him when things get underway on Sunday. A.J. Brown is on an historic run, having picked up over 100 yards in each of his last six games. The star wide receiver has been unplayable of late and shown no signs of stopping. Meanwhile, DeVonta Smith remains a constant threat in the Eagles’ offence. He went off for 99 yards and a touchdown himself last time out.
To say the least, the Cowboys defence have their hands full this weekend and their priority has to be doing everything they can to stop Philadelphia’s high-powered receiver tandem.
This provides an opportunity for Goedert.
.@goedert33 is just built different 😂@DraftKings | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/6BKLxMmS0K
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) October 28, 2023
He’s been a steady performer for multiple seasons and Jalen Hurts isn’t afraid to use his #1 tight end in any situation. Goedert’s been targeted 48 times this season, averaging six targets per game. As he’s racked up 360 receiving yards so far, that averages out at exactly 7.5 yards per target.
With a line set at 41.5 this weekend, it stands to reason that Goedert has a great chance of cashing the OVER, simply by doing what he’s been doing. If he can turn six targets into seven catches of 7.5 yards, he’ll be on 45 total yards and over-backers will be very pleased indeed.
Of course, targets don’t all necessarily convert into receptions and yardage, but the Eagles tight end is consistent in a tight spot. Just two weeks ago, he caught 100% of his targets against Miami on the way to picking up 77 yards and a touchdown.
His match-up against the Cowboys is favourable too. As mentioned earlier, the Cowboys have their hands full with Philly’s star receivers and recent form against the tight end position hasn’t been kind to Dallas.
They concede 46 yards per game, on average, to tight ends and over ten yards per reception. Plus, only one team in the entire NFL has given up more receiving TOUCHDOWNs to the position.
There’s a definite blind-spot in the Cowboys’ defence and with their hands so full with Brown and Smith, expect Nick Sirianni to call Dallas Goedert’s name often on Sunday.
At least 43 receiving yards looks more than gettable and, with tonnes of man coverage expected to negate the threat of the receiver unit, look for the Eagles tight end to get the better of some one-on-one mismatches over the middle of the field.
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals
- 01:20 GMT, Monday
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
The Bills and Bengals are set to play out the most-anticipated Sunday Night Football of the season so far and all eyes will be on the quarterbacks.
Two of the very best in the game, JOSH ALLEN and JOE BURROW are always fun to watch and, generally, they’re pretty productive too.
I like them to have a pair of passing touchdowns each as the Bills and Bengals come to blows, at a more than reasonable price considering their obvious talents.
As per the usual, Allen is right on pace and his numbers on the year speak for themselves. The three losses on Buffalo’s record are working against him but Allen is competing at an MVP level once again, leading the league in both QB rating and – perhaps most impressively – completion percentage.
#BillsMafia v #RuleTheJungle! @gregcosell breaks down how Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense got back on track last week. The Bills found success through the air in their 2x2 sets, whether it was in the structure of the play, or off-schedule.@DariusJButler | @PlaybooKFoley pic.twitter.com/9IydMDR9LL
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) November 4, 2023
He’s thrown 17 touchdowns through eight games, averaging more than the magic two per game and that ranks him third in the league, only slightly behind Tua Tagovailoa and the now-stricken Kirk Cousins.
As for Joe Burrow, he’s clearly been struggling with his lingering calf problem in the early stages of the season but, in recent weeks, he’s looked back to his brilliant best.
Burrow had just two passing touchdowns in his first four games of the season, blanking in three of them as the Bengals struggled to a 1-3 record.
Since then, the former LSU superstar has turned the corner and normal service has resumed. In his previous three games, Burrow’s thrown eight touchdowns, including three in a special performance against the 49ers last week, in which he completed 28 of his 32 passes in the game.
All of a sudden, the Bengals’ quarterback is the form player in his position, just in time for this blockbuster AFC showdown.
With a total match points line set at 49.5, points are anticipated in this one and both teams are more than capable of moving up the field quickly. When they get to the red zone, we can anticipate strikes from both Allen and Burrow on Sunday night.
Odds correct at 1135 GMT (04/11/23)
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