NFL Week 7 betting tips: Best bets, predictions, picks and previews

NFL betting tips: Week 7

2pts Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) to beat the Cincinnati Bengals at 24/23 (SBK)

2pts Cleveland Browns (+6.5) to beat the Baltimore Ravens at 28/29 (SBK)

2pts New York Giants to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars at 20/13 (General)

2pts Over 50.5 Total Match Points – Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers at EVS (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

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Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals

• Kick-off time: 1800 BST
• TV: NFL Redzone - Sky Sports Mix
• Best bet: Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) to beat the Cincinnati Bengals

At some point, these hefty Falcons handicaps are going to disappear. Either that, or every sportsbook in Las Vegas will be bankrupt by the end of the season.

The 3-3 Falcons are surpassing expectations in the post-Matt Ryan era and as we enter week seven, they lead the league in every NFL bettor’s favourite category.

The Falcons are the only team currently 6-0 against the spread this season. That’s right, the Falcons – who were widely tipped in the pre-season to be among the league’s most hapless teams – have covered the handicap in each and every one of their assignments thus far, and it’s a trend that has a chance to continue this weekend.

Marcus Mariota was clearly a designated stop-gap quarterback for the Falcons this season, but he’s playing out of his skin, knowing full well that he’s more than likely in last chance saloon in terms of his chances of earning one more big deal in the NFL.

He was the driving force behind Atlanta’s upset win over San Francisco last week, where he helped the Falcons’ run game dominate. Even without Cordarrelle Patterson, the Red and Black excelled, putting 28 points on the #1 ranked defence in the league.

It was a very impressive performance, and the Cincinnati defence they’ll encounter on Sunday is much less resilient. The Bengals’ D is ranked 15th by PFF – middle of the road by any measure – and although Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are sublime when they get going, Cincy have made a habit of playing from behind in games this season and consistency has alluded them.

With 6.5 points in their back pockets, I like the Falcons to cover once again.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

• Kick-off time: 1800 BST
• TV: Sky Sports NFL
• Best bet: Cleveland Browns (+6.5) to beat the Baltimore Ravens

The Browns were admittedly battered a week ago by the New England Patriots, but it has become evident that Bill Belichick’s troops are far better than they were initially given credit for. The Patriots matched-up beautifully against Cleveland – as predicted in this very column – and I don’t believe we can bury the Browns as a result of that display.

It’s the Ravens up next – in a key AFC North clash – and this is a match-up that suits the Ohio franchise way, way more.

If Cleveland’s battle with New England was a bruising, heavyweight tussle with both sides attempting to overwhelm the other with sheer volume of concussive blows, the Ravens are something else entirely. Baltimore are a middleweight, who will seek to exploit weaknesses with speed and guile. But, ultimately, the power and aggression of the bigger and badder Browns will be difficult to overcome.

Lamar Jackson’s team have been up and down to say the least. They did manage to beat the Bengals a fortnight ago, but that victory was sandwiched between defeats, and the latter of those is of particular interest to us.

The Giants came away 24-20 victors last Sunday and – as I’ve mentioned in previous weeks – there are clear similarities between Brian Daboll’s New York outfit and the Browns. It’s run-first football, which utilises primary talents (Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb respectively) and has an emphasis on keeping the ball out of the hands of the opposition.

It’s a system that clearly pays dividends against a Ravens defence that ranks 29th in the NFL and I suspect Cleveland will have an edge as they head into a crucial game this weekend.

The sheer will and ability of Lamar Jackson prevents me from going as far as predicting a Browns money-line victory, but I’m more than comfortable taking the generous 6.5 points available on the handicap at a near-even money price.

New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars

• Kick-off time: 1800 BST
• TV: Sky Sports NFL
• Best bet: New York Giants to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars

The 5-1 Giants are 3.5 point underdogs against the 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars. Go figure.

The Jags have home-field advantage and are in need of a bounce-back performance after two straight defeats, but the case for favouritism is weak and pretty much ends there in regards to Jacksonville.

There’s definitely an element of the bookmakers expecting the wheels to fall off the Giants wagon at some point soon, but I’m glass-half-full when it comes to New York’s remarkable start to the NFL season.

Beyond the talent of Barkley in the back-field, they’re far from flashy, but the Giants are getting the job done on a weekly basis and it appears that their rookie head coach has done an exceptional job with Daniel Jones. The quarterback was renowned as a turnover machine, but it’s now three weeks since his last interception and the increased level of ball retention has allowed New York to pick up some massive wins over the Packers and the Ravens.

That particular factor plays into why I like the Giants in this game, as Jacksonville do much of their best work in defence.

After years of accumulating high draft picks and top talent, the Jaguars are aggressive on that side of the ball and they’re constantly looking to pick up turnovers and points.

If Jones can continue to play smart and somewhat conservatively, the Giants should be able to control the game clock and allow Barkley to do his thing on the ground. They’re still the fourth-most effective rushing team in the league and, at some point soon, the entire NFL is going to have to sit up and take notice.

With this in mind, the 3.5 point handicap on offer almost seems like an insurance policy but the last six weeks tell us that the value is on the money-line, with the Giants very much a live dog.

The records of New York and Jacksonville perfectly match their respective records against the spread, so this is a result-betting opportunity if the NFL has ever seen one. Take the Giants and the value.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers

• Kick-off time: 2125 BST
• TV: Sky Sports NFL
• Best bet: Over 50.5 Total Match Points

It’s a relatively high total match points line, but I’m on board with Sky Sports’ chosen game of the week delivering in a big way. After all, the UK audience could have had seen the Chiefs’ battle with the 49ers televised, but Sky have picked this one for a reason, right?

This is a remarkable sentence to be writing seven weeks into the campaign – based on early-season Seattle predictions – but both the Seahawks and Chargers carry top ten-ranked offences into this match-up, and neither side has a defence ranked above the league average.

It’s a perfect recipe for points and an unlikely shootout between Justin Herbert and Geno Smith. Los Angeles will try to slow the pace via the use of Austin Ekeler on the ground, but Seattle are all about the aerial attack and, if they’re playing from behind, there’s every chance that Seattle chase down the Chargers with points in bunches from the likes of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who both rank in the top 20 in the NFL right now.

This makes for a high-scorer and the Las Vegas sportsbooks are showing a trend that makes taking the ‘over’ of 50.5 points very tempting.

PFF suggest that at the time of writing, while the majority of the public are backing the under in the game, almost 70% of stakes are on the over. The smart money says we’ll see points in this one, and with all things considered, I tend to agree.

Odds correct as of 2200 BST (21/10/22)

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