NFL Week 6 betting tips, points spreads, accumulators and best bets
Ross Williams looks ahead to the final game in Week 6 in the NFL on Monday night as Los Angeles Chargers visit Dallas Cowboys.
NFL betting tips: Week 6
2pts New Orleans Saints (-1.5) to beat the Houston Texans at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
2pts Ja’Marr Chase over 7.5 receptions at evens (Sky Bet)
2pts Over 42.5 total match points in Lions @ Buccaneers at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
2pts Los Angeles Chargers to beat the Dallas Cowboys at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
- Tuesday, 0115 BST
Monday Night Football throws up a tricky proposition in the shape of two teams that show up differently every time we see them.
There is little consistency when it comes to the Chargers and the Cowboys, but I think that sprouts a value opportunity on the money-line.
Los Angeles are priced at 23/20 to win the game at present and there’s enough reason to believe they can pull it off. Justin Herbert is levels above Dak Prescott at the moment in terms of quarterback play, the Chargers are the home team and LA are coming off a bye which should have them refreshed and healthier than their opposition.
Dallas are an odd team at the moment because we simply don’t know if they’re at the level they need to be. They’re 3-2 on paper, but those three wins (albeit blow-outs) came against the Jets, the Giants and the Patriots – teams that have a combined tally of four wins this season, and 11 defeats.
The Cowboys are flimsy and although the Chargers have their fair share of problems too, they are on a two-game winning streak and their defeats in weeks one and two were by a combined five points.
If we know anything about the Chargers, it’s that they will hang around in football games and will always be a live dog in the fourth quarter. This game screams that it’ll be close and – right now – if I was asked which of the two quarterbacks I’d prefer to have in a game-deciding situation, it’s not even close. Take Herbert’s Chargers on the money line.
Posted at 1535 BST on 14/10/23
Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints
- Sunday, 1800 BST
We could be set for another exciting early window this weekend with five of the 6pm games carrying a spread of less than four points at the time of writing. There are close match-ups aplenty and my pick actually comes in the game with the skinniest handicap.
The Houston Texans have been about as successful as they could have hoped for so far, picking up two wins in a streaky start to the season. Mike Vrabel’s side have shown inconsistency, but there’s talent on the roster and the play of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has been exceptional.
He’s thrown 186 passes to date since his debut and none of them have fallen into the hands of an opposition defender. The league-leading run without a turnover has been impressive, though I suspect it may end this weekend.
The Saints have racked up seven interceptions so far and have already tied their 2022 tally. It’s a strong New Orleans defence this year and especially against the pass. Only two teams have conceded fewer passing yards through five games so far this season.
They’re a unit designed to limit the capabilities of a passing attack and – as good as Stroud’s start has been – he’ll be up against it this week with Tank Dell and Robert Woods likely to miss the game, or at least not be at 100%.
The Texans will be chasing in this game, which will cause Stroud to take chances, leading to an overdue fatal error.
A week or two ago, I’d have been less convinced that New Orleans had the ability to put the scoring pressure on Houston, but a 34-0 rout of the Patriots last weekend put any doubts to bed.
New England were poor on reflection, but the Saints still had to execute and they did just that.
90% of the money this weekend is currently on the Saints, giving 1.5 points according to Pro Football Focus, and that’s telling. They should be more effective on both sides of the ball and with a spread as little as this, I like New Orleans to cover.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks
- Sunday, 1800 BST
If you weren’t already familiar, last weekend should have made you very aware of a young man named Ja’Marr Anthony Chase.
The 23-year-old Bengals wide receiver might be as good as it gets in the modern NFL. As a route runner and pass catcher, he’s something seriously special and he flexed in a big way on Sunday, pulling in 15 receptions for 192 yards and three touchdowns.
He’s pretty good on his worst days, but he’s unplayable when placed in a favourable situation and that’s what he has ahead of him on Sunday.
The Cardinals defence were no match for Chase and Seattle – this week’s opponents – have had considerable problems against aerial attacks.
They’ve given up an average of 280 passing yards across their four games so far and 113 total completions. That works out at a touch over 28 completions per game.
Seeing as Chase has been given a 32% target share so far and has caught 35% of Cincinnati’s receptions, there looks to be significant value in his receptions prop.
The line sits at 7.5 catches and that appears more than doable, as a 35% share of 28 likely receptions this weekend comes out at 9.8.
With that in mind, I certainly wouldn’t advise against backing Chase to grab nine or even 10 passes this weekend (priced at 39/20 and 33/10 respectively) but Ja’Marr hitting over 7.5 receptions looks to be the bet.
The numbers check out, he’s in exceptional form and, whenever in doubt, it usually pays to put faith in the NFL’s superstars.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
- Sunday, 2125 BST
Tampa Bay games generally lean towards the ‘under’ in terms of the total points market, but I sense the mark of 42.5 is a little too low this week.
It’s understandable due to the Buccaneers’ start to the season, where they’ve shown off some excellent defensive play, keeping three of their four opponents so far to fewer than 20 points. But, the Detroit Lions are a different animal.
Dan Campbell’s outfit, despite being without stars such as Amon-Ra St.Brown in recent weeks, can’t stop scoring and they’re a buzzsaw at the moment. With help from their defence, the Lions racked up 42 points on the Panthers on Sunday and that was following up a 34-point display at Green Bay, where the Lions essentially had the game won at half time.
The NFC North leaders are for real and need to be involved in the ‘big-boy’ discussions as we move towards the middle stages of the season. No longer the plucky pretenders, Detroit have a legitimate chance of going on a long-anticipated play-off run at the end of the campaign if just a few things go their way.
With Tampa Bay coming off a bye week, there’s a level of natural uncertainty that doesn’t allow me to be confident in the result market (though I would lean towards Detroit), but the aforementioned points total situated at 42.5 is well worth a small play.
It’s a low line for a game involving two teams with winning records and the maths works out. Tampa Bay receives higher praise for their defensive exploits, but still average 21 points per game. Whereas Detroit are averaging 29.6 points per game. That’s the fourth-highest mark in the NFL and it’s been achieved without the Lions’ star players being consistently available and on the field.
Even if Tampa are able to take a whole seven points away from the Lions’ average, a mark of 43.6 points in the game is still on track and that would be enough to land the overs.
This one seems oddly priced and although that does attract scepticism, a small play looks well worth it.
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