Ross Williams delivers his verdicts and best bets for the Week 6 action in the NFL.
NFL betting tips: Week 6
2pts New England Patriots (+2.5) to beat the Cleveland Browns at 24/23 (SBK)
2pts New York Jets (+8.5) to beat the Green Bay Packers at 5/6 (General)
2pts Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes 2+ passing touchdowns each at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
2pts Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) to beat the Philadelphia Eagles at 19/20 (SBK)
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New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns
- Kick-off time: 1800 BST
- TV: NFL Redzone - Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: New England Patriots (+2.5) to beat the Cleveland Browns
Two sides who reap the rewards of running with the football lock horns on Sunday evening, in a clash that may go a long way to spelling out the level of postseason ambition in the cities of Cleveland and Foxborough.
They may need the full extent of the 2.5 points on offer, but I do think New England has what it takes to cover against the Browns. As far as momentum goes, the Patriots are riding as high as they have all season following a dominant blowout victory over the Lions and they will be especially buoyed by the stat-lines produced by the likes of Rhamondre Stevenson and Jakobi Myers.
As for the Browns, they weren’t a million miles away from beating the LA Chargers, but mistakes down the stretch ultimately cost Cleveland and resulted in a demoralising defeat.
With Jacoby Brissett at quarterback for the Browns and the Patriots’ signal-calling situation somewhat in the air, there’s no question that both teams will be relying on a strong performance on the ground.
Offensively, the tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt gives Cleveland the edge, but Stevenson’s Week 5 performance for the Patriots was nothing to be sniffed at.
In the absence of Damien Harris, the second-year back went berserk, ripping off 25 runs to the tune of 161 yards. He completely opened up the offensive playbook for young quarterback Bailey Zappe and made his life an awful lot easier.
A repeat display gives New England every chance and, besides, it’s the defensive side of the ball that may split these two AFC hopefuls apart.
Cleveland have been leaky against the run so far, conceding eight touchdowns on the ground. For context, only Seattle. Chicago and Detroit have allowed more. New England, on the other hand, have been way sturdier.
Through five weeks, the Patriots have allowed just two touchdowns via the run game, and that’s what may well set them apart on Sunday. If they can shut the door on Chubb and Hunt, a chance to pick up a crucial road win will undoubtedly present itself.
New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers
- Kick-off time: 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Redzone - Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: New York Jets (+8.5) to beat the Green Bay Packers
They’ve had off days, but when this Jets team get rolling, they’re a problem.
New York were predictably stop-start under the stewardship of Joe Flacco in the first three weeks of the season, but they’re 2-0 since Zach Wilson came back into the fold at quarterback and it would appear they have unearthed a superstar in Breece Hall, the rookie running back out of Iowa State.
Hall accounted for a touchdown and a mammoth 197 yards last week and he matches up okay against a Packers run defence that is slightly below average and allowed Saquon Barkley’s Giants plenty of success at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday.
Now, tipping against Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field is generally regarded as foolish and I can’t in good faith claim that the Jets will win this game and condemn Green Bay to a second straight defeat against New York opposition.
However, the travel hangover of returning from London and heading straight into normal service shouldn’t be underestimated and the handicap spread on offer is hefty, considering the confidence and recent form of the Jets, along with the clear – but somewhat mysterious – feeling around the Packers’ organisation at present.
Since the departure of Davante Adams, something just seems off with Green Bay.
It’s hard to put your finger on what’s going on, and their 3-2 record is far from terminal of course, but there is a real sense that these are not the Packers we’ve come to expect over the last few seasons and the final embers of the Rodgers era are beginning to cool.
Green Bay may well win on their home patch as they often do, but the match-up suits the Jets as well as it ever has, and I fancy them to keep things close and stay within a touchdown of the Pack as they travel to the frozen tundra.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Kick-off time: 21:25 BST
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes 2+ passing touchdowns each
The game of the week and, if it goes to script, an early favourite for game of the season.
Allow me to set the scene. The previous three match-ups between the AFC’s heavyweights have averaged 66 total points (so do consider the ‘over 54.5’ in the total match points market this weekend) and the trio of football feasts have provided a grand total of 17 passing touchdowns.
By NFL standards, the Bills and Chiefs put on some absurd offensive spectacles and there’s little reason to suspect we won’t see more of the same on Sunday.
Calling a winner in this game between the league’s hottest offences (who are literally ranked #1 and #2 in terms of points scored through week five) seems almost folly, but there are chances to grab value in the quarterback markets.
Both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have passing touchdown lines of 2.5 this weekend, so by all means pick your favourite if you’re in search of a slightly bigger price.
Mahomes is right in line, averaging three strikes per game, and Allen of the Bills is ever so slightly behind, but still flying. After a monster display against the Steelers, Allen himself has 14 passing touchdowns from his five games so far.
There’s certainly value there, but combining the two performances works on a historical and statistical level.
5/6 appears a generous price for both signal-callers to find the end zone on two occasions. In each of the three aforementioned matchups, both Mahomes and Allen managed at least two passing scores and the current season averages play well into their favour too.
If the game delivers on the promise it undoubtedly has, this lands.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Kick-off time: 01:20 BST
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) to beat the Philadelphia Eagles
I’m taking a rare venture into the prime-time slot this week, where the Philadelphia Eagles are handing their cross-division rivals a 6.5 point head-start. In my opinion, that’s far too generous.
The Eagles have been excellent thus far. They’re currently the only undefeated team in the NFL and they may well extend that record beyond Sunday night, but I give Dallas every chance of keeping this match-up tight and within the six-point threshold.
Dak Prescott may be back for the Cowboys on Sunday night – which would provide an obvious boost to the visitors – but even if the franchise quarterback remains on the sidelines - his backup Cooper Rush has proven himself to be a more-than-adequate stand-in.
He’s guided the Cowboys to an impressive 4-1 start, and Rush himself is 5-0 as an NFL starter.
Dallas are dependable on offence, but it’s defensively where they have really excelled. The Cowboys are conceding less than 15 points per game on average (3rd best in the NFL) and the likes of Demarcus Lawrence are showing out on a weekly basis.
And that’s before we even get to Micah Parsons. The reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year is odds-on favourite to clinch the senior award this season at the tender age of 23 and – without hyperbole – there are few that would question that he’s destined to be a Hall of Fame-calibre talent.
He has been phenomenal coming off the Dallas edge this year – picking up a league-leading six sacks – and that’s arguably not even Parsons’ most natural position. Regardless, he’s a monster and his match-up with Philadelphia on Sunday night could be extremely favourable, with starting left tackle Jordan Mailata not guaranteed to play.
His backup at the position allowed six QB pressures against Arizona last week, contributing to Jalen Hurts’ steadily rising sack total, and a repeat of that performance would give the Cowboys a real edge and the potential to spring an upset that would put the whole league on notice.
It’s very hard to go 6-0 in the NFL and for a team that visually worsens against blitz packages, the aggressive Cowboys pass-rush could be a nightmare match-up for the otherwise high-flying Eagles.
Odds correct at 1630 BST (14/10/22)
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