Ross Williams was in profit last Sunday and returns to look at the Week 16 NFL matches, including Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers.
NFL betting tips: Week 16
1pt Christian McCaffrey (49ers) & Lamar Jackson (Ravens) both to score a touchdown at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers
- Tuesday, 0115 GMT
Christmas Day (or the very early hours of Boxing Day for us in the UK) heralds a genuine game of the year contender and a possible Super Bowl dress rehearsal.
With a line set at 5.5 points in favour of the 49ers, this doesn’t feel like a game where the result should be considered from a betting point of view, but there’s certainly value to be had in the player prop markets as some of the league’s biggest superstars take centre stage.
I’m not reinventing the wheel with the first leg of the double. With 20 scores to his name already this season, CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY is the premier offensive talent in the National Football League and the case for him to find the endzone writes itself.
The Ravens have been stingy against opposing running backs this season, but CMC is a whole different animal and all comers have failed to contain the 49ers superstar. There’s a reason he’s the shortest price in the league to score a touchdown, every single week.
Naturally, there’s little value in backing McCaffrey as a single, which is why I also recommend doubling him up with LAMAR JACKSON.
The Ravens’ quarterback has five rushing touchdowns to his name this year – so we are taking a bit of a chance in order to grab the 3/1 value – but the situation plays into a need for Lamar to use his running talent.
Explosive running back Keaton Mitchell has seen his season come to a premature end – adding to the likelihood of Jackson taking rushing snaps in the red-zone – and the lack of his traditional safety-net in Mark Andrews means that Jackson may look to use his legs more often, as he’ll be unable to check down as easily, in the split seconds after the snap.
Pressure will come for Jackson off the 49ers’ edge – that’s a given – so we can expect to see the QB utilising any available channel he can. With the deeper levels of the 49ers defence occupied by Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr, Lamar has the ability to exploit the space and that makes him a serious touchdown threat.
Christmas Eve best bets
2pts Houston Texans (+2.5) to win at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BoyleSports)
2pts Indianapolis Colts to win at 5/4 (bet365)
2pts Dolphins v Cowboys – over 49.5 total match points at 10/11 (General)
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans
- Sunday, 1800 GMT
We kick off the Sunday slate with a high-stakes tie in the AFC Play-Off race. HOUSTON are hosting the 9-5 Cleveland Browns and I’m on board with the home team getting it done, despite being underdogs.
The status of star, first-year quarterback C.J. Stroud is vital to this pick, but the signs are positive that the likely Rookie of the Year is set to return after suffering a concussion a couple of weeks ago and that will be a major boost for the Texans, who performed admirably to hold off the Titans last week regardless of their quarterback situation.
They are a solid, well-drilled and well-coached football team and the addition of Stroud just adds that bit of sparkle that franchises need to broach the next level in the NFL.
Houston are welcoming Cleveland to town and the Browns retain favouritism due to back-to-back wins. But their victory over Chicago was far from commanding.
Joe Flacco – who is still going around, somehow – showed his frailties against the Bears when throwing three interceptions and everyone in the stadium was forced to hold their breath in the final moments as a Chicago Hail Mary attempt came as close to being converted as any we’ve seen in recent memory. The Browns picked up the win by the skin of their teeth, but their card is marked.
The handicapper has kept the faith, but I think we can take advantage with 2.5 points in the back pocket of Demeco Ryans and the Texans.
Houston have been underdogs by 2.5 points or more seven times this season and they’ve covered the spread in six of those outings. This is a team that doesn’t mind being up against it and they’ve made a habit of remaining in the dog-fight for the full 60 minutes – particularly when Stroud has been under centre.
Give me the Texans to keep another one tight.
Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons
- Sunday, 1800 GMT
Atlanta being favoured by 2.5 points over the Colts just feels… odd.
The Falcons are coming off their worst display of the season, having fallen to the one-win Carolina Panthers in a game that failed to muster much of anything. It was a vile game to watch and it’s led to yet another quarterback change, with Desmond Ridder one again losing his job to Taylor Heinicke.
Such inconsistency at the quarterback position never bodes well and it can only really be remedied by playmakers outside of the QB position making things happen by themselves. Sadly for the Falcons, that hasn’t really happened. Bijan Robinson’s output has frustrated Fantasy Football players all season and none of Atlanta’s receiver group have picked up more than two touchdowns.
The Falcons are still in the playoff hunt, but that is more down to the general performances of teams around them, rather than their own successes.
Things are rosier in the INDIANAPOLIS camp and a win for the Colts on Sunday would be enormous for their postseason aspirations.
Indy stumbled against Jake Browning and the Bengals a fortnight ago, but that was their only loss in six. The Steelers were no match for the Colts last Saturday and that 30-13 win will have Shane Steichen’s team flying into this challenge.
They did it the hard way, with Michael Pittman and Zack Moss both leaving the game in the first half, but it didn’t ultimately matter. Steichen is receiving serious Coach of the Year noise for the way he’s led a patched-up group to eight wins in his rookie year and securing a play-off spot should almost certainly land him that honour.
There are signs that Pittman could bounce straight back for this one after shaking off his concussion symptoms and a returning Jonathan Taylor was a full participant in practice this week – a welcome sign that could make up for any time that Moss misses this week due to his recent knock.
The Colts average six more points per game than the Falcons offensively and, with a welcome return for some of their key men, I fancy them to make a mockery of their underdog tag against a Falcons side that looks to be in disarray.
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins
- Sunday, 2125 GMT
When you run the numbers on the Cowboys’ visit to Miami, it’s hard to stray too far from the OVER.
At the time of writing, the line is set at 49.5 and you really don’t have to delve too deep into the stats to make a strong case for at least 50 points in this one.
The travelling Cowboys have averaged 30.8 offensive points (6th in the NFL) through 14 games this season, while the Miami Dolphins boast the league’s most potent scoring offence, averaging 31.5 per game.
The caveat, of course, is that the Cowboys also possess a defensive unit that ranks in the NFL’s top five but Dallas have conceded more than 30 points twice in their last three games and they’re backing up with a second-straight road game on the East coast.
The Dallas defence have not been at their best down the stretch – having done most of their best work early in the season – and the prospect of facing a returning Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle off a 120-yard game and a Raheem Mostert who has scored 20 touchdowns himself this season is a frightening one for any defence – not least one that was humbled so badly by Josh Allen and the Bills just a week ago.
As for the Dallas offence, last week was a stumbling block and it’s a game they’ll wish they could have back, but it’s hard to see them being as ineffective again. The Dolphins are a solid defensive unit but they’re not as stingy as Buffalo and Dak Prescott will be keen to get himself back on track with a potential MVP award still within his reach.
There are clearly points to be had in Miami on Sunday evening and both teams are stuffed with the offensive talent capable of taking advantage. Take the over.
Posted at 2235 GMT on 22/12/23
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
