Ross Williams picks out his best bets for Week 13 of the NFL season, with one strong fancy in the televised late kick-off.
NFL betting tips: Week 13
5pts Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals – Each team to score 20+ points at 20/23 (bet365)
2pts Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) to beat the Atlanta Falcons at 21/20 (Sky Bet)
2pts Detroit Lions to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars at 66/67 (SBK)
1pt Dameon Pierce (Texans) to score and Cleveland Browns to win by 1-6 points at 7/1 (bet365)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix (NFL Redzone)
- Best bet: Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) to beat the Atlanta Falcons
The Steelers carry a measly 4-7 record into week 13, but that may be deceptive.
Pittsburgh are clearly not the force they once were at the height of the Ben Roethlisberger era, but hell will freeze over before a Mike Tomlin-coached team fails to compete and they’ve looked far better in recent games.
There are multiple reasons why this has been the case, but the primary component cannot be overlooked.
T.J. Watt is one of the finest defenders the NFL has ever produced and his return from injury has sparked life and belief into a Steelers outfit that now has a chance of breaching .500 by season’s end.
The Steelers are 3-1 with Watt on the field this season and they’ve now won four of their last six games, with two understandable defeats coming at the hands of the high-flying Eagles and Bengals.
Defence has been the key in this timeframe and it’s impossible to argue against Watt’s impact. In the four games he’s played, Pittsburgh have recorded 14 quarterback sacks and produced eleven takeaways. Compare that with eight sacks and just five takeaways during the seven-game stretch Watt spent on the side line.
It’s a massive uplift in performance and it puts the Steelers in great shape as they head to Georgia to take on a sub-par Atlanta team.
At one stage of the season, the Falcons were the kings of covering the spread, managing to do so in each of their first six games.
However, after an 18-point defeat at the hands of Cincinnati in week seven, the trend flipped on its head.
Since the 23rd of October, the Falcons have covered just once – in a three-point win over Chicago – and performance has dipped dramatically. They’ve also lost start tight-end Kyle Pitts for the year, which impacts their offensive game-plan in a big way and puts a huge emphasis on the success of the ground game.
That’s not ideal with Pittsburgh coming to town; a team that ranks top ten in every major rush-defence category.
It’s pretty tough to run on the Steelers (104 yards per game) and it’s even harder to score on the ground (just six touchdowns conceded in 2022) so you can expect Atlanta’s points tally to be dwindling on Sunday. This will put Marcus Mariota in the uncomfortable position of having to drop back and throw the ball often to keep up. Enter, T.J. Watt and the ever-increasing level of Pittsburgh pressure.
With this in mind, the Steelers should keep the score down and hand Kenny Pickett a prime opportunity to back up their victory on Monday Night Football.
The Falcons are devoid of talent on the defensive side and if Pickett and co. can score 24 points on a fifth-ranked Colts defence, Atlanta should be no match.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix (NFL Redzone)
- Best bet: Detroit Lions to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence and his Jaguars picked up a statement victory over the Ravens last week, but I’m not convinced that warrants favouritism over the Detroit Lions on Sunday.
The one-point, last-ditch win was an exhilarating watch and the final drive in particular showed Lawrence in his very best light, but there’s no getting away from the fact that the result bookended a run of eight previous games that had produced a single, solitary win over the hapless Las Vegas Raiders.
It could be a turning point for Doug Pederson’s Jags, but I’m a realist and the smart money says that this team is at least another offseason away from committing to a resurgence.
This brings me back to Detroit, who should feel a little aggrieved with the point they’ve been awarded by the handicappers.
Unlike Jacksonville, the Lions are in the midst of a consistent run of form, despite the result on Thanksgiving Thursday.
They've won three of their last four – including two divisional match-ups – and there can be no shame in falling to the well-fancied Buffalo Bills by way of a last-second field goal.
Dan Campbell once again has his side playing with some real bite. The defence still has concerns due to the lack of quality personnel, but their November performances improved drastically on October’s.
After a barren month of defeats and 132 points conceded (33 per game) the Lions took some accountability and, over the last four games, only 85 points have slipped Detroit’s net – producing a far more competitive average of 21.15 per game.
And on the offensive side of the ball – for the first time since the retirement of Calvin Johnson Jr. – there is genuine optimism that Detroit have themselves some superstars in the making.
The 1-2 rushing punch of D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams has been the most prolific tandem in the NFL this season – accounting for 16 touchdowns – and the brilliantly-named Amon-Ra St. Brown has 65 catches on the season despite a couple of injury set-backs. In the NFC, only All-Pro Justin Jefferson and the reigning Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp have more.
With home-field advantage and a ten-day turnaround thrown into the mix, along with the effort Jacksonville had to expend just a week ago, I really like Detroit to win in this spot as slight underdogs.
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix (NFL Redzone)
- Best bet: Dameon Pierce (Texans) to score and Cleveland Browns to win by 1-6 points
There’s a grossness attached to this game that won’t shift between now and the final seconds ticking off the game clock and, for that reason, I almost avoided this match-up entirely.
However, I can’t look past the potential value on offer and, ultimately, we can’t just ignore an entire franchise for the remainder of this season and beyond.
Regardless of whether you believe Deshaun Watson should be suiting up for the Cleveland Browns this weekend for his debut appearance, he will be. That will be the one and only talking point in Houston on Sunday and we’re just going to have to get used to that, as uncomfortable as it may be.
With a tinfoil hat atop your head, it’s easy to make the case that the 2022 schedule was rigged in order to have the Browns visit the Texans in week 13, the very week Watson’s suspension was due to end. That’s not to say it was, it’s just awfully coincidental.
The return to NRG Stadium will be strange and the reaction Watson receives will be newsworthy alone.
From a pure football perspective, it’s tough to say how the quarterback will look in his first NFL start since January 3rd 2021.
Sunday will mark 700 days since he took to the field and despite his unquestioned and enormous talent, we have to suspect that rustiness will have an impact on his first display, at the very least.
This should slow down the Browns offence significantly enough for Houston to run Cleveland close in a game that will have real feeling. It’s been too long since the Texans played in a game of this magnitude and – although the reason for the hype and the attention is more than unfortunate – Sunday is as close to a playoff encounter as the Texans are likely to experience for some time.
If Houston simply roll over for Watson in their own building, with the whole football world watching, 2023 season tickets are going to be a tough sell and off-contract Texans players are not going to appear very attractive to potential suitors in the spring.
I don’t expect the 32nd-ranked team in the NFL to actually get the win as the lack of proficiency in the Texans’ quarterback room won’t allow for it. But, I do believe staying within a touchdown is a possibility due to how Houston’s run game matches up with the Browns.
The likes of Myles Garrett are historically excellent at getting to the QB, but the Cleveland front seven has struggled all season against running backs. Yardage-wise, the Browns average a deficit of 131.5 yards to the ground game and they’ve conceded 16 rushing touchdowns, which ranks third-worst in the NFL.
On paper, Dameon Pierce – the rookie running back that’s been a rare shining light for the Texans this season – has had the mother-of-all disappointing fortnights.
He’s put up just eight yards in each of his previous two games. But, I’m not giving up hope on the youngster just yet.
Both the Commanders and Dolphins have top-ten rush defences and the game scripts could not have been more detrimental to Pierce’s production. Against Washington, the Texans found themselves 20 points down at half time. Last week against the Dolphins, they were in a 30-point hole.
Naturally, Houston opted to throw the ball way more than they’d have liked in the second halves of those games and that dramatically ate into Pierce’s potential.
This week, they’re facing an offence that will take some time to get ticking as Watson regains his muscle-memory and a defence that much more resembles the Giants or the Chargers – two teams that Pierce has had great success against this season.
The rookie has three scores to his name so far in 2022. It’s not a blockbuster number by any stretch, but actually accounts for 20% of Houston’s total touchdowns this year and no player on the roster has more. Make no mistake, he’s still their number one weapon against the Browns.
Thanks to his figures over the last few weeks, value has emerged in the anytime touchdown scorer market for Pierce and I think we should take advantage. Couple this with Cleveland running out of Houston with a narrow win and the price lands at a very tempting 7/1 – more than worthy of a small value play.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Best bet: Each team to score 20+ points
For my final pick of the week, we’ve entered nosebleed territory, with my heaviest bet of the season so far.
For the first time in 2022, I’m going with a five-point selection as attention turns to the much-anticipated AFC Championship rematch.
The Bengals came out 27-24 winners back in January, clinching their first Super Bowl berth since 1989, and I believe the second course of this football feast has all the makings of a classic.
Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow are both in fine form and they make for excellent duelling partners. The two star quarterbacks comfortably rank in the NFL’s top-three in terms of passing yardage, passing touchdowns and big-time throws for 20+ yards. Josh Allen is the spare, which only adds to the prestige of the group.
To cut a long story short, I expect points in this game and lots of them, so a 5/6 price-point for both teams to score 20+ feels like it should come in a nicely-decorated box adorned with a suitably-festive bow.
Through twelve weeks of the season, Kansas City have failed to score 20 points just once, on a notable off-day against Indianapolis in September. It was their worst performance of the season, yet, they still scored 17 points on the road and missed a field goal which would have taken them across the designated threshold.
All told, Mahomes’ Chiefs are averaging just shy of 30 points per game in 2022 and this has been a trend ever since their star quarterback took over the starting role in 2018.
As for the Bengals, they’ve hit the 20-point mark in 75% of their games so far and are on a run of three straight. Plus, Cincinnati will be playing their ace card on Sunday.
The Bengals have been winning regardless without him, but Ja’Marr Chase is expected to return to action following a lay-off that has seen him on the side line since Halloween.
Tee Higgins has been exceptional in his stead over the last month, but Chase is one of the most-gifted receivers the NFL has seen in some time and his combination with Burrow – going back to their college careers at LSU – is borderline telepathic.
Chase dominated the Chiefs last season - going for over 300 yards and four touchdowns in their two meetings – and that alone should put to bed any concerns over the Bengals’ offence being prolific enough to keep pace with Kansas City.
This should be one of the games of the season – an offensive masterclass – and hopefully we can profit.
Odds correct as of 1550 GMT (02/12/22)
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