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NFL Week 12 betting tips, points spreads, accumulators and best bets

Ross Williams picks out his best bets for Week 12 of the NFL season, with four games in focus across Sunday and Monday.

NFL betting tips: Week 12

2pts Houston Texans beat the Jacksonville Jaguars at 21/20 (General)

2pts New Orleans Saints (-1.5) to beat Atlanta Falcons at 10/11 (General)

1pt Josh Allen (Bills) & Jalen Hurts (Eagles) to score 1+ rushing touchdown each at 5/1 (Sky Bet)

2pts T.J. Hockenson (Vikings) over 62.5 receiving yards at 17/20 (Unibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

  • 01:15 GMT, Tuesday
  • TV: Sky Sports NFL

A total of 55 targets in five weeks, picking up an average of 86.4 receiving yards. It’s fair to say Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson is in some impressive form.

In the absence of Justin Jefferson, the Vikings have leaned on their tight end in the passing game and the former Detroit Lion has delivered in a big way. Hockenson now leads the league in his position for both receptions and receiving yardage and he’s shown few signs of stopping.

This week, he’s in the prime-time spotlight and faced with a defence that has given up decent chunks of yardage to tight ends previously, including five 50+ yard games. With his recent average in mind, it’s tough to ignore a line set at 62.5 receiving yards.

Hockenson will almost certainly cash the over if the Vikings stick to their script, and there’s very little reason to suggest Minnesota will switch up their tactics.

In the NFL, it pays to ride the hot hand and Hockenson certainly has that right now.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

  • 18:00 GMT, Sunday
  • TV: Sky Sports NFL

An AFC South showdown headlines the early slate on Thanksgiving Sunday and there’s value in the underdog.

After picking up three wins on the bounce, the Houston Texans are riding the wave at the moment and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is receiving genuine MVP chatter as we approach the business end of the season.

However, the Jaguars head into this game as slight favourites due to their 7-3 record.

All things considered, the match-up looks like it should be a pick ‘em at best, so the value is absolutely with Houston on the money line.

NRG Stadium will be bouncing on Sunday and that home-field advantage has paid dividends for the Texans so far. They’ve won four in a row at home, including a week ago against the Cardinals.

Houston also have a significant historical advantage over the divisional rivals, which will be weighing on the mind of the travelling Jaguars. The Texans have won 16 of the last 19 meetings between the pair and Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence has a single, sole victory over the team battling with his at the top of the AFC South.

Plenty favours the Texans in this match-up and although the Jaguars are coming off a victory of their own and possess plenty of firepower, the Texans are battle-tested after a string of tight, one-score games and they’re making a habit of being clutch when it matters.

Take the Texans.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

  • 18:00 GMT, Sunday

All eyes are on the returning Desmond Ridder when the Falcons take on the Saints this weekend, but I’m struggling with the idea that he will provide an impact large enough to turn the tide for Atlanta.

The Taylor Heinicke experiment hasn’t worked – with the Falcons losing three-straight with the former Commander at quarterback – so it’s back to Ridder and plan A, a plan that wasn’t particularly effective the first time around.

The Saints aren’t a top team, but they’re astute defensively and excellent at putting the ball back into their offence’s hands. They’ve recorded 18 turnovers already this season, including twelve interceptions.

They’re a ball-hawking defence and that’s bad news for Ridder, who has been prone to giving up possession throughout his early NFL career. The quarterback, despite missing out on the last few games, has seven fumbles on the year and as many interceptions as passing touchdowns.

Ridder will have to get the better of the Saints’ defence for his team to have a chance, but it’s an incredibly tough ask of a quarterback that’s been out of form and even out of the team for the best part of the last month. New Orleans, despite giving up over 110 rushing yards per game, have only conceded six touchdowns on the ground, so Atlanta need to go airborne and into the teeth of the battle.

It's a battle I expect the Saints defence to win.

Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles

  • 21:25 GMT, Sunday
  • TV: Sky Sports NFL

A popular potential Super Bowl match-up before the season began, the clash between the Bills and the Eagles is one that can get mouths watering on Sunday evening.

As ever in these blockbuster games, eyes will be drawn to the superstar quarterbacks and both of these have a quality to their game that set them apart from many.

Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen can throw the ball as well as just about anyone, but their dual-threat abilities add an extra dynamic that we can exploit in the interest of value.

Hurts and Allen have scored 16 rushing touchdowns between them, heading into week twelve. Both are incredibly adept at using their physicality to find the endzone and both do so often. Hurts leads all quarterbacks with nine touchdowns on the ground, whereas Allen’s seven scores place him second on the list.

With a total match points line set at 48.5, touchdowns and a flurry of points are expected in this game so a price around the 5/1 mark is very tempting for a small play on both quarterbacks to run the football in.

Hurts ran two in last week in the win over the Chiefs, while you only have to go back to the 14th of November for Allen’s last rushing effort, when he went in against the Broncos on Monday Night Football.

Odds correct at 1215 GMT (25/11/23)

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