Ross Williams is +16.44pts in profit this season - an ROI of 20% - and he makes his four picks for week 12 of the NFL season.
2pts Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) to beat the Tennessee Titans & Over 43.5 Total Match Points at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts Washington Commanders (-4.5) to beat the Atlanta Falcons at 11/10 (SBK)
2pts Rachaad White (Buccaneers) to score a touchdown at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Arizona Cardinals to beat the Los Angeles Chargers at 6/4 (William Hill)
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I tipped up the Cincinnati Bengals in this column last week and, after a strong performance that returned some nice profit, I’m heading back to the well, with a twist.
Much like last season, these Bengals are coming up on the outside as serious contenders. They may not have the hype of some of their AFC rivals just yet, but their offensive performances of late have grabbed my attention.
In their last three performances, Cincy have scored an average of 37 points and that’s without the input of superstar receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who is likely to return to Joe Burrow’s arsenal this weekend after an injury lay-off.
If you add an obligatory Derrick Henry Tennessee touchdown to the mix on Sunday, that covers the 44 points required in my best bet for this game, and that just leaves the Bengals’ ability to win the game by a field goal or more.
The Titans aren’t without momentum themselves and they’ve made a sneaky habit of putting together strong winning records in recent seasons, despite going mostly under the radar.
However, Tennessee’s Achilles heel is their pass-defence, which is currently giving up 288 yards per game to receivers. Of the teams that have played ten games this season so far, no one concedes more.
With Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins in tow, Joe Burrow will be delighted at the prospect of that match-up and will certainly fancy himself to outscore the Titans in an aerial battle.
I expect the Bengals’ rampant point-scoring spree to continue and another tick in the win column for last season’s beaten Super Bowl finalists.
With all due respect to Carson Wentz, the Washington Commanders look twice the team with Taylor Heinicke – the franchise’s new official starter – under centre.
The former XFL star has been electric of late and the driving force behind the Commanders covering the spread in five of their last six games.
There’s a newfound belief around the team and there’s even potential of a playoff run if their form can continue. With that in mind, I’m predicting another win and another spread-cover as the Falcons come to town.
Atlanta have been battling away all season to their credit, but the loss of star tight-end Kyle Pitts is huge and puts an awful lot of pressure on just one or two individuals to carry the team home.
Offensively, it’s hard to imagine Atlanta will be able to click as well as they have been doing without Pitts in the line-up and, defensively, the Falcons haven’t been great all year regardless. As of week 11, the team concedes the fourth-most passing yardage in the league on a game-by-game basis and this kicks the door wide open for Heinicke to exploit with the likes of Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel.
It’s a tough ask for the Falcons to stop the red-hot Commanders this week and, as if the odds weren’t stacked enough against them, there’s also the potential that superstar defensive end Chase Young plays on Sunday for Washington.
Young will be eager to make an instant impression, so expect a battered and bruised Marcus Mariota on Monday morning, reflecting on a road defeat.
There was early expectation that Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette would be back healthy after the bye week but, after missing Wednesday’s practise and some interesting comments from the Tampa coaching staff, I don’t suspect we’ll see too much of Fournette on Sunday.
He may well be active and will probably see some activity if so, but if the soreness is still there there’s little reason for the Bucs to put too much pressure on the veteran.
This creates an opportunity for Rachaad White to stake his claim in Tom Brady’s offence, after a fantastic performance last time out when he took the starting reins.
White went for over 100 yards for the first time in his young career and showed some real explosion. He’s had a stop-start season, but the triple-figure game was a real statement of intent and evidence he’s up to the task in the NFL.
As the bookmakers still regard Fournette as the designated starter on Sunday, there may be value in White’s yardage line, but I like him to go all the way and score.
He made the most of an early opportunity in October, diving over on a one-yard score against the Chiefs, and this should give Tampa’s staff confidence that White can be trusted in the red zone this weekend against a Cleveland team has given up the second-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL this year.
Anytime touchdown bets are never an exact science, but I like the value of this one and my advice would be to go early. The price won’t go any higher, but it may be slashed if Fournette takes another set-back before Sunday’s game.
We love a home underdog and I think the Arizona Cardinals – despite their inconsistency – represent value on Sunday as they host the equally up-and-down Los Angeles Chargers.
The Cards are 3.5 point dogs at the time of writing, but they match up pretty well against a Chargers defence that is downright awful at stopping the run.
The caveat to this pick is the availability of Kyler Murray. The quarterback is trending as if he will play, but this one should definitely be a late decision, as I have much less faith in the Colt McCoy Cardinals getting the victory here.
But I digress, the Kyler-led Cardinals have picked up three wins this season and, on each occasion, the team rushed for over 130 yards. This is vital to their offensive game plan and, without those crucial yards, life gets very difficult for Arizona.
Thankfully for the Cardinals, Los Angeles give up 148 rushing yards per game on average, so it’s not hyperbolic to say that this match-up is one of the best Arizona will face all season.
If James Conner and Kyler can get going on the round – and they should – there’s no reason why the Cardinals shouldn’t run the Chargers very close and even get the victory. At a price-point of 6/4, this upset is well worth a punt, with Arizona approaching a stretch of the season that will make or break the immediate future of the franchise.
Odds correct as of 1430 GMT (25/11/22)
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