Matt Temple-Marsh has scoured the touchdown scorer markets for some extra value in Week Four of the NFL.
Sure, Ezekiel Elliott looks like he’ll score every single week – but at 1/2 for an anytime touchdown, the value simply isn’t there. In this article I’ll be looking for offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky back-ups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.
Seahawks @ Dolphins
Let Russ cook. Russell Wilson has gone wild this season, with 14 touchdowns through three games. He could throw 46 interceptions in his next 46 pass attempts and STILL have a better QB rating than Carson Wentz – yes you read that correctly.
Lockett & Metcalf are feasting in this offence, and this week they’re up against the eighth-worst team in the league to wide receivers in the Dolphins. The duo look certain to score every week, but the brace offers value – especially when considering Lockett is fresh off a hat-trick and a DK fumble cost him a brace last week. Pick your poison here, but Metcalf’s higher price and big play potential stands out to me.
Seattle are so fun to watch right now. Russell Wilson is unstoppable, and their defence is dreadful. They have given up more targets, receptions, and yards to slot receivers than any other team – and Gesicki has played 79% of his snaps from the slot so far. The tight end is establishing himself as the clear number two option behind Parker, and has two touchdowns in his last two games. Gesicki is due a huge week against this defence.
I can’t stress enough how bad this Seahawks defence is. They’ve given up 76 receptions & 1,136 yards to wide receivers in just three games – nearly 400 yards more than any other team – and we already know they are woeful against slot receivers. Ford has played 95% of his snaps in the slot, and whilst his numbers weren’t great last week we need to look back.
In weeks one & two he averaged a 16% target share in a negative game script, but this number dropped sharply last week against the Jags, where the team won. We can expect the Dolphins to be in another negative game script this week, so Ford represents value. This selection may seem rogue, but who would have thought that Cedrick Wilson (Cowboys WR) would score a brace against the Seahawks last week?
Saints @ Lions
The New Orleans Saints are the worst team in the league against tight ends right now. Through the first three weeks they have allowed 290 yards and four touchdowns to the position, which puts Hockenson in a favourable match-up.
Last week he was targeted a joint team-high seven times, hauling in four receptions for 53 yards.
Crucially, he has been targeted twice this season with goal-to-go opportunities, representing touchdown value. The Saints look more beatable than ever, and after a convincing defensive display against the Cardinals, the Lions will be able to keep this game competitive.
Jaguars @ Bengals
Higgins’ targets are rising whilst AJ Green’s are falling. The rookie was targeted nine times last week, catching five passes for 40 yards and two touchdowns. He is quickly establishing himself as Joe Burrow’s favourite red zone weapon, with four RZ targets in the last two weeks (three targets last week – two of them with goal-to-go).
This is an air raid offence with Burrow slinging the ball – the rookie QB already has 141 pass attempts, ranking as the second-most in the league. Green will still draw CB1 coverage, giving Higgins more opportunities to find the end zone.
Odds correct as of 1923 BST on 02/10/20