Ross Williams makes his picks for the Super Wild Card Weekend, with three games in focus for the best bets.
NFL betting tips: Super Wild Card Weekend
2pts San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) to beat the Seattle Seahawks at 19/20 (SBK)
2pts Justin Herbert & Trevor Lawrence to have 250+ passing yards each at 17/10 (bet365)
2pts Minnesota Vikings (-3) to beat the New York Giants at Evens (General)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
- Kick-off time: Saturday, 21:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) to beat the Seattle Seahawks
The 2023 post-season opener looks something of a formality on paper, with the seventh-seed Seattle Seahawks heading south to the ever-impressive 49ers.
San Francisco are strong 9.5 point favourites and there’s a multitude of reasons why. First and foremost, the Niners already have two wins over their division rivals this season, with the latter coming just under a month ago.
Over the course of those two meetings, the average deficit was 14 points in favour of San Francisco, so despite the size of the spread in this game, the 9.5 points are certainly in play.
Kyle Shanahan’s side have gone through some adversity this season – not least losing two quarterbacks to injury – but they head into the playoffs on a red-hot 10-game win streak thanks to the resilience of their excellent defence, the production of mid-season pickup Christian McCaffrey and the surprising-yet-fantastic play of back-up passer Brock Purdy.
Seattle have certainly had their moments this campaign and a playoff appearance is a just reward for their efforts. Regarded by many as one of the NFL’s worst teams heading into the season, the Seahawks have surpassed every expectation in the post-Russell Wilson era and the performances of Geno Smith have made him a worthy favourite for Comeback Player of the Year honours.
However, the Hawks don’t enter the knockout arena with the momentum they had in November after three losses in their last five and, now we’re being especially harsh at the business end of the year, there are questions to be asked about the quality of the wins Seattle have picked up this season.
Only two of their nine regular season victories came against teams that have been good enough to reach the postseason and five were against franchises ending the year with bottom-five records.
In other words, the Seahawks have been plucky this season and they’ve done enough to survive, but we’re yet to see them take down one of the NFL’s elite teams – and San Francisco absolutely fall into that category.
A “100% chance of rain” in Santa Clara on Saturday will play into the hands of Seattle slightly more than their opponents, but only as a means to limiting San Fran’s almost free-flowing scoring potential. The game will be sloppier, but with McCaffrey in sensational form and Eli Mitchell back in the 49ers back-field, I don’t have too many concerns.
A quite literal rain-check should be taken on this pick, but I’m willing to take the home-field 49ers – given the points - in any conditions short of a monsoon.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Kick-off time: Sunday, 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Justin Herbert & Trevor Lawrence to have 250+ passing yards each
Saturday night’s showpiece playoff encounter is a little too close to call due to the unpredictability of both outfits, so I’m opting for some déjà vu with my second pick of the weekend.
It seems a long time ago now, but the Chargers and Jaguars have already faced each other this year, way back in September. On the day, Jacksonville produced a rare early-season spectacular, demolishing their opponents 38-10 in their own backyard.
Six weeks passed before the Jags won again, but that week three match-up was a sign of what this team is capable of on their day.
The match-up also gives us a good retrospective sense of what we can expect in the early hours of Sunday morning, and what I’m getting is a good old-fashioned duel between two of the league’s most exciting gunslingers.
Lawrence saw something he could exploit in the Chargers’ secondary and he went at it, going off for three touchdowns and a cool 262 yards. The likes of Zay Jones and Christian Kirk were massive in that game and that pair have only grown into the season as it has progressed.
Not everyone has had success against the Chargers’ pass defence this year, but they still give up 7.3 yards per attempt, which ranks ninth-worst in the league. This points to them being susceptible to big plays over the top and Lawrence certainly has the tools to make those throws.
As for Justin Herbert, he threw for 297 yards back in September’s clash, despite his team being a relative non-factor for most of the afternoon.
Only Patrick Mahomes has thrown more yardage than Herbert this season and so, I love his chances of cracking the 250-yard mark in this game – one in which they should be way more competitive.
The loss of Mike Williams is a blow, but don’t let it put you off too much. Herbert was without Williams’ dance partner Keenan Allen when he put up the 297 against Jacksonville the first time around, so he won’t be concerned about losing one of his weapons. He’s Justin Herbert and he’ll simply find someone else to throw to.
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
- Kick-off time: Sunday, 21:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Minnesota Vikings (-3) to beat the New York Giants
The Vikings have been making bettors sweat all season long and we can probably expect more of the same on Sunday, but the redeeming quality of this Minnesota team is the fact that, after all the stress of the 60 minutes, they generally find a way to win.
By hook or by crook, this is an outfit that knows how to get over the line. The by-any-means-necessary approach isn’t pretty and it will likely catch up with them at some point in the next three weeks, but I do think they will at least succeed in their opening playoff assignment.
The New York Giants – much like the aforementioned Seahawks - have over-performed in many ways this season and cemented Brian Daboll’s reputation as one of the league’s top coaches.
Daniel Jones looks like a completely different quarterback behind the line of scrimmage and Saquon Barkley getting through an entire season unscathed has been nothing short of a delight.
However, the Giants don’t look to be the finished article (they just aren’t consistent enough) and recent history shows that the Vikings are in a better position to be winning this game. Indeed, these two sides faced off on Christmas Eve inside the same venue and the Vikings came out victors.
That was only three short weeks ago and I haven’t seen anything out of either side since to make me believe the form will be reversed.
Pro Football Focus ranks the Vikes higher in every significant facet of the game and Justin Jefferson – after an incredible regular season – is a player just made for the big stage of the Playoffs. After a couple of quiet weeks by his lofty standards, I’d be surprised if the former LSU standout doesn’t have a big say in this one.
Minnesota are excellent at home, boasting an 8-1 record this season, and with a capacity crowd cheering them on this weekend, I expect Kirk Cousins and the Vikings to have just too much for the Giants to handle.
Posted at 1200 GMT on 13/01/23
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