NFL MVP (Most Valuable Player) is the most prized individual award in pro football, and it provides a tantalising subplot to every single season.
Betting on the MVP race is one of the most volatile markets around, providing weekly swings with one false move potentially ruining a contender’s dreams of picking up the big prize.
One poor performance or one minor injury can wreck everything - continued excellence is the only way to win this bauble.
Let’s look at how the race for NFL MVP stands in 2023, 16 weeks into the regular season.
MVP race and odds in 2023
Week 16 is in the books, and we have more HUGE change in the MVP picture:
4/7 Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens): INCREDIBLE. Jackson was a 5/1 shot heading into the Week 16 matchup with the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. The perfect opportunity though to put one over on the then 1/2 favourite Brock Purdy. Lamar did just that as his Ravens stunned the 49ers 33-19 to close in on the #1 seed in the AFC for playoff season. Jackson was excellent, throwing for 252 yards and a pair of scores and rushing for 45 yards on just 7 carries. Next up Baltimore hosts Miami - its main rival for that spot as top seed - in a crucial Week 17 showdown. The perfect opportunity for Jackson to clinch his second MVP award? Or will there be one final twist?
7/2 Christian McCaffrey (RB, San Francisco 49ers): It is not often anybody who is not a QB wins MVP (more on the ugly stats to come) but ‘Run CMC’ saw his odds slashed from 11/1 to 7/2 second favourite DESPITE that home loss to Baltimore. McCaffrey ran for 103 yards and a score on just 14 carries to continue a stellar season, and next up he and the Niners face the Washington Commanders. A nice chance to pad that MVP resume.
10/1 Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Miami Dolphins): Tua kept himself very much in the MVP conversation by throwing for 293 yards and a score in a huge 22-20 win for the Dolphins over the Dallas Cowboys in South Florida. Tagovailoa was efficient and clutch against a fine Dallas defense, and do not count him out of the MVP race just yet. For this week he has that big showdown with Lamar and the Ravens in Baltimore. A win there and we could even see him enter Week 18 at the head of the betting. This truly is last man standing…
12/1 Josh Allen (QB, Buffalo Bills): Buffalo duly knocked off the floundering Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16, but the 24-22 final was closer than expected. Allen threw for 237 yards and a score and rushed for two more TDs to help Buffalo to the win, and maintain that playoff surge. The 9-6 Bills now face New England in Week 17, and another victory there could put Allen in position to snatch MVP at the last minute. He would then face Tua and the Dolphins in Week 18, and if Tua has already beaten Lamar this Sunday, get the popcorn ready…
12/1 Brock Purdy (QB, San Francisco 49ers): Talk about fluffing your lines on the biggest stage, Purdy went from a red-hot odds-on favourite to 12/1 in just 60 minutes after his surging Niners spluttered to that 33-19 home loss to Lamar’s Ravens. Much of this was on the previously excellent Purdy too, as he threw 4 interceptions in a miserable effort. Next up comes Washington, but only two wins to finish will maintain any shot at MVP for Brock. Sadly that one false step might have ruined his hopes already.
18/1 Dak Prescott (QB, Dallas Cowboys): Two weeks ago Dak was the hottest QB in football and MVP favourite as well. But that horror show in Buffalo was followed by agonising 22-20 loss in Miami, likely blowing any shot at the NFC East title. Prescott threw for 253 yards and a pair of TDs, but then saw his team fall to a last-second field goal. Dallas still has to beat a really good team on the road and it’s difficult to see him winning MVP with that kind of CV. No room for flat-track bullies here.
20/1 Tyreek Hill (WR, Miami Dolphins): A couple of weeks ago Tyreek was right in the MVP conversation as he surged to what looked like being a record-setting season. Sadly he has been slowed by injury since, even though he managed 99 yards on 9 catches in the win over Dallas. That first ever 2000-yard receiving season now looks unlikely (359 yards required in the final two games), with that difficult trip to Baltimore incoming.
Best of the rest: If you’re wondering where the defensive players are - the answer is nowhere. Only one has ever won MVP in the award’s long history (more on that to come) and it will not be happening for a second time in 2023.
Previous winners - the stats
If anybody ever tells you that the NFL is not all about the quarterback in 2023, just cite the latest odds for MVP. Then show them the list of previous winners. Nobody can deny it.
The Pro Football Writers of America began voting for MVP in 1975, and since then the men under center have absolutely dominated. In total, some 33 QBs have won the award outright in that time while Brett Favre shared with Barry Sanders in 1997.
Running backs are next best with 1
1 wins along with that Sanders share. But we haven’t had an RB take the prize since Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings in 2012.
Now - partly thanks to rule changes - it is all about the QB. They have won the last 10 awards and 18 of the last 20. For your reference, here are the last 10:
- 2012: Adrian Peterson (RB, Minnesota)
- 2013: Peyton Manning (QB, Denver)
- 2014: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay)
- 2015: Cam Newton (QB, Carolina)
- 2016: Matt Ryan (QB, Atlanta)
- 2017: Tom Brady (QB, New England)
- 2018: Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City)
- 2019: Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore)
- 2020: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay)
- 2021: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay)
- 2022: Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City)
The only two players outside QB and RB to be NFL MVP in the modern era are both generational talents - linebacker Lawrence Taylor (the only defensive winner) in 1986 and San Francisco WR Jerry Rice one year later.
Voting - who chooses the MVP?
This isn’t some nationwide fan vote - it is taken incredibly seriously. As such only 50 sports writers get to cast their vote for NFL MVP.
The big thing to note about the voting is WHEN it happens. Votes are cast at the end of the NFL regular season, so any success in the playoffs and Super Bowl DOES NOT count.
This is all about sustained excellence and brilliance throughout a 17-game season. Hot streaks in January and February do not apply.
When is NFL MVP announced?
NFL MVP is now announced at the league’s annual Awards Ceremony, a glitzy bash which takes place in the host Super Bowl city on the Thursday of game week.
That means the 2023 MVP should be crowned in Las Vegas, Nevada on Thursday February 8, 2024.
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