Ross Williams is eyeing an out-of-sorts quarterback for props value as he casts an expert eye over Sunday's NFL slate.
NFL betting tips: Week 9
2pts Cincinnati Bengals (-3) to beat the Atlanta Falcons at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
2pts Dallas Cowboys to score 30+ points at evens (bet365)
1pt Justin Herbert 2+ interceptions at 11/4 (bet365)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons (Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, Madrid)
The NFL hits the iconic Bernabeu on Sunday, with the 5-3 CINCINNATI BENGALS taking on the Atlanta Falcons in the Spanish capital.
Having beaten the Packers and the 49ers this season, the Falcons have proved they’re capable – but they’ve also shown real inconsistency.
Three of their last four games have ended in defeat and last week was particularly brutal – a 16-0 loss, in horrid conditions, to a Buccaneers team that failed to complete a single pass in the game. Yes, you read that correctly.
The Bengals, on the other hand, are hot.
Cincy have now recorded three wins on the spin and they’ve done so impressively. The offence – led by Joe Burrow and probably the league’s most elite receiver tandem in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – have racked up 109 points in just three games and their scoring has risen game-on-game.
On paper, on current form, this has the makings of a mismatch and with a three-point handicap available, the Bengals are the selection.
Cincinnati don’t just win, they win comfortably. Their average winning margin across their five victories this season is 11.2 points and none of their wins has been by fewer than six points.
Let’s take the Bengals to extend their fine form and give the Spanish public a treat on Sunday afternoon.
Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts
Following overtime heartbreak last weekend, DALLAS find themselves in something like ‘must-win’ territory on Sunday. At 3-5, the Cowboys are just about clinging on, but a 3-6 record would feel like curtains, even at this stage of the season.
Thankfully, their opponents this week represent an opportunity for the Cowboys to get right.
Following a monumental two weeks which saw the departure of GM Chris Ballard and the subsequent trading of Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner, arguably their best performers on either side of the ball, the Colts are in free-fall.
Essentially, 2026 is done. Indy’s record is 2-6, Daniel Jones has failed to look anything like the quarterback that took the league by storm in the first half of last season and against Jacksonville on Sunday, it looked like the Colts’ defence had simply given up.
The Jaguars’ receivers and backs simply carved their way through some rather pitiful Colts tackling and it’s hard to imagine motivation levels in Indianapolis have spiked in the last seven days. It’s already on to next season. They’re cooked, and they know it.
This is ideal for the Cowboys. A team that, if nothing else, can score points and plenty of them.
Dallas are currently the 8th-ranked offensive team in the NFL and, even when they’ve tasted defeat this year, they’ve generally handed out some punishment to their opposition’s defensive unit.
In five of their eight games this season, Dallas have scored 30+ points and this match-up screams opportunity for more of the same.
The Cowboys are priced at evens to score 30+ points against the Colts – who conceded 42 in a blowout last Sunday – and I like that route, rather than tackling the overall ‘over’ which would require the Colts offence to also click into gear.
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers
What on Earth has happened to JUSTIN HERBERT?
After six years of performances ranging from competent to outstanding, the former first-round pick has dropped off a cliff in 2026, along with the rest of his Los Angeles Chargers.
Through seven games, his completion rate is down 5% on his norm, his game/touchdown ratio is comfortably worse than at any other point of his career and – perhaps most brutally – he’s thrown 10 interceptions already this season.
Only in 2021 (15) and 2025 (13) has Herbert thrown more picks, and those are season-long figures encompassing 17 and 16-game seasons. To reiterate, Herbert has only played seven so far.
His confidence looks shot to pieces and that doesn’t bode well for Sunday, when he’ll take on the Houston Texans.
His opponents have also underperformed significantly this season, failing to build on a 2025 season that showed promise. However, they do have a couple of players who consistently create difficult afternoons for quarterbacks.
Danielle Hunter has been a game-wrecker for much of his career and the man across from him – Will Anderson Jr. – has evolved into one of the NFL’s elite pass-rushers. No one has more quarterback sacks than Anderson Jr. so far this season and he creates a nightmare match-up for Herbert, who has suffered through minimal protection thus far.
The Chargers QB has thrown at least one interception in every 2026 game and putting him against a duo of top-level pass-rushers is a recipe for disaster. The value has gone for Herbert to throw one pick, but the price for a pair is backable – something he did just a week ago.
Posted at 18:10 GMT on 07/11/26
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