Ross Williams previews Sunday's NFL slate, including a first trip to London for the season plus Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders.
NFL betting tips: Week 4
2pts Colts @ Commanders over 48.5 total points at 21/20 (General)
3pts Josh Allen (Bills) to score a touchdown at 4/5 (betway)
1pt Josh Allen (Bills) to score 2+ touchdowns at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Travis Kelce (Chiefs) over 47.5 receiving yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders
The NFL’s London Series kicks off this weekend at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and the match-up in store is a fascinating one. The Colts and Commanders are both 1-2, following much-needed week three victories, and both will view this game as a potential launchpad... or trap door.
A 2-2 record opens the door to a world of possibility, but falling to 1-3 at this stage is generally a grim omen.
The NFL have struggled to sell tickets for this one, but I believe those in attendance will be treated to some points. Neither side are especially potent on offence – they’re both steady and middle of the road in NFL terms, averaging 24 and 25 points per game respectively – but defensively each has major issues.
Only four of the 32 franchises have conceded 30+ points per game on average so far and the Colts and Commanders are part of that group.
Indianapolis have shipped the most overall yardage in the league too, while Washington are the second-leakiest defensive unit against the pass, giving up a massive 280 yards through the air per game.
With both offences at least buoyed by week three victory, the scene is set for a points-fest and the total match points line is steady at 48.5.
Offensively, the combined scoring of the Colts and Commanders so far equates to 49 points per game, and they’re conceding a combined 60+ points per outing.
The numbers work. Let’s take the over.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
There is nothing truly inevitable in the National Football League, but a Josh Allen rushing touchdown is pretty close.
The all-time leading quarterback in that department – who is simply extending his record week-on-week – has been borderline unstoppable of late and it’s tough to see when that will end.
Stretching back to week 17 of last season, Allen has now scored two rushing touchdowns in five of his last six games, including Buffalo’s wildcard round win over Jacksonville. If we’re talking regular-season games alone, the streak is four-straight.
It’s a remarkable record and this week, against a Patriots outfit that look a shadow of the side that contested the Super Bowl in February, you would have to fancy Allen’s chances yet again.
And yet, the market hasn’t reacted as quickly as I’d have expected. 4/5 for Allen to score anytime isn’t exactly long, but it’s much better value than many of the league’s running backs who possess a similar touchdown-scoring record. Derrick Henry, for example, is priced up around 1/2 and shorter to find the endzone.
With that in mind, it’s tough to ignore Allen’s scoring chances again, in a game Buffalo are predicted to win by a clear touchdown by the bookmakers. The anytime touchdown selection is nice and I’ll also happily have a small stab at Allen to score 2+ touchdowns, extending his prolific streak, at 4/1.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
I’m not sure what Travis Kelce did during the offseason, besides a well-documented wedding, but whatever it was, it’s worked.
Through three weeks, the Chiefs tight end has rolled back the years and looked back to his dominant best. He leads Kansas City in targets, receptions and receiving yards – and he’s also hauled in two touchdown receptions for good measure.
In what needs to be a bounce-back year for the Chiefs, they’re committing to a tried and tested method and, boy, it’s effective.
The Las Vegas Raiders – in dreamland with their 3-0 record – are Kansas City’s next opponents and recent game logs suggest they won’t be slowing Kelce down all that much.
Although the Raiders were mostly effective against tight ends in the opening fortnight, the Saints had plenty of success against them last weekend. The New Orleans duo of Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant combined for 12 catches, 86 yards and two touchdowns.
Kansas City will be very aware of this, so I’m expecting Kelce to see plenty of traffic over the middle of the field.
He’s currently priced at 5/6 with Sky Bet to go over 47.5 receiving yards and that’s a line I can get behind. The superstar TE has accumulated 71, 101 and 59 yards respectively across his three games so far, averaging 77 per match-up.
Against a defensive unit that were worked over by tight ends just seven days prior, let’s look to Travis Kelce to deliver the goods.
Posted at 14:20 BST on 03/10/26
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