Ross Williams went three-from-three with his Thursday picks and now takes a look at Sunday's Week 3 action in the NFL.
NFL betting tips: Week 3
2pts over 42.5 total match points in Texans @ Colts at 10/11 (General)
1pt Taylor (Colts) & Montgomery (Texans) both to score touchdowns at 12/5 (Sky Bet)
2pts Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) to beat the Miami Dolphins at 10/11 (General)
2pts Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) to score a touchdown at 20/23 (bet365)
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
An AFC South grudge match is one of the early focuses on Sunday and it’s a game that throws up some options for us.
The total match points line between the Colts and the Texans is set at a fairly low 42.5 and, although I can understand the impact of a couple of notable omissions, that seems very gettable.
The Colts have been a remarkably frustrating team through two weeks. Their offence has been very effective, putting up 53 points across two tough games against the Ravens and Chiefs. However, their offensive capability has been outweighed by historically bad defensive output.
Indianapolis have shipped a league-high 74 points and conceded 1,029 total yards – that’s the second-most any side has ever let slip in the first two weeks of a campaign.
As for Houston, their offence faltered against a stingy Bengals outfit last time out, putting up just six points, but they did show that they were up to the task in a blockbuster contest with the Bills in week one, scoring 31 points.
Those in opposition to taking the ‘over’ in this game will (anecdotally) point to the strength of Houston’s defence. Based on 2025 numbers, when Houston’s defence was outperformed only by the eventual Super Bowl-winning Seattle Seahawks, I get it. But this is 2026.
It’s early, but the fact of the matter is the Texans have conceded 28 points per game so far. Last season, they were conceding 17.4.
We know the Colts regularly score points. We know the Colts concede a lot of points. We know the Texans are capable of scoring points and we know the Texans are conceding more points than their norm. So, give me the over.
Hand-in-hand with this selection is a dip into the player prop market.
Headlining both of these teams is a superstar running back who knows their way to the endzone, and I suspect both will have some joy on Sunday.
JONATHAN TAYLOR is massive for the Colts, and perhaps even more so in the absence of Alec Pierce.
The Colts’ offensive success so far has leaned heavily on Taylor and that won’t be stopping any time soon. He’s scored two touchdowns in each of his opening games so far and is one of the league’s most active players in the redzone. He has ten touches inside the 20-yard line already this year and he’s converted those into three of his four scores to date.
The Texans have a similarly potent weapon in DAVID MONTGOMERY. The former Detroit Lion had a dream debut, scoring three times, but blanked against the Bengals last weekend.
Against the Colts, a team that sacrifices yardage like they’re being paid to do so, Montgomery has a near-perfect opportunity to get back into the endzone. Indianapolis have given up four rushing touchdowns already this year and it would be a surprise if we don’t see that figure rise to five on Sunday.
Both singles are very backable, but at a healthy price, I like the double.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Handicap spreads that surpass 10 points (usually) give me the fear. Back-door covers are the bane of NFL bettors. There’s nothing worse than sitting on a clear winner for the best part of two hours, only for the losing side to score late on against the backups of the side that has coasted to victory.
However...
In a world where many bookmakers provide early payouts for blowout scores, I’m a little more comfortable and we have a fixture this weekend that screams mismatch.
Nestled in the 6pm (UK) window is the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS’ first non-primetime game of the season. Under the lights, they’ve started strongly, taking down the Broncos in week one before claiming an overtime victory over the Colts last Sunday.
On both occasions, the Chiefs put up 30+ points and any fear around Patrick Mahomes’ condition, coming off the injury he suffered last season, has quickly dispersed.
Headline signing – and reigning Super Bowl MVP, no less – Kenneth Walker has looked sublime, the Chiefs’ passing game has been recognisably dynamic and even Travis Kelce, now 36 years old, has looked like his old self, leading the Chiefs in all key receiving metrics.
The chatter and buzz around the Chiefs was unusually quiet during the offseason but make no mistake, the Chiefs are still the Chiefs.
That’s bad news for the Miami Dolphins, their next opponents.
No one anticipated much from the Dolphins this season, so the opening fortnight hasn’t been a surprise, but it’s grim viewing all the same.
Miami have scored the second-fewest points (16) in the NFL and conceded a whopping 62. Malik Willis, thrust into one of the toughest gigs in the league, is the most-sacked quarterback in the NFL through two weeks and only the Titans have picked up fewer first downs than the Dolphins.
Miami have created a fresh set of downs on 26 occasions so far. For context, the Chiefs have done so 48 times.
In terms of the most important stat of all – their results – Miami head into week three with defeat margins of 14 and 22 points.
To wheel back, handicap spreads that surpass 10 points (usually) give me the fear. But on this occasion, I’ll take the Chiefs’ chances.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
With our final pick of the weekend, we’ll look to one of the league’s surprise packages.
The worst team in the NFL a year ago, the Las Vegas Raiders have had a dream start to the 2026 campaign, building a 2-0 record with wins over Miami and the Los Angeles Chargers. They’ve been decent value for the wins too, winning both by double-figure margins after putting up 26 and 27 points respectively.
The Raiders haven’t started 3-0 for five years but they will feel they have a sizeable opportunity to do so this weekend as they take on the Saints. It would be a huge motivational milestone for the franchise too, as that 2021 season with the 3-0 start was also the last time the Raiders participated in the playoffs.
Although I’m tempted to simply back Las Vegas after their strong start, New Orleans have proved tough customers in the opening fortnight. They’re currently 1-1, but the level of opposition they’ve faced elevates that form. The Saints pushed Detroit all the way in week one and shocked just about everyone, taking down Baltimore last weekend.
With that in mind, I’ll leave the result alone, but there is a player prop I like.
A rather eye-catching Raiders stat, when you dig into their back-to-back wins, is that Las Vegas have so far failed to score a single rushing touchdown. All of their scores have come via the passing of Kirk Cousins.
You’d expect, then, that the Raiders’ run game is an Achilles' heel of theirs and a genuine weak spot in their roster. But it’s not.
ASHTON JEANTY – a former College Football superstar – was drafted 6th overall last season and enjoyed a very solid rookie year, albeit on a team that ultimately struggled.
Now in his sophomore season, he’s performed pretty well, averaging 75 rushing yards across his two games so far. There are no glaringly bad numbers to be seen.
So, that first Raiders’ rushing touchdown is much more a matter of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’, and very few teams – particularly teams that are winning games – go three games without scoring on the ground.
Jeanty is available at 20/23 to score this weekend and I think that’s a pretty backable price for a player with his opportunities. It’s worth a single, but it’s also an excellent addition to any bet builder or TD acca.
The young Raider has the most redzone carries (9) among NFL backs that are yet to score a rushing touchdown this season, so he’s clearly Las Vegas’ favoured weapon in those scenarios, and to make this price more appealing, Jeanty did score two receiving touchdowns in week one.
He’s a dual-threat guy. He’s the Raiders’ main guy. And I expect him to find the endzone for us in week three.
Posted at 16:35 BST on 26/09/26
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