Ross Williams previews the first Sunday of the new NFL season and he's relying on Detroit Lions' ability to win big.
NFL betting tips: Week 1
2pts Chris Godwin Jr (Buccaneers) Over 4.5 Receptions at 23/20 (bet365)
2pts Detroit Lions (-6.5) to beat the New Orleans Saints at 20/21 (bet365)
2pts Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) to beat the Atlanta Falcons at 20/23 (bet365)
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We’ll kick off with a player prop in a game where a decent number of points are anticipated.
The points total line in the Bengals’ clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is currently set at 50.5, which suggests something of an offensive showdown. In fact, it’s the highest line of the weekend.
This is largely built around Joe Burrow’s ability to score heavily with the likes of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at his disposal. But the Bengals are just one side of the coin.
The Bucs are also capable of going big and their quarterback, Baker Mayfield, will be eager to kick off the year with a bang, with the ink barely dry on his new $165m contract.
In a contest where Tampa will have to utilise the pass game to keep pace with a healthy, explosive Cincinnati offence, I like the look of CHRIS GODWIN’s props.
The former Pro Bowl receiver averaged 5.6 targets per game in a stop-start 2025 season in which he was only active for nine of the Bucs’ 17 regular season games.
They aren’t huge numbers, but they’re solid considering Godwin’s fitness status and the fact he was often Tampa’s third receiving option behind Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka, who enjoyed a fantastic rookie season.
Heading into week one, Godwin is healthy and his position in the pecking order has improved. After a Hall of Fame-calibre career with the Bucs, Evans has moved on to the 49ers, while Egbuka has been nursing a toe injury in recent weeks.
Outside of the primary options, Tampa’s likely receiver depth chart on Sunday will feature Ted Hurst III, Tez Johnson and Kameron Johnson – a trio with 32 combined catches in the NFL. Godwin himself has 612.
Word is that Egbuka will play on Sunday, but Tampa will not want to burn their young hope too early, so it stands to reason that Godwin, the dependable veteran, will be leaned on most heavily.
Godwin is very reasonably priced at 23/20 to go over 4.5 receptions – and that feels like a nice opportunity. Over the past three years, he’s averaged eight targets in his first game of the season. More of the same, please!
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Week one match-ups are always tricky to figure out, just ask anyone who backed the Rams to win in Melbourne on Thursday night!
However, this season’s opening weekend has thrown up at least a couple of encounters that looks like fairly obvious mismatches.
One such example is the DETROIT LIONS hosting New Orleans. The Saints started incredibly slowly last season and they’re now sitting on an unwanted record of six straight defeats in the month of September.
Bucking that trend will be tough, faced with a Detroit Lions side that feel a lot better than the 9-8 record they finished the 2025 season with.
Defence was the Lions’ issue down the stretch last year but a healthy week one roster gives them the best opportunity to make amends in that department. Offensively, it’s unlikely Detroit will have any issues. They were a top-five scoring unit in the NFL last season and they are beyond explosive.
All told, this Saints match-up looks a good spot for Detroit to hit the ground running.
A spread of seven points is relatively hefty at this early stage of the season, but the Lions have promising previous. Of their nine wins last season, all but one were achieved with a 7+ margin. When the Lions win, they tend to win big, and I expect the same on Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Cooper Rush will be the Atlanta Falcons’ starting quarterback this weekend.
I will go on, but ultimately, for most, that alone will be justification enough to back the PITTSBURGH STEELERS.
Rush is a career backup, most closely affiliated with the Cowboys. Over seven seasons in Dallas, he started 14 games, before heading to Baltimore last season.
With the Ravens in 2025, he started twice, throwing four interceptions while failing to score a touchdown.
Needless to say, he isn’t likely to light up your television screen on Sunday evening.
The Falcons are in the early stages of a project and a long way from where they want to be. The last thing they needed, heading into the opening week, was to be throwing a backup QB to the wolves, but that’s the scenario they’re facing as they head to Pittsburgh.
The Steelers, on the other hand, have lofty ambitions for the 2026 season, because they simply have to. Aaron Rodgers is very much in the twilight of his career and it’s tough to imagine the last chance saloon will still be open in 2027.
The general consensus is that Pittsburgh won’t quite have enough to sustain a serious championship run this season, but they’ll certainly try and there’s no doubt they have firepower. A Steelers defence led by T.J. Watt always has to be respected and Rodgers has some real weapons at his disposal in DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr.
Enough for a fairytale Super Bowl run? Perhaps not, but certainly enough to start the season strongly against a Falcons side that will require nothing short of a one-man masterclass from Bijan Robinson to stay competitive in America’s Steel City.
Posted at 13:50 BST on 12/09/26
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