NFL Midweek Update: Super Bowl LVI injury report, MVP race and coin toss
We are down to two teams and just one game - Super Bowl LVI is next.
On Sunday night in SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles (2330 GMT), the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams will go head to head for the Vince Lombardi Trophy and the title of world champions.
Matthew Stafford vs Joe Burrow headlines a smorgasbord of fascinating personal battles and storylines as these two franchises bid to end the 2021 season on the highest of highs.
America is about to go nuts for NFL prop bets and parlay picks on the biggest sporting weekend of the year Stateside.
Our midweek update is designed to give you intel which will help your Super Bowl betting, and keep you abreast of major events around the league.
Super Bowl LVI Injury Report
Our injury report is not intended to be exhaustive but it does pick our narratives which are likely to influence the game from a betting perspective:
Cincinnati Bengals: The big doubt for the Bengals heading into the showdown at SoFi remains TE C.J. Uzomah. He left the AFC Championship Game in tears after just nine snaps with a knee injury, but later had something of a reprieve when a sprained MCL was diagnosed.
Uzomah is still not guaranteed to suit up on Sunday - this injury normally takes weeks to rehab and not a matter of days. But he is still listed as ‘day to day’ and not giving up hope.
He said: "It's the Super Bowl. I'm doing everything I can. I don't really care too much about how I'm feeling, to be honest, when I'm out there. ... I'm not missing the biggest game of my life. I'm not missing it. That's my approach going into it every day of rehab.”
Reading between the lines, if this was a regular-season game, there is no way Uzomah plays. But it’s not, it’s the Super Bowl and he may only get one shot.
Even if C.J. does take to the field Sunday it would be a miracle to expect normal production, so bet accordingly when it comes to props around his receptions and receiving yards.
Los Angeles Rams: A tale of two tight ends, and a tale of two MCLs - the Rams have exactly the same problem to headline their walking wounded.
Tyler Higbee had been an increasingly consistent contributor to the L.A. offense in the weeks leading up to the NFC title game vs San Francisco, so when he left early with a knee injury it was a blow for the home team.
Just like Uzomah, the injury looked serious, but it was also diagnosed as an MCL sprain. Higbee - like his opposite number - is up against it in his race against time to be fit for Sunday. Head Coach Sean McVay says it’s unlikely he will practice this week.
Kendall Blanton - who caught 5 balls for 57 yards against the Niners - will again deputise if Higbee cannot go.
While Higbee is the most likely Ram absentee this weekend, there are other key components of their roster with slight question marks.
Offensive lineman Joe Noteboom - excellent when playing in relief of the injured Andrew Whitworth vs the Bucs in Tampa - was injured late in the game in Florida. He subsequently missed the NFC title game and is a doubt for the Super Bowl.
Whitworth meanwhile showed up on the injury report last week despite having played vs San Francisco. He had been battling a quad injury.
Another worry for the Rams is WR Van Jefferson, who has been battling a knee injury throughout the post-season. It’s likely he will play, but potentially not at 100%.
The other notable niggles for the Rams involve RB Cam Akers and superstar CB Jalen Ramsey. Both have shoulder injuries but will be fit to start.
One spot of good news for the Rams concerns S Taylor Rapp, who was a full participant in practice late last week after recovering from a concussion.
Again, it is worth re-iterating the fact this is the Super Bowl - most of these players will suit up on Sunday. Higbee though must be extremely doubtful to play.
Super Bowl MVP: It’s a QB-driven league…
The award of Super Bowl MVP is one of THE individual honours NFL stars covet most. The biggest star in the biggest game of all.
Just like the league MVP award though, it’s now tough for anybody to win outside of the two quarterbacks.
Rule changes in recent years mean pro football is now weighted hugely towards the passing game, and the value of elite quarterbacks.
Signal callers have won MVP honours 31 times so far in 55 games - that doesn’t really show up that bias. But look at more recent figures and you’ll get the picture. Seven of the last 10 MVPs have operated under center.
Not surprisingly, if you look away from QBs then RB and WR are the most successful positions historically - each have 7 MVP awards.
Interesting to note from public betting in the U.S. this week (sportsbooks provide figures on how many bets are placed on each selection) that we have a kicker in the top five most popular picks. Namely Cincinnati rookie sensation Evan McPherson.
Also in the top five is Rams DT Aaron Donald - an absolute game wrecker on his day and not an awful pick at big odds.
Super Bowl Coin Toss - The Stats
Crazy we know, but one of the most popular prop bets for the Super Bowl is settled before the game even kicks off. Punting on the flip of a coin is apparently a big deal Stateside…
We never advocate betting on something like this unless it’s very small stakes, but if you really want the numbers, here they are:
- Out of 55 Super Bowls played, Tails has won the toss 29 times with Heads taking 26
- 31 teams have won the toss and then gone on to lose the Super Bowl
- 24 teams have won the toss and then the game
- Every team to win the toss in the last seven Super Bowls has then lost the game
Super Bowl Ads: Paying the price
The battle to produce the most impactful Super Bowl ad is a real arms race these days - we have creative agencies and movie stars battling to make it onto the screen during the big game.
The price of airtime is off the charts with America waking up on post-Super Bowl Monday to discuss the ads as well as the game.
NBC has the call this Sunday, and it’s been revealed that some companies have paid a staggering $7million for a 30-second slot during the game. The normal cost of that 30-second slot on national TV during primetime? Just $115k…
Boost your enjoyment…
One final thing to report here - we did note a nice Sky Bet price boost for the big game. You can currently get 4/1 that both teams score 24+ points on Sunday.
We really like the chances of an offensive shootout in perfect conditions in Southern California - Burrow and Stafford airing it out is an entirely plausible scenario.
Both these teams scored exactly 460 points in the regular season - an average of 27.
Sounds good to us.
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