The 2022 NFL regular season heads into its final stretch with a ton of tantalising questions still to be answered.
Week 12, as ever, delivered some stellar performances, with the Philadelphia Eagles ground game producing a night for the ages in a 40-33 win over Green Bay. Philly racked up an incredible 363 rushing yards with QB Jalen Hurts alone accounting for 157.
Cincinnati meanwhile is looking just like the team which went on a late-season tear in 2021 to reach Super Bowl LVI. Joe Burrow was again terrific in a key road win in Tennessee and now he gets BFF Ja’Marr Chase back from injury.
For the first time in league history we had game-winning two-point conversions in two games on the same weekend. Props to head coaches Brandon Staley of the Los Angeles Chargers and Doug Pederson of the Jacksonville Jaguars for the most ballsy of calls.
Our Midweek Update is designed to give you the intel and context you need when betting against the spread or putting together your NFL parlay picks.
Here are some of the major storylines right now.
NFL Injury Report
Pro football is a brutal game, played by powerful athletes at devastating speed. No wonder then that injuries play a massive part in determining which teams come out on top each February.
Here are some of the major injuries to hit the headlines in Week 12:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay Packers): We found out before kickoff against Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football that Rodgers has been dealing in recent weeks with an avulsion fracture in his throwing thumb, which will almost certainly require off-season surgery. The last thing #12 needed then was the new rib injury which forced him to leave the game at the Linc. Apparently Rodgers - despite these issues - does plan to suit up vs Chicago on Sunday.
Darnell Mooney (WR, Chicago Bears): The Chicago passing game has been pretty grim in 2022, despite the emergence of second-year QB Justin Fields. Mooney leads the team with 40 catches and 493 receiving yards, but now he is done for the year after being injured in Sunday’s loss to the Jets. He requires ankle surgery and with Fields also battling injury, the remaining weeks of the year could be ugly viewing for Bears fans.
Allen Robinson (WR, Los Angeles Rams): Another offense which could be truly horrific down the stretch belongs to the Super Bowl champion Rams. While reigning Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp is already on the sidelines, Robinson is now done for the year with a foot injury. With Matthew Stafford recovering from a concussion, an offensive line which resembles a turnstile and no running game, things could not be much worse.
Aaron Donald (DT, Los Angeles Rams): More bad news for those Rams, with three-time NFL DPOY Donald believed to be suffering from a high ankle sprain. The sort of injury which badly impacts explosive players like the All-World DT. His status is not yet known for this Sunday’s matchup with the Seattle Seahawks.
Terron Armstead (OT, Miami Dolphins): Armstead, a marquee free-agent acquisition by Miami in the off-season, has been playing through a toe injury for much of 2022. He is unlikely to be able to do the same however with the pectoral injury suffered during Sunday’s win over Houston. Armstead should return this season but his status for a three-game road trip starting in San Francisco this weekend appears very uncertain. A big blow for the streaking Dolphins.
Tristan Wirfs (OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers): The Bucs remain in possession of first place in the NFC South, but it’s hardly down to their own play. Tampa fell to 5-6 after an overtime loss to Cleveland on Sunday, and an injury to right tackle Wirfs just piled on the agony. Tristan is expected to miss 3-4 weeks with a high ankle sprain, and that is bad news for Tom Brady.
Elijah Mitchell (RB, San Francisco 49ers): Mitchell will miss the remainder of the regular season with an MCL injury sustained in Sunday’s shutout win over the New Orleans Saints. All of a sudden a 49ers backfield which looked pretty crowded after the blockbusting deal to acquire Christian McCaffrey is now very thin. The decision to trade away Jeff Wilson to Miami is one the Niners might like to have back right now.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR, Cincinnati Bengals): News now of a player who is about to return from injury. Chase has been out for multiple weeks with a hip problem, but should return for Sunday’s huge showdown with Kansas City (more on that later). He had been close to making the active roster for last Sunday’s win in Tennessee. Great news for the red-hot Joe Burrow.
NFL Odds: Stock Rising
Week 12 delivered more fantastic performances which had a significant impact on the betting lines. Here are some of the displays which really jumped out:
Josh Jacobs (RB, Las Vegas Raiders): When the Raiders are good, Jacobs is usually a major reason. He’s been incredible the last two weeks, bouncing back from a mid-season slump to key a pair of overtime road wins. His latest effort brought a massive 303 scrimmage yards in a 40-34 victory in Seattle, with 229 yards coming on the ground and 74 as a receiver. He also grabbed a pair of scores, the second of them a walk-off 86-yard game winner in overtime. Not bad for a man who is now deep into a contract year, and who was also playing through a calf injury on Sunday.
Amon-Ra St.Brown (WR, Detroit Lions): Had the best game of his excellent season so far, catching 9 Jared Goff passes for 122 yards and a score in an agonising 28-25 home loss to the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving. His performances in 2022 add to the belief that the Lions - even if the win column doesn’t show it - are heading in the right direction. With 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams almost ready to suit up after a long-term injury, the Detroit offense could look pretty scary in a week or two.
Zay Jones (WR, Jacksonville Jaguars): Trevor Lawrence had undoubtedly the finest game of his pro career so far in that epic 28-27 decision over Baltimore, and Jones was a big reason. Zay caught 11 passes for 145 yards and the game-winning two-point conversion. His grabs also racked up seven first downs for Jacksonville.
L’Jarius Sneed (CB, Kansas City Chiefs): The KC defense doesn’t get many column inches, but it is doing a pretty nice job as the season enters its final third. Sneed is one of the league’s most underrated corners and he was terrific again in a 26-10 win over the Rams. L’Jarius allowed just 9 receiving yards and picked up an interception.
Mac Jones (QB, New England Patriots): It’s been a long time since Jones looked like the exciting rookie who burst into the league in 2021. But he appears, finally, to be back. Mac was brilliant in throwing for 382 yards and a pair of scores in a heartbreaking 33-26 loss in Minnesota on Thanksgiving night. The big picture says it bodes well for the Pats down the road.
Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, New York Giants): Big Blue lost its third game in four - a 28-20 reverse at the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. But there were bright spots for a team hit by a slew of major injuries, notably a breakout game for 2022 first-round pick Thibodeaux. He was a terror off the edge, racking up nine pressures and hitting Dak Prescott on five occasions. Sacks will surely soon follow.
Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh Steelers): Pittsburgh’s win in Indianapolis on Monday Night Football was a pretty awful game against an awful team, but it did highlight the improvement made by rookie QB Pickett in recent weeks. He looked assured and confident, and got the ball out quickly to complete 20 of 28 passes for 174 yards. He also knew when to scramble, rushing for 32 yards on 6 carries. Right now his development is headed in the right direction.
Jordan Love (QB, Green Bay Packers): The QB situation in Green Bay right now has so many echoes of the time when Aaron Rodgers was waiting to take up the baton from Brett Favre. 2020 first-round pick Love has been sitting patiently waiting for his chance, and he got it when an injured Rodgers left Sunday night’s game in Philly. Love looked very sharp as he completed 6 of 9 passes for 113 yards and a score. Particularly noteworthy was the 63-yarder to exciting rookie WR Christian Watson. That play should be a glimpse into the future of this franchise, and the offseason could be pretty ‘interesting’ in Wisconsin.
NFL Playoff Scenarios: Who makes the post-season?
It’s never too early to start talking about the playoff schedule and post-season scenarios, so here we are. If the tournament began today, these teams would be playing on:
AFC
● 1. Kansas City Chiefs 9-2
● 2. Miami Dolphins 8-3
● 3. Tennessee Titans 7-4
● 4. Baltimore Ravens 7-4
● 5. Buffalo Bills 8-3
● 6. Cincinnati Bengals 7-4
● 7. New York Jets 7-4
NFC
● 1. Philadelphia Eagles 10-1
● 2. Minnesota Vikings 9-2
● 3. San Francisco 49ers 7-4
● 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-6
● 5. Dallas Cowboys 8-3
● 6. New York Giants 7-4
● 7. Washington Commanders 7-5
NFL Game of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (9.25pm UK, Sunday)
We make no apologies whatsoever for including the Bengals in our GOTW once again - this should be an absolute classic.
Joe Burrow vs Patrick Mahomes in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game is must-watch TV, and KC will have revenge in mind after losing to the Bengals twice in 2021.
Their regular-season meeting was perhaps the moment when we all realised that Cincinnati was legit as it set off on that epic run to Super Bowl LVI.
On that occasion Burrow and his sensational WR Ja’Marr Chase really went off to destroy the Chiefs secondary. Burrow threw for 446 yards and 4 scores, three of them to Chase. Ja’Marr finished with 266 receiving yards.
A couple of months later the Bengals would stun Kansas City again in the playoffs, and Burrow and co have that same sort of look about them in 2022 too. They have recovered from an 0-2 start to 7-4 and joint first place in the AFC North.
Cincinnati’s current three-game win streak is all the more impressive given Chase has been out injured for all of them, but the great news is he should return on Sunday.
The Chiefs - a 2.5-point favourite in the early betting - will again be formidable opponents with Mahomes playing at MVP level. The decision to trade away Tyreek Hill to Miami is now long forgotten and KC is 9-2 and currently sitting in the AFC’s #1 seed playoff position.
This should be an offensive spectacular, one of the NFL’s games of the year. Enjoy.
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