OddsCritic looks at all things NFL free agency with the key areas such as salary cap and key storylines covered.
The 2021 season is now very much in the rear view mirror and we are on to 2022 - starting with the joy that is NFL free agency.
In a few short days the 2022 league year will officially begin and teams can begin retooling their rosters for another assault on a Lombardi trophy.
While the Draft gives all 32 teams the chance for an infusion of young, cheap talent from the collegiate ranks, free agency provides the opportunity to pick up proven veterans.
Not only does free agency provide the first clues to a franchise and its aims for the coming season, it also informs how that team will approach the Draft. This is all about filling holes and making weaknesses a strength.
2022 also provides the most fascinating backdrop to free agency in a number of years - the potential for a number of high-profile quarterbacks to be traded could have huge ramifications across the league.
Here is all you need to know as we count down to the big kickoff.
When does NFL free agency begin?
Set your watches for 4pm ET (or 9pm UK time) on Wednesday March 16. That is when the league year starts and teams can officially start signing unrestricted free agents (UFA).
There are two key dates for your diary before the new league year starts and free agency begins - the first is the date by which teams can place the franchise or transition tag on players (more on that later). That is 4pm ET (again 9pm UK) on Tuesday March 8.
The next key date is 12noon ET (5pm UK) on Monday March 14 - from that moment on UFAs can start to negotiate with teams ahead of the start of free agency.
What are the NFL franchise and transition tags?
Most NFL rules favour the teams, and this one is definitely high on the list of things they like.
NFL teams can place the franchise tag on a player who is out of contract to ensure they do not become an UFA. They effectively enter into a guaranteed one-year deal with that player, at a price which is an average of the top five salaries in the league at that position. Complicated stuff, and not cheap.
There are two types of franchise tag - exclusive and non-exclusive:
- The exclusive tag means no other team can sign that player.
- Non-exclusive means they can - but it would cost them two first-round draft picks.
As for the transition tag, that is slightly different. It pays the player an average of the 10 top salaries at the position. It also gives other teams the opportunity to make the player an offer, and that current player’s team the opportunity to match the offer.
Crucially though, if the current team loses a player who is on the transition tag, they get zero compensation. So in short, a cheaper option but with significantly more risk.
Each team can only use the franchise and transition tags once each offseason, and they can still sign those players to long-term deals if they do it before mid-July. If they don’t, the player goes through the whole season on the tag.
It’s easy to see why the franchise tag is one of the most prized assets from an ownership perspective in the NFL’s CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement). It pretty much guarantees you don’t lose the one player you really want to keep the most.
2022 NFL Salary Cap: How much is it, and which teams are over?
For the first time in living memory the NFL salary cap fell in 2021 - thank COVID-19 and lost revenues for that. It is back on the increase this year though - up to $208.2million from $182million.
All teams have to be under the cap (their top 51 player contracts) when the league year starts, so the situation is changing literally by the minute as franchises restructure contracts and release players to hit the magic number.
As of now, on March 1, the top-line stories are as follows:
Teams with best cap situation: The Miami Dolphins have a ton of money to potentially spend - they are currently $60million under the cap. More than enough to go get a franchise QB if they decide Tua is definitively not the answer. Jacksonville meanwhile has $56million to play with, and the top pick in the 2022 Draft. Basically the capital to make a huge difference this offseason with the right moves. The Los Angeles Chargers also have $56million banked and with Justin Herbert still on that rookie deal, the window is now. Cincinnati meanwhile, coming off that narrow defeat in Super Bowl LVI, is $49million under the cap - expect them to spend a lot of that shoring up Joe Burrow’s offensive line.
Teams with worst cap situation: The New Orleans Saints are currently $42million over, but it’s relatively straightforward for them to restructure deals to get under by March 16 (they were more than $70million over last month). Green Bay is next at $30million over and they have already freed up a significant amount of space. Aaron Rodgers will inform their next moves.
Major NFL offseason storylines
Quarterback Frenzy: While Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson will never become free agents, their futures cast a massive shadow over the entire offseason.
What happens with these three elite quarterbacks will shape the coming months for a ton of teams, and all three could potentially be on the move in blockbusting trades.
Rodgers is set to make a decision on his Green Bay future in the next few days, with staying put, being traded or retirement all apparently in play.
Watson meanwhile is likely to be traded by Houston before the Draft, but not until criminal allegations of sexual misconduct have been resolved.
Finally Wilson is again the subject of trade rumours already in 2022, having provided one of the major storylines of last year’s offseason. It appears his time in Seattle could be up with a blockbusting departure eminently possible.
Decoding Davante: When Aaron Rodgers finally makes his decision, it will see several other chips start to fall. None bigger than Packers WR Davante Adams.
Adams, one of THE premier receivers in the NFL, is scheduled to hit free agency on March 16 but it would be shocking to see that happen. Whether he is franchised or signs a new deal though will likely come down to which way Rodgers goes.
Packaging Picks? Three teams have multiple first-round selections in the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft. But what do they do with those picks?
There are no generational QB talents in the Draft this year, meaning the value of those high picks is probably not what it would be in another offseason.
It will be fascinating to see whether teams like Philadelphia (three first-rounders in 2022) use those to move around the board OR mimic the world champion Rams by trading them away to pick up premier veterans. Ideally a franchise QB.
The draft is a moveable feast of course, and that note around the lack of blue-chip talent this year means 2023 picks could turn out to be more valuable. Watch this space.
A Copycat League: Pro football is like most businesses - whatever is working right now gets copied. With that in mind, it will be fascinating to see which teams aim to emulate the ultimate ‘win now’ model which took the Los Angeles Rams to Super Bowl glory last month.
Trading away premium draft picks for talented veterans was a huge difference maker for the Rams as they acquired the likes of Jalen Ramsey, Matthew Stafford and Von Miller en route to a Lombardi trophy. It would be no surprise to see other teams try to employ a similar model now.
